Alex Michelson has managed to compile a tidy season up to this point, bringing a 13-9 record into this year’s Madrid Open.
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Madrid Open
La Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 128 Matches- 23rd April
Alex Michelson 0.75 vs Alexander Bublik 1.04
The young American was especially impressive in the earlier stages of the campaign, reaching the final 16 of the Aussie Open before a solid semifinal run in Delray Beach. He started his clay-court campaign in encouraging fashion, reaching a 2nd career ATP Tour clay-court quarterfinal in Houston (where he was soundly beaten by Frances Tiafoe). Michelson has a potent serve, and his groundstrokes are getting stronger with every event. However, he struggles for consistency and can veer in quality from game to game. He needs to learn a little more patience and become more rally-resistant if he wishes to become more competitive on clay. That being said, Madrid is traditionally one of the quicker clay-courts out there and could give him some more purchase for his zippy groundstrokes (and serve).
Alexander Bublik is at serious risk of exiting the top 100 if he doesn’t get his act together. Lest we forget, he reached a career-high ranking of 17th just last May (having just reached the final in Dubai). The mercurial Kazakh has been in dreadful form this year, bringing a 3-10 tour-level record into this event. He has looked even worse on the clay, losing in Monte-Carlo qualifying before a disappointing first-round exit in Munich. Bublik has been a consistent presence in the minor ATP Tour events over the last few years, reaching nine finals since 2021. However, he is yet to reach a clay-court final in his entire career. Bublik plays a weird, detached form of first-strike tennis, leaning on a huge serve and erratic forehand. He also loves to break the momentum of rallies by throwing in crazy drop-shots (not to mention some underarm serves). Oft criticized for his somewhat laissez-faire approach to the game, Bublik will need a minor miracle to turn his from around on the sticky stuff.
The Verdict: Michelson to win in straight sets at 1.7- This will be their first career meeting. I really don’t see how Bublik is going to pick himself up for this. Michelson reached the quarterfinals in Houston last time out and Bublik looks completely at sea right now. Sure, Bublik does have the inalienable ability to turn it up out of nowhere (and he did reach the semifinals in Lyon last year). I just think that Michelson is maturing and should be able to force the Kazakh into a host of errors.
