This promises to be a tantalizing round of 32 clash. 8th seed Denis Shapovalov has had a real rollercoaster of a campaign. He started in ordinary fashion, failing to win back-to-back matches in each of his first three tournaments (the Aussie Open included).
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Bavarian International Tennis Championships (BMW Open)
MTTC Iphitos, Munich, Germany (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 15th April
Denis Shapovalov (8) 0.76 vs Gael Monfils 1.04
But he roared back to relevance in Dallas, beating three top ten players to claim his 3rd career title (and first ATP 500 crown). He backed that up with a semifinal run in Acapulco but has struggled since, underwhelming during the ‘Sunshine Double’ before losing his maiden clay-court match of the season in Monte-Carlo. The hard-hitting Canadian plays a brand of first-strike tennis that isn’t entirely conducive to the vagaries of clay (he is yet to win a clay-court title and Roland Garros is the only slam where he has never progressed beyond the 3rd round). Having said that, he has produced some eye-catching performances in Masters 1000 clay-court events, previously reaching the semifinals in Madrid and Rome.
38-year-old Gael Monfils isn’t quietly riding off into the sunset just yet. The charismatic Frenchman is 14-5 for the season, revelling in a more streamlined approach to the game. Monfils is playing far more aggressively on serve this year, looking to avoid the type of convoluted rallies he was renowned for in his pomp. He started the year in historic fashion, winning in Auckland to become the oldest winner on tour since Ken Rosewall in 1977. He performed admirably at the Aussie Open, withdrawing through injury during a tight 4th round tussle with Ben Shelton. He has faded slightly since those highs (though he did go 5-2 during the ‘Sunshine Double’). He was beaten by Rublev in straight-sets in Monte-Carlo. A renowned clay-court player in his prime, I think that Monfils is perhaps not best suited to these surfaces anymore (particularly on clay as slow as this). Monfils hasn’t reached a clay-court final since 2016, but he does have the innate ability to defy expectations.
The Verdict: Monfils to win in straight-sets at 2.35- Monfils leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning their most recent encounter in straight sets at last year’s Rotterdam Open. This will be their maiden clay-court clash. This should be a fascinating encounter, with both players looking to take the upper hand with their ferocious forehands. Shapovalov has been extremely inconsistent this year and I think he will get frustrated by these slow conditions.
