2023 Monte Carlo champ Andrey Rublev is having the type of yo-yo season that Jelena Ostapenko would be proud of.
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Monte-Carlo Masters
Monte Carlo Country Club, Roquebrune-Cap-Martin, France (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 9th April
Andrey Rublev (7) 0.63 vs Gael Monfils 1.24
The hard-hitting Russian is 9-7 for the campaign (seemingly humdrum numbers that usually denote an uninteresting start to the season). Nothing could be further from the truth. Rublev has gone from the sublime to the ridiculous this season. He won his 17th ATP Tour title in Qatar, taking down an in-form Jack Draper in the final. But he has suffered either side of that shining moment, eliminated in the opening match of five separate events (including his two ‘Sunshine Double’ appearances). In fact, Rublev comes into this event on a three-match losing streak. Perhaps the hardcourt aficionado will welcome the move to clay. Rublev has proven to be an astute clay-court operator over the years, winning back-to-back Masters 1000 clay-court events in 2023 and 2024 (Monte Carlo and Madrid respectively). A two-time finalist here, Rublev will use his athleticism to chase down everything while backing his humungous forehand to penetrate the court.
Gael Monfils improved to 15-5 for the season after a typically combative comeback win over Fabian Marozsan. Monfils lost the first set 6-4, but rallied back to comfortably win 4-6, 6-1, 6-1. Monfils was dynamic from the back of the court, hitting 28 winners to just 20 unforced errors. Turning 39 in September, the ever-popular Frenchman is enjoying a wonderfully fertile start to the campaign. He created history in Auckland, becoming the oldest men’s singles title winner since Ken Rosewall at the 1977 Hong Kong Open (Rosewall was 43). He then performed brilliantly at the Aussie Open, withdrawing from his 4th round clash with Ben Shelton due to injury. He underperformed in the Middle East but enjoyed a solid ‘Sunshine Double’, going 5-2 in the two Masters 1000 events. An elite mover, Monfils has looked to simplify his game at this stage of his career. He is looking to finish off more points before they become protracted rallies (his serve and forehand combination has been wonderful to behold). He has some genuine expertise in this event, reaching the semis in 2015 before a runner-up finish in 2016. Monfils’ amazing athleticism gives him an edge on these sluggish clay surfaces (even at this age).
The Verdict: Rublev to win in straight sets at 1.49- Rublev leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning their most recent meeting at the 2023 US Open. This will be their first ever clay-court meeting. I just have a feeling that we could see the best of Rublev this week. A two-time finalist here, Rublev has the raw power to penetrate these slow surfaces. Monfils- at this stage of his career- would probably prefer this match to take place on a quicker surface, where he would look to dictate with his serve and forehand. I think that Rublev could have the athleticism to outlast Monfils in the more protracted rallies.
