This all-American clash feels much more important than it would have five months ago. 2023 US Open champ Coco Gauff is in the midst of a mini existential crisis.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Miami Open
Miami Gardens, Florida (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 64 Matches- 20th March
Coco Gauff (3) 0.3 vs Sofia Kenin 2.45
This all-American clash feels much more important than it would have five months ago. 2023 US Open champ Coco Gauff is in the midst of a mini existential crisis. She ended 2024 in exultant fashion, winning her maiden WTA Finals title in what felt like an ominous performance. And she looked serene in the opening salvos of this season, helping guide USA to the United Cup before a solid quarterfinal showing at the Aussie Open. She has just lost her rhythm since Melbourne, going 2-3 in her subsequent three events (including two first-round Middle East exits). She has been fighting some serious serving demons this year (she served a frankly incredible 38 double faults at Indian Wells). Her forehand has also been vulnerable, and she desperately needs to make a statement this fortnight. Gauff is one of the most talented players on the planet, using her unparalleled athleticism and vicious groundstrokes to bully opponents. I just think she has lost her way trying to replicate the all-out physicality of Aryna Sabalenka.
2020 Aussie Open champ Sofia Kenin continued her encouraging recent form, taking down Petra Kvitova 6-4, 7-5 in what could have been a tricky first-round encounter. Kenin stood firm in the face of Kvitova’s serving barrage, absorbing 13 aces but punishing the Czech on her 2nd delivery (she won 70% of her 2nd serve return points). Kenin was brilliant on her own serve, winning 71% of her first-serve points. Kenin is now 10-7 for the season. She was particularly impressive in Dubai, accounting for the trio of Vekic, Paolini and Kostyuk. I think that these conditions will probably feel similar to those found in Dubai. Kenin is moving better with every match and her forehand looks to be in tiptop shape. Her victory over Kvitova improved her humdrum Miami record to 6-5. But she will know that Gauff is vulnerable and will look to capitalize on this opportunity.
The Verdict: Kenin to win in three at 6.4- Gauff and Kenin share the head-to-head spoils at two wins apiece, with Gauff winning their most recent meeting at this year’s Aussie Open (in straight sets). I’m going for the ‘Hail Mary’ shot here. Kenin has been battle-hardened in recent weeks and should pose a stern test for Gauff. She is hitting cleanly off both wings and serving with great efficiency: she landed 88% of her first serves against Kvitova. This is also the only WTA 1000 event in which Gauff has failed to reach a quarterfinal.
