What a difference a few weeks makes. Stefanos Tsitsipas really struggled in the early stages of the season, losing in the first round of the Aussie Open to Alex Michelson.
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Indian Wells Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 11th-12th March
11th March
Stefanos Tsitsipas (8) 0.6 vs Holger Rune (12) 1.3
What a difference a few weeks makes. Stefanos Tsitsipas really struggled in the early stages of the season, losing in the first round of the Aussie Open to Alex Michelson. His form just seemed to nosedive these past 18 months or so (coincidentally at the same time as Paula Badosa- his girlfriend- improved). But he found his groove in Dubai, winning his first hardcourt title since the 2023 Los Cabos Open (breaking a streak of eleven straight ATP Tour 500 final defeats in the process). This past week, Tsitsipas has extended his current winning streak to seven matches following comfortable wins over Seyboth Wild and Matteo Berrettini. He has been serving with ruthless efficient at this year’s Indian Wells Masters, winning 50 of 60 first-serve points. He has hit 36 total winners to just 26 unforced errors (which is a brilliant ratio in slow, blustery conditions). A former French Open finalist, Tsitsipas thrives in slightly slower conditions (he has won the Monte Carlo Masters three times). Having said that, he hasn’t really thrived here in the past (a quarterfinal run in 2021 was his best result).
Temperamental Dane Holger Rune will be looking to end Tsitsipas’ winning streak this week. Rune has been erratic this season, bringing an 8-6 record into this clash. He showed some positive signs in Melbourne, pushing eventual winner Jannik Sinner to four sets in their round of 16 clash. But he has been poor since then, facing early exits in Buenos Aires and Rotterdam. He was also forced to withdraw from Acapulco with an apparent bout of food poisoning. Rune has looked more at home in these slightly blustery, sticky conditions, comfortably seeing off Moutet before an excellent comeback win over in-form Frenchman Ugo Humbert. His defensive prowess makes him an ideal fit for these slightly sluggish conditions. But he hasn’t been perfect this week, serving ten double-faults and committing a whopping 59 unforced errors in his two matches thus far. Still, Rune’s win over Humbert was a testament to his ability to grind out results on these surfaces (he reached back-to-back quarterfinals in 2022 and 2023).
The Verdict: Tsitsipas to win in straight sets at 1.46- Rune leads the head-to-head 3-0, with Tsitsipas retiring injured in their most recent meeting (at the 2023 ATP Finals). This should be a fascinating cat and mouse clash, with Tsitsipas looking to be the aggressor while Rune sits back and looks for spots to counterattack. I ultimately think that Tsitsipas will emerge victorious. He is playing great, percentage tennis while Rune is simply committing too many unforced errors.
