This should be a fascinating rematch of last year’s Qatar Open final (won by Khachanov). Two-time Grand Slam semi-finalist Karen Khachanov is a prototypical modern hardcourt player, relying on a strong serve and powerful groundstrokes off both wings.
2025 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Indian Wells Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 64 Matches- 7th-8th March
8th March
Karen Khachanov (22) vs Jakub Mensik
This should be a fascinating rematch of last year’s Qatar Open final (won by Khachanov). Two-time Grand Slam semi-finalist Karen Khachanov is a prototypical modern hardcourt player, relying on a strong serve and powerful groundstrokes off both wings. He does tend to lack variety at times and can become a tad one-dimensional. Still, he is a supreme athlete and when he is on, he is on. He won his 6th and 7th ATP Tour titles last year (in Qatar and Almaty). He ended the year in encouraging fashion, winning the Almaty title before finishing runner-up in Vienna. He unfortunately hasn’t been able to transfer that late-year success into any type of form this year (he is 1-4 in his last five matches). To be fair, he pushed Medvedev to three in Qatar before going down in three to Tsitsipas in Dubai (Tsitsipas would go on to win the Dubai title). So, his recent record is a bit misleading. He reached the quarters here back in 2019, backing that up with a 4th round run in 2020.
19-year-old Czech Jakub Mensik is really one for the future. He enjoyed a breakthrough 2024 campaign, reaching a maiden tour-level final in Qatar before a quarterfinal run at the Shanghai Masters. He was particularly impressive on those Shanghai hardcourts, taking down Andrey Rublev and Grigor Dimitrov with some no-nonsense hardcourt tennis. He looked similarly adept in Australasia at the start of the year, reaching back-to-back quarterfinals in Brisbane and Auckland before a 3rd round run at the Aussie Open (where he inexplicably threw away a two-set lead against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina). He underwhelmed in his next two outings but looked solid in his Indian Wells opener, seeing off the big-hitting Tomas Etcheverry 6-4, 7-6. It was an error-strewn contest, with both players having to adapt to the blustery conditions. Still, Mensik would hit almost double the number of winners as his opponent (25 to 13). He was also decisive when it mattered, converting four of five break-point opportunities.
The Verdict: Khachanov to win in straight sets at – Khachanov leads the head-to-head 1-0, overcoming the young Czech in straight sets in last year’s Doha final (though that first set tiebreak was epic). I think that Khachanov should have the experience to see off the youngster (especially if the conditions remain blustery). Mensik loves quick surfaces and can become a bit impatient in stickier conditions. I expect Khachanov to play the percentage tennis, perhaps playing a little more on the counterattack.
