Joe Highsmith created some history this weekend, becoming the first man since Brandt Snedeker at the 2016 Farmers to take victory after making the cut on the mark.
2025 US PGA Tour
Signature Event
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida
6th-9th March
Joe Highsmith created some history this weekend, becoming the first man since Brandt Snedeker at the 2016 Farmers to take victory after making the cut on the mark. Highsmith had a sneaky 5-footer on Friday afternoon just to make the cut (it would have been four missed cuts in six events had he missed the tricky right-to-left putt). But he managed to find the back of the cup and would shoot 64-64 on the weekend for one of the most improbable victories in recent tour memory. As a result, Highsmith has played his way into the Masters and US PGA Championship (as well as this week’s Signature Event). The next stop in the Florida Swing takes us to the 4th Signature Event of the season: the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event has always been one of the most iconic non-Majors in all of golf (largely because its namesake- Mr. Palmer- is arguably still the most beloved figure in the game). The King- as he was affectionately known- was one of the key figures in making golf what it is today, and this event was very much his brainchild.
Formerly known as the Florida Citrus Open, Arnold Palmer raised the status of this event when he won it back in 1971. He took over hosting duties in 1979 and moved the event to its current home: Bay Hill Country Club. It was known as the Bay Hill Invitational for some time but is now well established as the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Tiger Woods has won this event a record eight times, but he will not be in action this week, still recovering from the passing of his mother Kultilda. The winner of this event receives a swanky little tartan jacket (the 2nd coolest sartorial item in all of golf). Thie tournament was elevated to Signature Status last season. It will be one of only three Signature Events that will include a halfway cut (the others being the Genesis and the Memorial). It is a limited-field event that will feature a cut at the halfway point. The top 50 and ties will play the weekend (plus any player within ten strokes of the lead). And it will all play out on one of the most iconic layouts in US golf: Bay Hill.
Designed by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee, Bay Hill opened its gates all the way back in 1960. But Arnold Palmer altered the destiny of the course when he bought it back in 1974 (with the direct intention of turning it into this dream tournament). This event has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour since 1979. Bay Hill has changed dramatically over the years, as Palmer couldn’t resist tinkering with his baby (this event has been played as both a par 70 and par 72). This is a stern test of classical shot-making and shot-shaping (little wonder Tiger flourished here). Recent winners like DeChambeau and McIlroy suggest that distance off the tee is a plus (immortalized by DeChambeau’s herculean feats at the 6th in 2021). But then you have the metronomic Molinari winning in 2018 to counterbalance that. The real key to success at Bay Hill is approach play. These vast TifEagle Bermuda greens are extremely tough to navigate. They are sometimes prepared at a lighting fast 13.5 on the stimp and feature tricky runoff areas that resemble Augusta. Players will need strong
iron play (seven of the last eight winners have finished inside the top ten for GIR). Links specialists also tend to thrive around this layout (which is especially true when the winds gets up).
Defending champ Scottie Scheffler will be looking to win here for the 3rd time in four seasons. Scheffler finished 3rd at Torrey Pines last time out and looks in ominous form ahead of his Augusta defence. Rory McIlroy is a former champion here, with course figures reading 11-27-4-1-6-5-10-13-2-21. He won at Pebble Beach but ran into some putting issues at Torrey Pines. He will use this as an opportunity to clean up his short game ahead of both the Players and Augusta. Ludvig Aberg will also be making his first appearance since conquering the elite field at Torrey Pines. Xander Schauffele is slated to return from his rib injury while the likes of Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa will look to build on solid recent form.
Past Winners
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15)
2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020: Tyrell Hatton (-4)
2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
Betting Favourites (To Win): Scottie Scheffler (9/1), Rory McIlroy (16/1), Ludvig Aberg (20/1), Xander Schauffele (25/1), Justin Thomas (25/1)
Value Bets
Shane Lowry- To Win (45/1)
Florida resident Shane Lowry looks like brilliant value this week. The former Open champion is an exceptional links player who doesn’t mind if the wind picks up (in fact he relishes it). He finally got to grips with this layout last year, finishing in solo 3rd. He has looked solid this year, finishing runner-up at Pebble Beach and T11 at last week’s Cognizant Classic (where he was excellent from tee-to-green). Lowry’s chances tend to increase with course difficulty, and he could be in the mix this week.
Viktor Hovland- To Win (45/1)
Hovland doesn’t arrive in stellar form, missing the cut at the Genesis and failing to finish inside the top 20 in any of his first three events. I just think there is too much quality there for that form to
continue. The 2023 FedEx Cup champ finished inside the top 25 in half of his events last year (eight of 16). He also has a solid bank of course form, making the cut in all six of his visits to Bay Hill (highlighted by a T2 finish in 2022). I really think he could be one to look for in the place markets.
The Man to Beat- Ludvig Aberg- To Win (20/1)
Scheffler is obviously a massive favourite but has made some uncharacteristic errors this year (making those 9/1 odds look a little short). McIlroy’s putting woes at Torrey Pines also give me some pause for concern. I think that Swede Ludvig Aberg looks like the best value this week. Bay Hill is a difficult course that really puts a premium on long-game prowess. Aberg fits that description to a tee (as evidenced by his sensational win at Torrey Pines). He has finished 24th and 25th here in the past (not exactly electrifying). I just think that Torrey Pines success augers well for this season.
