Ugo Humbert is probably one of the most dangerous hardcourt players in the world right now (especially when you discount the rigors of Grand Slam tennis).
2025 ATP Tour
ATP 500
Dubai Tennis Championship
Aviation Club Tennis Centre, Dubai, UAE (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 25th February
Ugo Humbert (5) 0.8 vs Jiri Lehecka 0.98
He enjoyed a marvellous 2024 campaign that saw him reach four hardcourt finals. He won this title last year and would go on to reach the biggest final of his career in the closing chapters of the season, finishing runner-up to Alex Zverev in the Paris Masters final. And he just seems to be going from strength to strength this year, bringing a 9-2 record into this week’s renewal. Humbert was scheduled to play in Qatar but instead opted to take a week off after defending his Marseille crown. The big-serving lefty has turned into a brilliant hardcourt operator, using his whippy serve and astute volleying skills to keep his opponents under constant attack.
Jiri Lehecka picked up the biggest win of his career in Qatar, taking down Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals to register his first ever victory against a top three player. He led Jack Draper by a set in the semifinals but ultimately succumbed to the Brit (he did appear to have some lingering injury concerns). Still, Lehecka is fast becoming one of the most consistent young players on the tour. The big-serving Czech made some real breakthroughs last year, winning a maiden title and reaching a first Grand Slam semifinal. And he started this year in fine style, winning his 2nd career title in Brisbane before an impressive 4th round run at the Aussie Open. Lehekca is now 13-3 for the season. His serve really dipped in the latter portions of his semifinal clash with Draper (he ultimately only landed 58% of his first-serve points in the match). He may need to up those numbers as he comes up against the in-form Humbert.
The Verdict: Humbert to win in straight-sets at 1.85- This will be their first career meeting. I think that Humbert’s aggressive, in-your-face style could overwhelm the baseline-hugging Czech. Humbert has a multifaceted game and will look to come to the net as often as possible. I think this could put some pressure on the Czech. Also, these courts looked quite quick last week and that should play into Humbert’s hands.
Matteo Berrettini 0.41 vs Gael Monfils 1.85
This promises to be a blockbuster first-round tie between two resurgent players. 28-year-old Italian Matteo Berrettini has been unlucky with injuries in his career. The former Wimbledon runner-up returned to action last year after a series of debilitating foot issues. But the big-hitting Italian really enjoyed himself in the fringe ATP 250 events, winning three titles and reaching another final in a
pretty impressive return to competitive action. However, he struggled to get things going in the more celebrated events. He started this year in similarly underwhelming fashion, going 1-3 in his first three events. But he exploded into life in Qatar, picking up arguably the biggest win of his career with a systematic straight-sets dismantling of Novak Djokovic. He then took out Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor to register back-to-back wins for the first time since October. He capitulated in the quarterfinal stage, throwing away a one-set lead against the dangerous Jack Draper. Still, Berrettini played at a high level last week, firing 52 aces over three matches. His whippy forehand was in good working order, and he will take some beating this week.
The ever-popular Frenchman Gael Monfils will be making his first appearance since a heartbreaking exit at this year’s Aussie Open. The Frenchman was in resurgent form at the start of the year, winning his 13th career title at the ASB Classic. He rode that form into Melbourne, upsetting 4th seed Taylor Fritz en route to a round of 16 berth. He gave Ben Shelton a good run for his money in their round of 16 clash, unfortunately having to withdraw with a back injury whilst trailing two sets to one. Still, it says something about Monfils’ determination that he- at the age of 38- can still roll off an eight-match winning streak. He has looked to be a touch more aggressive in his later years, looking to dominate with a solid serve and heavy forehand. But if will have to overcome a significant head-to-head disparity if he wishes to progress.
The Verdict: Berrettini to win in three at 2.55- Berrettini leads the head-to-head 3-0. In fact, Berrettini has won all three of their matches on hardcourts. He has a more explosive overall game (Monfils has been guilty of being a little too reactive in the past). However, this version of Monfils is a tad more direct and could put pressure on Berrettini. However, these courts looked quite brisk last week during the women’s event and that makes me lean slightly more in Berrettini’s direction.
