Ludvig Aberg took a major step towards superstardom last week, holding off an elite field to win the Genesis Invitational (the 3rd Signature Event of the season).
2025 US PGA Tour
Mexico Open at Vidanta
The Norman Signature Course, Vidanta Vallarta, Vallarta, Mexico
20th-23rd February
It was a performance that highlighted grit and class and he will no doubt be in the hunt for some Major glory this year. The tour moves from Torrey Pines to one of the younger events on the current PGA Tour itinerary: the Mexico Open. The Mexico Open dates back to 1944 and remains Mexico’s national golf championship. It struggled for relevance in seasons past, shuffling between lesser circuits such as the Tour de las Americas and Korn Ferry Tour. It received a real shot of adrenaline in 2022, elevated to full PGA Tour status for the first time in its existence (making this the 4th renewal of the tournament). Every edition has been played on the same course: the Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta.
Designed by the Great White Shark Greg Norman, the Norman Signature Course is one of the most visually stunning pitstops on the entire tour. Situated near the Pacific Open and Banderas Bay, the course navigates its way along the banks of the Ameca River, providing views of the Sierra Madres that could have been ripped out of a travel brochure. The course was opened in 2015 and is laid to Pasaplaum (the de facto turf used in this part of the world). It is a hefty par 71, measuring just under 7,500 yards from the tips. That- combined with generous fairways and minimal rough- makes this an enticing prospect for the bombers (Rahm, Finau, and Knapp are proof positive of this). But early stats seem to suggest that approach play could prove important this week. The greens are large and slippery, requiring accurate approach shots to create birdie opportunities. Players may also need to catch fire with the putter in what has become a relatively low-scoring affair.
Taking one look at this field, you would think that Elon Musk had somehow got his hands on it. This is a decimated field, with most of the elite pros taking a much-needed breather after an intense start to the campaign (there have already been three Signature Events this year). Akshay Bhatia rightly leads the markets after a highly creditable top-ten finish at Torrey Pines. It says something about the relative strength of this week’s event that Rasmus Hojgaard is currently the 2nd favorite (the Dane has failed to make much impact on this side of the pond and was cut at Torrey Pines). Kurt Kitayama has finished runner-up in this event in the past and will be looking for another strong showing this week. Elsewhere, the likes of Michael Kim and Patrick Rodgers will look to capitalize after some recent near-misses.
Past Winners
2024: Jake Knapp (-19)
2023: Tony Finau (-24)
2022: Jon Rahm (-17)
Betting Favourites (To Win): Akshay Bhatia (16/1), Rasmus Hojgaard (18/1), Kurt Kitayama (22/1), Sam Stevens (22/1), Patrick Rodgers (25/1)
Value Bets
Jake Knapp- To Win (35/1)
Defending champ Jake Knapp could roar back to relevance with another title charge this week. Sure, his form fell off a cliff after his stunning win last year. But this is a depleted field, and Knapp’s powerful driving should theoretically give him a major edge. He has been improving late, making the cut in his last four events (including a season-best T17 at last week’s Genesis Invitational). The former nightclub bouncer ranked 5th in SG: Approach last week. Tony Finau and Jon Rahm have both won this title and finished runner-up on another occasion. This shows that familiarity with this quirky Paspalum layout pays off.
Alex Smalley- To Win (45/1)
Alex Smalley could prove a smart play this week. The Duke graduate ranks in the top ten in the field for SG: Total on Paspalum. He also ranks inside the top ten for SG: Total on resort courses. He has above-average length and employs an aggressive style (which bodes well for success around here). He finished T21 in his last start at TPC Scottsdale. He has also finished 6th here in the past and could be one to watch in this low-key field.
The Man to Beat- Patrick Rodgers- To Win (25/1)
Patrick Rodgers looks like a steal at 25/1 this week. The Indiana native followed a missed cut at TPC Scottsdale with an incredible performance at Torrey Pines, ultimately settling for a T3 at the Genesis Invitational. He was 3rd in SG: Off the Tee and 4th in SG: Putting last week (which augers well for success at the Norman Signature Course). He has an extremely solid bank of form in this event, finishing in the top ten in all three previous renewals. Rodgers is trending in the right direction and could flourish in one of the weakest fields you will see all year.
