The Australian Open continues this week as Aryna Sabalenka faces Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova while Coco Gauff goes up against Paula Badosa in the competition’s quarter-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park
Selected QF matches – 21 January
Aryna Sabalenka 1/10 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 58/10
It’s amusing to think that Aryna Sabalenka was once considered a shrinking violet on the biggest stage. The Belarusian World No.1 was in a sadistic mood in her round of 16 clash with Russian teenager Mirra Andreeva, hitting 15 winners to just 11 unforced errors in a bruising 6-1, 6-2 win (the defensively minded Russian was always going to struggle against Sabalenka’s relentless aggression).
She became the first woman since Azarenka (2012-2014) to win 18 consecutive matches at Melbourne Park. In fact, she has now won 24 consecutive sets of tennis here (you must go back to her 2023 Aussie Open comeback win against Rybakina to find a dropped set).
How has Sabalenka gone from a perennial ‘nearly’ woman to this? I think that the work she has done on her serve over the last 18 months has really been a huge factor in her sustained excellence.
She partnered with a biomechanics trainer to iron out the kinks in her serve, rapidly decreasing her double fault count in high-pressure situations.
Her forehand is arguably the most dangerous single weapon in world tennis (often eclipsing the power generated by her male counterparts). It’s going to take a herculean effort to surpass the Belarusian in this form.
27th-seeded Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has been one of this year’s surprise packages. The 2021 French Open runner-up has been a solid Grand Slam competitor on all surfaces, reaching the quarterfinals or better at all four slams.
Her 4th round win over Donna Vekic ensured her 4th trip to the Aussie Open quarterfinals (she is yet to progress to the final four). She was particularly brutal on serve against Vekic, blasting ten aces and winning 72% of her first-serve points.
Pavlyuchenkova has faced plenty of adversity in recent years, overcoming a series of debilitating injuries that forced her to miss four slams between 2022-2023.
She has apparently taken a much more laissez-faire approach to preparations this season, focusing on enjoying her time on the court.
Noted for her aggressive baseline-oriented game, Pavlyuchenkova can adapt her game to different situations. I wonder what she has in plan to combat the thuggish baseline power of Sabalenka.
Coco Gauff 26/100 | Paula Badosa 28/10
Coco Gauff appears unfazed by all her pre-tournament billing, extending her current unbeaten streak to eleven matches with a comeback win over Belinda Bencic.
Gauff struggled for consistency in the early portion of her match with Bencic, committing far too many unforced errors against the wily Swiss star.
But she found her rhythm after that initial setback, ultimately routing Bencic 6-2, 6-1 in the final two sets. Gauff has been in spectacular form since the end of last year, winning the WTA Finals and playing an integral role in the United States claiming this year’s United Cup.
The 2023 US Open champion knows what it takes to go deep in this event, going out to Sabalenka in last year’s semifinals. Gauff has won 77% of her first-serve points in this year’s event.
Having said that, she has coughed up the 2nd most double faults in the tournament. She will need to serve well against Paula Badosa (a renowned returner).
2023 WTA Tour Comeback Player of the Year Paula Badosa has made it through to her 2nd consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal, holding off a spirited performance from Serb surprise package Olga Danilovic.
Badosa has surprised me this fortnight: she failed to make an impact in the Aussie Open precursors (she was eliminated early in Brisbane and Adelaide). Badosa has looked impressive this fortnight, winning 72% of her first-serve points and dropping just one set (in a tricky 3rd round match against Marta Kostyuk).
She has served well throughout, and that double-handed backhand has been a thing of beauty (which makes sense when you realize she is a natural lefty).
Badosa enjoyed a wonderful latter portion of 2024, winning the Washington Open before a spirited quarterfinal run at the US Open. Badosa reached as high as No.2 in the world but is yet to progress beyond the quarterfinal stage of a slam.
The Verdict: Gauff to win in three 29/10
These two share the head-to-head spoils at three wins apiece. However, the Americans got the better of the Spaniards in both of their 2024 meetings. There is a window of opportunity for Badosa here.
She has returned brilliantly in this tournament and Gauff’s serve has been vulnerable on occasion.
Badosa also has the power to compete with her from the back of the court. However, Gauff should be able to prevail if the match goes to a decisive set.
She is in excellent condition but there’s always a question mark regarding Badosa’s fitness.
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight sets 1/3
Pavlyuchenkova surprisingly leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning their only previous hardcourt meeting at the 2019 Rogers Cup. But that was before we got Sabalenka 2.0.
I just don’t see any universe where the Russians can challenge Sabalenka. In fact, it might be worthwhile to take the under 18.5 games at 19/20 (just for some value).
