Ons Jabeur faces Shelby Rogers and Coco Gauff takes on Madison Keys in the third round of the 2022 US Open. Damien Kayat previews.
Ons Jabeur (5) (1/2) vs Shelby Rogers (31) (31/20)
28-year-old Tunisian has absolutely sailed through her opening two matches, curiously beating Brengle and Mandik with the exact same score-line of 7-5, 6-2. It has been a sensational campaign for the eccentric Tunisian shot-maker. She enjoyed an electrifying clay-court season, punctuated by her maiden Masters 1000 title in Madrid.
She then ripped through the grass-court season, powering her way to her maiden Grand Slam final at Wimbledon. But she hasn’t looked the same player since that heart-breaking defeat. She was 2-3 on hardcourts leading into this year’s US Open. She will actually be looking to get past the 3rd round here for the first time in her career.
Her array of slices and cheeky dropshots are not best suited to these quicker conditions. There’s a greater need for pure backcourt barbarity at Flushing Meadows. Jabeur’s best hardcourt results have come on slightly slower surfaces.
She reached the quarterfinals at last year’s Aussie Open and the semi-finals at Indian Wells (a notoriously slow hardcourt venue). Still, she has looked devastating this week and will be looking to take down her 3rd consecutive American in Shelby Rogers.
Shelby Rogers rivals Alize Cornet in her ability to collect massive scalps.
The 29-year-old American knocked Halep out of the 2017 Aussie Open before taking down Serena at the 2020 Top Seed Open. And she pulled out at massive upset on these very courts last year, taking down the seemingly unbeatable Ashleigh Barty in the 3rd round. And Rogers has enjoyed her most consistent season thus far, breaking into the world’s top 30 for the first time in her career.
She recently reached her first final in six years, knocking out the likes of Andreescu and Sakkari en route to the Silicon Valley Classic final. Rogers’ power-based gamed seems perfectly suited to the conditions in New York. She was a quarterfinalist here in 2020 and reached the final 16 last year.
She struggled in her opening match against Rus before a far more assured outing against Kuzmova. Rogers was one of my pre-tournament dark horses and this 3rd round match just has Rogers-upset written all over it.
Verdict: Rogers to win at 31/20- Jabeur does lead the head-to-head stakes 2-0. But to put that into context, their last meeting came at the 2019 Cincinnati Open.
I think that Rogers’ flatter groundstrokes could give her the edge on these faster surfaces. Jabeur has looked vulnerable this entire US Open Swing and Rogers is a past master of taking down top seeds.
Coco Gauff (12) (13/20) vs Madison Keys (20) (6/5)
Coco Gauff has become such a mainstay on the tour, it’s easy to forget that she’s still just 18 years of age. This has been a very busy year for Serena Williams’ heir apparent. She reached her maiden Grand Slam final at Roland Garros and reached no.1 in the world in doubles.
She has only reached one semi-final since the French Open and her US Open Swing has been patchy. But she showed her class in the Canadian Open, beating Aryna Sabalenka and Wimbledon champ Elena Rybakina in back-to-back matches.
She actually became the youngest back-to-back quarterfinalist in Canada since Jennifer Capriati. She has looked as ominous this week as she did during the early stages of her magnificent French Open run.
She is yet to drop a set and her groundstrokes are looking thunderous. With a number of major causalities already this week, Gauff has the opportunity to cement her reputation as a future World Number 1.
But Coco now has to contend with the Grand Slam behemoth that is Madison Keys. The 27-year-old American has always struggled with consistency (a consequence of her ultra-aggressive mode of play). But the former US Open finalist has always had the capacity for a deep Grand Slam run. This reputation was only further enhanced when she reached the semi-finals of this year’s Aussie Open.
In fact, this year has seen a real renaissance for Keys. She had dropped as low as 87 in the world rankings. But she won her 6th WTA title in Adelaide just prior to that brilliant run in Melbourne. And she recently showcased her class on North-American hardcourts, reaching the semi-finals of the Cincinnati Open after beating three former Grand Slam champions (Swiatek, Ostapenko and Rybakina).
She started this year’s US Open with a pretty regulation victory over Yastremska. But it wasn’t smooth sailing for her last time out. She needed to withstand a fierce onslaught from Giorgi, scrapping through in a 3rd set tiebreak.
Verdict: Gauff to win in three at 29/10- Keys won their only previous encounter in Adelaide this year. And if that match was anything to go by- we should be in for a cracking match. This is going to be a true baseline slugfest, with both players capable of monstrous serving and heavy groundstrokes. One area where Gauff has an advantage is consistency.
Keys has the tendency to overreach with her groundstrokes. Both players will hit their fair share of winners. But I think Gauff should have the distance advantage in the extended rallies.
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