Top seed Jessica Pegula will be making her first appearance since a shock first-round defeat to Cocciaretto at SW19.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 500
Mubadala Citi Open (Washington Open)
William H.G. Fitzgerald Tennis Centre, Washington D.C. (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 23rd July
Jessica Pegula (1) 0.32 vs Leylah Fernandez 2.35
Pegula looked primed for a sustained Wimbledon title push after beating Swiatek in straight sets in the Bad Homburg final. But she completely capitulated against Cocciatetto in one of the biggest upsets of the entire season. Pegula will look to turn her season around on her favoured North American hardcourts. The arch-baseliner enjoyed a sparkling 2024 North American hardcourt campaign, winning a 2nd Canadian Open title before picking up runner-up finishes in Cincinnati and New York (which was her maiden Grand Slam final appearance). In fact, nine of her 19 career finals have come on North American soil: she has already won titles in Austin and Charleston this year. She will have fond memories of this event, winning her maiden title here back in 2019.
World No.36 Leylah Ferandez will be looking to rain on Pegula’s North American hardcourt parade. The lefty looked extremely solid in her Washington opener, dispatching off fellow top 40 player Maya Joint 6-3, 6-3. She was particularly impressive on serve, firing five aces and winning 78% of her first-serve points. She also pressed home the advantage on return, winning 72% of her 2nd serve return points. The Canadian has struggled to recapture the form that saw her finish runner-up at the 2021 US Open (though she has been more consistent than champ Radacanu). She produced some solid hardcourt results towards the beginning of the campaign, reaching the 3rd round of the Aussie Open and the quarterfinals in Abu Dhabi. But she tanked during the clay-court swing and only briefly threatened on the grass (she did reach the Nottingham quarters). Fernandez’s victory over Joint improved her 2025 record against top 50 players to 5-10 (not especially impressive when you are coming up against an elite hardcourt competitor).
The Verdict: Pegula to win in straight sets at 0.79– Pegula leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning their most recent meeting in three sets at last year’s Cincinnati Open. This should be a procession. Pegula will be well rested following that Wimbledon debacle and will be looking to put an early marker down ahead of this year’s US Open. Pegula hits with relentless depth and should overwhelm Fernandez’s counterpunching style.
Emma Navarro (2) vs Maria Sakkari
This has been a bit of a strange season for Emma Navarro. Currently ranked 11th in the world, Navarro hasn’t been able to replicate the consistency that saw her win the WTA Most Improved Player of the Year last season. She comes into this event with a solid 24-17 record (although it is propped up by a victory at the decidedly understrength Merida Open). Outside of the Merida Open, she has failed to go beyond the quarterfinal in another event. She has reserved her best tennis for the Grand Slam arena, reaching the quarterfinals in Melbourne before her recent 4th round run at SW19. I think that Navarro is occasionally let down by her lack of brute power (though she does have the ability to inject violent little doses of power in her rallies). Navarro did enjoy a prosperous time during last year’s North American hardcourt swing, reaching the Canadian semis before a maiden Grand Slam semifinal appearance at the US Open.
A two-time Grand Slam semifinalist back in 2021, Maria Sakkari has fallen dramatically in recent seasons, suffering fluctuations with form and injury issues (she missed the 2nd half of last season due to a shoulder issue). She produced one of her most impressive performances in recent memory in her Washington opener, taking down Katie Boulter 6-3, 6-3 to get her tournament off to a positive start. The result improved her campaign to a humdrum 17-20 (her best result being a quarterfinal run in Linz). Perhaps the Boulter win could unlock a mini Sakkari revival. Lest we forget, Sakkari finished runner-up at Indian Wells last season. A four-time WTA 1000 hardcourt finalist, Sakkari has exactly the type of power-based game that defines the modern game. She has always suffered with consistency (due in part to mental fragility and overthinking). Still, she is a former Washington runner-up who understands these surfaces.
The Verdict: Sakkari to win in three sets at – Sakkari leads the head-to-head 2-1, winning both of their 2024 clashes. I think that Sakkari’s raw power could cause an upset here. Navarro has underwhelmed this year, crumbling against some of the true power hitters. Sakkari served brilliantly against Boulter, winning 81% of her first-serve points. That weapon could prove decisive here.
