19-year-old Czech Jakub Mensik is your prototypical modern baseliner. The Czech teenager possesses a booming serve and looks to dominate points early with his monstrous forehand.
2025 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Tennis Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London, England (Outdoor Grass-court)
Selected 3rd Round Matches- 5th July
Jakub Mensik (15) 0.58 vs Flavio Cobolli (22) 1.34
Mensik produced a breakout performance at this year’s Miami Open, winning his maiden Masters 1000 title after beating mentor Novak Djokovic in the final. The hard-hitting Czech produced some solid tennis during the clay-court swing but underwhelmed in his grass-court precursors. The Czech hasn’t had things all his own way this week, requiring four sets against both Hugo Gaston and Marcos Giron. Mensik has relied heavily on that sledgehammer serve, notching up 46 aces in just two matches. However, he only won 41% of his 2nd serve points against Giron. He is going to need to pump up those stats if he wants to become a realistic contender. Mensik has very little grass-court pedigree to speak of and is growing with every appearance.
23-year-old Italian Flavio Cobolli dampened homegrown hopes in his 2nd round clash with Jack Pinnington Jones, easing past the Brit 6-1, 7-6, 6-2. The Italian dominated from the baseline, striking 38 winners to 31 unforced errors to make his 2nd successive Grand Slam 3rd round appearance (he went down to Zverev in Paris). The aggressive baseliner has enjoyed an excellent campaign, winning titles in Bucharest and Hamburg (where he beat Andrey Rublev in the final). The flat-hitting Cobolli showed some solid grass-court promise a few weeks back, going down to Alex Zverev in the Halle quarterfinals. Cobolli needs to work on making his serve more of a weapon (especially on these quicker surfaces). But he has plenty of power off both wings and will go into this match with nothing to lose.
The Verdict: Mensik to win in straight sets at 2.6- This will be their first career meeting. Mensik hasn’t been at his best this week but his formidable first serve should give him a mammoth advantage against the Italian. Both of these guys tend to hug the baseline and there may be little to choose between them in extended exchanges. The player who collects more cheap points will enjoy a huge advantage here. Mensik should prevail if he can keep that first-serve percentage up.
Brandon Nakashima (29) vs Lorenzo Sonego
23-year-old American Brandon Nakashima was excellent in his 2nd round clash with compatriot Reily Opelka, diffusing his countryman’s big serve to win 7-5, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3. Nakashima was quietly authoritative on his own serve, picking up 12 aces and winning 83% of his first-serve points. Nakashima is enjoying the best season of his career, breaking into the top 30 for the first time earlier this year. He has reached the quarterfinal stage or better in five events. In fact, he has been one of the more impressive under-the-radar grass-court performers, reaching back-to-back quarterfinals in Stuttgart and Queen’s. Nakashima is a no-nonsense baseliner with excellent footwork and on-court strategy. His serve is vastly improved and he appears to be becoming more aggressive with each new tournament. Nakashima has now reached the 3rd round here in three of the last four seasons (he reached the 4th round back in 2022).
30-year-old Italian Lorenzo Sonego has been a frustrating underachiever throughout his career. He has all the ability in the world but has only managed to win four minor titles (the last of which coming at last year’s Winston Salem Open). Sonego has just been lost in the wave of upcoming new Italian talent (Sinner, Musetti, Cobolli). This year has been a true distillation of his entire career (flattering to deceive). He looked absolutely incredible during the Aussie Open, reaching a maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal courtesy of some of the most entertaining all-court tennis you are likely to see. He has plateaued since then, reaching just one quarterfinal in the rest of the season. I struggle to reconcile that. Sonego tapped into some of that potential in his 2nd round win over Georgian Nikoloz Basilashvili, hitting 30 winners to just 17 unforced errors in another scintillating display of all-court tennis. Sonego has shown an aptitude for grass-court tennis in the past, winning in Antayla in 2019 before finishing runner-up at the 2021 Eastbourne International. Sonego reached the Wimbledon 4th round in 2021 and will look to emulate that run with victory over the consistent Nakashima.
The Verdict: Nakashima to win in four at- Sonego leads the head-to-head 1-0, winning in Hong Kong earlier this season. Who will prevail in this clash between the industrious Nakashima and the maverick Sonego? My romantic sensibilities are making me lean towards the swashbuckling Sonego. However, Nakashima has been far more consistent of late, coming into this tournament after reaching back-to-back grass-court quarterfinals. Nakashima is playing high percentage tennis and should force the Italian into a litany of mistakes.
