Damien Kayat previews Jessica Pegula vs Danielle Collins and Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova in the Selected Round of 32 Matches of the Miami Open, on 25 March 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Miami Open
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, USA (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 25th March
Jessica Pegula 32/100 | Danielle Collins 21/10
World No.3 Jessica Pegula has become one of the most consistent players at WTA 1000 level, reaching five WTA 1000 semi-finals over the past two years. She reached her first final in Madrid last year before claiming her maiden WTA 1000 title in Guadalajara.
She crucially reached the semi-finals on these courts last season. The American late bloomer may not possess the physical attributes of Swiatek or Sabalenka. But her timing is immaculate, and her tenacity is undeniable. 2023 has been a typically metronomic year for the American (her year-to-date win-loss record stands at 15-5).
She began the year in ominous style, beating World No.1 Iga Swiatek in straights sets at the United Cup. After yet another Grand Slam quarterfinal run in Melbourne, Swiatek would exact revenge on Pegula in the Qatar final. She was knocked out at the round of 16 stage of Indian Wells, succumbing to Petra Kvitova in an epic three-set encounter.
She blew Sebov off the courts in her opening match and comes into this match as a worthy favourite.
Fellow American Danielle Collins was also something of a late bloomer. Her decision to star in collegiate tennis put her professional career on the backburner for a few years. And she carried through some of those college traits- exaggerated grunting and excessive celebrations- into her professional career.
She never burst out the gate when entering the professional arena (though a semi-final run at the 2019 Aussie Open was a harbinger of things to come). Her true breakthrough year came in 2021.
She came through an uncomfortable bout with endometriosis and won her maiden WTA title in Palermo. The following month she won her maiden WTA 500 title at the Silicon Valley Classic. This all built up to her magnificent Aussie Open final run last year.
But things have gone slightly awry for the hard-hitting Collins over the past 18 months or so. She is 8-8 for the year, losing to the virtually unknown Dalma Galfi at Indian Wells. Still, the dangerous Collins always has a fighter’s chance. It’s just a matter of whether she can keep that unforced errors count in check.
Verdict: Pegula to win in straight sets 87/100
Pegula owns a 3-0 head-to-head lead over Billie Jean King Cup teammate Danielle Collins. Their last meeting was a tight three-set affair at the 2021 Montreal Masters. These two baseliners are polar opposites on the tennis court.
Pegula exudes a cool demeanour, preferring to opt for precision over unadulterated power. Collins is brash and tries to hit virtually every 2nd ball as hard as she can. These courts should suit returning semi-finalist Pegula to a tee. I can’t look beyond the straight sets Pegula win.
Coco Gauff 1/3 | Anastasia Potapova 2/1
19-year-old Cori Gauff- who resides in Southeast Florida- is coming off a pretty decent quarterfinal run at Indian Wells. Her opening round victory over Marino took her tally of WTA 1000 victories to 34.
She now has more WTA 1000 victories than any other player before the age of 20. Gauff started the year in emphatic fashion, demolishing everyone to win her 3rd WTA title in Auckland. She has been the model of consistency since (with a win-loss record of 10-4 following that Auckland win).
But she will feel slightly frustrated that she hasn’t been able to turn good weeks into great weeks. She was soundly beaten by nemesis Iga Swiatek in the Dubai semi-final before being thrashed by Aryna Sabalenka at Indian Wells. I still feel like she plays slightly too passively for someone of her ability.
A former Roland Garros finalist, I think Gauff should thrive on these relatively surfaces. She made her WTA Tour main draw debut in this very event, and she will no doubt receive gargantuan support this week.
Anastasia Potapova is fresh off a controversial appearance at the Indian Wells Masters. She was given a formal warning from the WTA after wearing a Spartak Moscow jersey prior to her clash against Pegula.
The 21-year-old Russian has actually developed into a formidable competitor on the tour. She ended 2022 with a win-loss record of 35-24 and she has looked even better in 2023. She beat Sloane Stephens in the first round of the Aussie Open but her season really kicked into gear with a quarterfinal run at the Lyon Open.
She followed that up with the biggest success of her career, winning her 2nd WTA title at the Linz Open. She pushed Pegula to three sets in a gruelling encounter at Indian Wells. She just thrashed Marta Kostyuk and will offer a stern early challenge for Gauff.
Verdict: Gauff to win in three 5/2
Gauff leads the head-to-head 2-0. There are a few caveats to that head-to-head record. Gauff barely scraped through against Potpova in an epic three-setter at the 2019 US Open. And the Russian was forced to retire through injury at the 2021 Rogers Cup.
I think this could be a tighter match than people anticipate. Potapova is strong from the baseline and will feel hugely motivated after that WTA warning. Gauff has been known to cave under intense pressure and may find the fanatical home support distracting. Still, I think she will hold her nerve to take this in three.
