Damien Kayat previews Elena Rybakina vs Martina Trevisan and Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Potapova in the Quarterfinals of the WTA Tour – Miami Masters, on 28 and 29 March 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Miami Masters
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, USA (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals – 28th, 29th March
March 28
Elena Rybakina 1/20 | Martina Trevisan 13/2
Over the past nine months, Kazakh 10th seed Elena Rybakina has positioned herself as one of the elite players in the women’s game. She won her maiden Grand Slam title at last year’s Wimbledon Championships.
She proved that wasn’t a fluke by reaching the Aussie Open championship match (going down to Sabalenka in the final). She is fresh off her first WTA 1000 title at Indian Wells and the much vaunted ‘Sunshine Double’ is starting to look a distinct possibility for Rybakina.
And to think it almost ended against Paula Badosa. She sat on the precipice of defeat, facing a match-point in the 2nd set. But she hit a brilliant crosscourt winner that seemed to snap everything into gear.
She suddenly had the baseline dominance over the implacable Badosa and rode that wave to victory. Her comprehensive round of 16 win over Elise Mertens took her current winning streak to 11 matches. Rybakina isn’t just a one-trick pony with a massive serve.
She is hitting clean winners on both sides and has shown the capacity to hang in when things aren’t quite connecting. She is going to take some stopping this week.
In contrast to her opponent, 29-year-old Italian Martina Trevisan arrived at this year’s Miami Open on the opposite end of the form spectrum. Trevisan lost her first five matches of the season (all in straight sets).
She picked up a morale boosting victory over Brengle at Indian Wells before succumbing to Muchova in the Round of 32. But the diminutive Italian has really found something on these Miami surfaces.
Wins over Hibino and Liu were followed by an excellent straight sets demolition of former Miami Open finalist Jelena Ostapenko. This upturn in form perhaps shouldn’t be too surprising.
Trevisan is an avowed clay-court specialist- she reached the semi-final at last year’s French Open. She probably feels fairly adept at playing on these slower surfaces.
She simply frustrated the impatient Ostapenko by keeping the ball in play, waiting for the Latvian to make errors. That strategy is simply not going to work against Rybakina.
Verdict: Rybakina to win in straight sets 3/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Yeah, I think this one isn’t going to last too long. Rybakina has the power to penetrate these courts and Trevisan’s brand of dogged baseline tennis won’t be enough to halt that.
March 29
Jessica Pegula 7/20 | Anastasia Potapova 19/10
Jessica Pegula has developed a healthy of habit of going deep in WTA 1000 events. The American billionaire heiress has reached 12 WTA 1000 quarterfinals in the last three-plus years (more than any other player).
She reached the final in Madrid last year before capturing her maiden title at Guadalajara Open. She will be aiming to reach her 6th semi-final in two years and her 2nd consecutive final-four showing at the Hard Rock Stadium. Pegula has been the model of consistency this season (this is her 4th consecutive quarterfinal).
She continued her recent Grand Slam consistency with a quarterfinal run at the Aussie Open before being pulverized by Swiatek in the Qatar final. Still, the determined American has soldiered on and now possesses a win-loss record of 18-5 for the year (only Sabalenka has won more matches than her).
Pegula was left frustrated with several slow starts at Indian Wells. She has looked far more at ease in Miami and is yet to drop a set. She won the first-set against Magda Linette in just 28 minutes. She then had to claw her way back for a 5-2 deficit in the 2nd set (highlighting her never-say-die spirit).
Next up for the American is a woman who very nearly upset her at Indian Wells: Anastasia Potapova. The Russian generated some controversy prior to that match against Pegula, receiving a formal WTA warning for donning a Spartak Moscow top (slightly ridiculous if you ask me).
The American seems to be feeding off the negative publicity and has let her tennis do the talking. She eased past Kostyuk in her first match before taking down the darling of American tennis: Coco Gauff. She was trailing the American Grand Slam finalist by a set and 5-3 in the 2nd.
But she decided to throw caution to the wind, unleashing a tidal wave of winners with a ferocious display of all-out aggression. She then cannily changed her tact against Zheng, allowing the Chinese to dictate the match while she counterpunched efficiently.
Potapova won the Linz title earlier this year and has become a really dangerous dark horse. This will only be her 2nd WTA 1000 quarterfinal and she will be desperate to take down another American scalp.
Verdict: Potapova to win in three 21/5
Pegula holds a flawless 3-0 lead in the head-to-head rivalry with Potapova. But that raw statistic certainly doesn’t tell the full story. Their 2021 Qatar Open meeting turned into an absolute thriller, with the American prevailing in a tight 3rd set tiebreak. And the Russian once again pushed the American to three sets in the recent Indian Wells Masters.
I think there’s value in backing the Russian. She seems to have constructively harnessed her emotions following g that WTA warning. She has shown she has the baseline game to for toe-to-toe with Pegula. I think it may be worth your while to back Potapova in a tight three-set upset win.
