Damien Kayat previews Iga Swiatek taking on Karolina Muchova in the Women’s final of the French Open, on the 10th of June 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
French Open
Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France (Outdoor Clay)
Women’s Final – 10th June
Still yet to drop a set this year, two-time French Open champion Swiatek just survived her some spirted 2nd set defiance from Beatriz Haddad Maia. She even had to save a set-point against the plucky Brazilian.
But you always felt that she could step it up a gear if she needed to in a hypothetical 3rd. The 22-year-old Pole became the youngest woman to reach three French Open finals since Monica Seles.
She is also bidding to become the first woman to win back-to-back French Open titles since Justine Henin. And it is hard to look past her on these surfaces. Victory over Haddad Maia took her overall Roland Garros record to a staggering 27-2.
People actually looked at Swiatek with a good deal of skepticism coming into this year’s French Open. The likes of Sabalenka and Rybakina seemed to have gained a psychological edge on her.
She just never dominated the opening salvos of this year like she did in 2022. But I always felt she would find her best form in Paris. She loves the slow, windy conditions and uses her unparalleled athleticism to chase down anything.
She also has tremendous variety, deploying heavy topspin in one breath before flattening out her groundstrokes in the next.
IGA SWIATEK IS INEVITABLE 🤖
— Eurosport (@eurosport) June 8, 2023
SHE REACHES HER THIRD FRENCH OPEN FINAL 🏆#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/OkcZOYdxCA
To Win
Iga Swiatek 2/17 | Karolina Muchova 5/1
Last year, Karolina Muchova left Roland Garros in tears.
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) June 8, 2023
There was more behind those tears than just physical pain.
Those were the tears of a woman who just wanted to be healthy.
But today, this is the face of a woman who overcame it all.
🥹❤️
pic.twitter.com/Pl7rMleIoV
What a fortnight this has been for World No.43 Karolina Muchova. The Czech has survived a formidable draw to reach her maiden Grand Slam final. She beat Maria Sakkari in her opening match before a quarterfinal triumph over 2021 French Open runner-up Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
Her exceptional semi-final victory over Aryna Sabalenka took her record against top 3 opponents to 5-0 (which will give her some encouragement going into this match). The 26th year-old became the 5th Czech in the Open Era to reach the Roland Garros final.
Muchova has always been one of those players who never maximized her potential (the only title she has won came at the 2019 Korea Open). But she has shown glimmers of her best tennis at Grand Slam level.
She reached the semi-final of the 2021 Aussie Open and has two Wimbledon quarterfinals to her name. But let’s just focus for a second on that semi-final victory.
She ended the Belarusian’s impressive 12-match Grand Slam winning streak in some style. Honestly, that semi-final was the match of the tournament for me (men or women).
To come back from 5-2 down (and a match-point down) in the 3rd set took a huge amount of courage from Muchova. She had to call on all her court-craft and resilience to counteract the fearsome hitting barrage of Sabalenka.
I love the way Muchova disguised her drop-shots, exposing Sabalenka’s occasional baseline rigidity. She also gave a masterclass of volleying that will stand her in good stead against the indomitable Swiatek. She is going to need another flawless display to take down clay-court demigoddess Iga Swiatek.
Verdict: Swiatek to win in three at 23/10
Muchova actually leads the head-to-head 1-0, beating the Pole in three sets at the 2019 Prague Open. But this is an entirely different proposition.
Muchova isn’t going to get the same purchase out of her drop-shots against Energizer Bunny Swiatek. She will need to be brave and come to the net often against the Pole.
Swiatek has better accuracy than Sabalenka with her passing shots and I think Muchova will struggle to dominate at the net. I think this is why Swiatek should triumph and claim her 4th Grand Slam title.
But I think the best value will come in backing a three-set Swiatek win. Listen, she could blow the Czech out of the water. But Muchova showed enough grit in that semi-final to make a three-set Swiatek win quite appealing at 33/10.
