Damien Kayat previews Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Karolina Muchova in the quarter-finals of the French Open, on the 6th of June 2023
2023 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
French Open
Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Quarter-finals – 6th June
Aryna Sabalenka 21/100 | Elina Svitolina 10/3
Reigning Aussie Open champ Aryna Sabalenka has endured a pretty grueling fortnight, eschewing regular press conferences due to her alleged stance on the ongoing Ukrainian war. But she hasn’t let any of that filter into her on-court performances.
The Belarusian is yet to drop a set in Paris and looks primed for another deep Grand Slam run. Sabalenka must be the most improved player in the world on this surface. She had never gone beyond the 3rd round here in five appearance here. But her composed 4th round win over Sloane Stephens was a powerful demonstration of how far she has come.
She won an impressive 77% of her first-serve points in the match (amassing an imposing 24 winners in the process). That victory took her 2023 record to 33-5 (and 13-2 on clay). Sabalenka has reached five clay-court finals since the start 2021. She recently won her 2nd Madrid Open title and will feel immensely confident after breaking her Grand Slam hoodoo in Melbourne.
I knew there must must have been some reason why I hadn’t written about Elina Svitolina in some time. The 28-year-old Ukranian only recently retured to action following maternity leave. I think you could be forgiven for not noticing her return to the circuit.
She lost her first three tour-level games since returning to this year’s European clay-court swing. But the accomplished clay-court player clicked into gear in Strasbourg, winning her first title since returning to action. That was the 6th tour-level clay-court title of her career. The two-time Italian Open champ just registered her 8th consecutive win against Daria Kasatkina.
This will be the 4th time that Svitolina has reached the quarterfinal stage of this event and she will desperate to finally reach a maiden French Open semi-final. She has been causing her own political furore of late, refusing to acknowledge Blinkova and Kasatkina due to the ongoing Ukranian conflict. This quarterfinal couldn’t be more deliciously poised.
Verdict: Sabalenka to win at 21/100
I was slightly surprised to learn that this will be just the 3rd meeting between these two. I think a lot of people are getting sucked into the narrative of this one, hoping that Svitolina will prevail in defiance against the tyranny of Russian oppression and all that jazz.
But just look at Sabalenka’s recent form. She has improved her clay-court mobility and seems to have ironed out those pesky service kinks. Svitolina has had to come from behind twice this fortnight and Sabalenka should be a step too far for her.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 7/5 | Karolina Muchova 4/7
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova’s French Open run has been the stuff of fairytale. The Russian rose to prominence with a run to the French Open final in 2021. And she was forced to withdraw on the eve of last year’s event due to a knee injury. That injury led to surgery and she was forced to miss the rest of the year.
And she has struggled since returning to action. She won her first tour-level match of the year in Madrid. And then she was unceremoniously double-bagled by Iga Swiatek in Rome. But she just seems to have an affinity for these surfaces. Her 4th round comeback win over Elise Mertens was her 3rd consecutive win against a seeded player this year.
Pavlyuchenkova has shown amazing resolve, battling back from 5-2 down in the final set against Samsonova. Her grit and resilience make her a dangerous opponent for anyone.
26-year-old Czech Karolina Muchova has been one of this year’s surprise packages. But should it be that much of a surprise? The Czech had a couple of promising performances in the lead-in to this year’s event. She reached the quarterfinals at Indian Wells before a round of 16 run in Rome.
And she has typically reserved her best tennis for the Grand Slam stage. She reached the semi-finals of the 2021 Aussie Open and this will be her 3rd quarterfinal showing at Roland Garros. Not bad for a player who hasn’t reached a WTA final since 2019. She is a perennial underachiever who has the variety to win big titles.
Her range of slices and drop-shots have served her brilliantly in these slow conditions. She has only dropped one set thus far and she will feel confident ahead of this quarterfinal clash.
Verdict: Pavlyuchenkova to win in three at 7/2
This will be the 4th career meeting between these two. Pavlyuchenkova leads the head-to-head 2-1. Crucially, she won their only clay-court encounter at the 2021 Madrid Open. I think this one is going to be a real tug of war.
Muchova is slightly less one-dimensional and will be able to use her variety to upset Pavlyuchenkova’s rhythm. But I just think that Pavlyuchenkova’s relentless baseline power will see over the line.
