Damien Kayat previews Jessica Pegula vs Anna Blinkova and Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in selected round of 32 matches of the China Open on the 3rd of October 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
China Open
National Tennis Centre, Beijing, China (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 3rd October
Jessica Pegula 1/14 | Anna Blinkova 11/2
This has been another extremely impressive season for Jessica Pegula. The billionaire heiress from Buffalo won her 2nd WTA 1000 title in Montreal and is fresh off another deep run at the Toray Pacific Open (she lost in the final to Veronika Kudermetova).
But I still think Pegula will look back at this season with a sense of frustration. She is yet to break her Grand Slam quarterfinal duck and she has started to develop a reputation for choking on the biggest stages.
Still, she has been nothing short of a WTA 1000 juggernaut over the past few years, reaching the quarterfinal stage or better in nine of her last 13 WTA 1000 events. An arch-competitor, Pegula’s relentless ball-striking has made her an extremely tough nut to crack in these high-intensity events.
Her excellent doubles experience also gives her an added dimension at the net. She just came through a first-round bye and this will be her opening match this week.
Anna Blinkova enters this year’s China Open after being eliminated in the 2nd round of the Ningbo Open. I don’t think the end of the season can come soon enough for the 25-year-old Russian.
She started the season in very encouraging fashion, reaching the semi-finals in Hobart before making her 2nd WTA Final appearance in Strasbourg. But her season has been all downhill since a respectable 3rd round run at Wimbledon.
She came into this event with a 2-6 record since that Wimbledon showing. That run included pretty embarrassing defeats to the likes Clervie Ngounoue and Jodie Burrage. So, I think it’s fair to say that very few people gave her much hope in her opening round clash with hard-hitting Croat Donna Vekic.
But Blinkova produced arguably her best performance of the year, serving nine aces to overcome Vekic in straight-sets. Can she harness any momentum from that shock win when she faces Pegula?
Verdict: Pegula to win in straight-sets
Pegula leads Blinkova 1-0 in their head-to-head meetings, thrashing the Russian in Charleston earlier this season. I wish I could offer something a bit more tantalizing here. But Pegula’s court coverage makes her an entirely different proposition to Vekic. She returns brilliantly and is unlikely to concede nine aces. Her work-rate is going to be difficult for Blinkova to overcome.
Mirra Andreeva 8/15 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 13/10
This looks set to be fascinating cross-generational clash. 16-year-old wunderkind Mirra Andreeva has the tennis world at her feet. Currently ranked 62 in the world, the Russian baseliner created a bit of history at this year’s Madrid Open, becoming the 3rd youngest woman in history to win a WTA 1000 match.
She produced some remarkable tennis at Wimbledon, echoing Coco Gauff with a brilliant 4th round run. It was Coco Gauff who ultimately saw off the Russian teen in the 2nd round of the US Open. Andreeva has been a little inconsistent in the latter portion of the season (though that’s to be expected from a teenager).
But she came through qualifying here without dropping a set and produced a seismic shock to upset recent San Diego champ Barbora Krejcikova in the first round. The win marked her 1st top 20 victory on hardcourts and made her the youngest ever match winner at the China Open. She struck 23 winners to Krejcikova’s 11 in a bruising display of baseline superiority.
Next up for Andreeva is a compatriot who happens to be twice her age: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. 32-year-old Pavlyuchenkova received a first-round bye courtesy of her excellent semi-final in Tokyo.
The Russian has competed in fits and starts this season after a long injury layoff threatened to prematurely end her career. But the 2021 French Open finalist showed her undoubted class with a brilliant quarterfinal run in Paris.
And she showed off her undeniable hardcourt acumen with an excellent semi-final run at last week’s Toray Pacific Open. She lost to eventual champion Veronika Kudermetova in a gruelling three-set semi-final.
She hasn’t reached a hardcourt final since 2019 and she will be desperate to build on the form she unearthed in Tokyo.
Verdict: Pavlyuchenkova to win in three sets
This will be the first career meeting between these two. I think it’s easy to get sucked into Andreeva narrative following that Krejcikova upset win. But the Czech is known for her volatile form and I don’t think Andreeva’s win was all that unexpected.
Pavlyuchenkova looked back her to resilient best in Tokyo and I think her aggressive style will prove tricky for Andreeva. The teenager won’t be able to dictate the tempo of this match like she did in the Krecikova clash.
