The Women's draw at the 2023 US Open remains Iga Swiatek's to lose. She's red-hot at the moment but will face stiff competition from the likes of Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka. Damien Kayat previews.
2022/2023 WTA Tour
Women’s US Open Championships
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre
28 August – 10 September
Iga Swiatek still reigns supreme as the number one player in world tennis. But her once vice-like grip appears far more tenuous as rivals continue to emerge from the chasing pack.
Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have probably been her most consistent threats in Grand Slam competition- hence their emergence as a so-called ‘Big Three’. But Marketa Vondrousova’s Wimbledon victory threw a spanner in the works while Gauff and Pegula have dominated the North American hardcourt swing.
All of this is bubbling together to make this one of the most exciting events in recent memory. Swiatek may have to produce her greatest performance yet to retain her title. But the Pole is attuned to the vagaries of Grand Slam tennis and she won’t be overawed by anything.
As I noted earlier, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula have given the boisterous home support some real hope on the eve of the year’s final Slam. Both will have to overcome Grand Slam mental blocks if they wish to send the denizens of New York into rapture.
I think at this point it’s important to point out that this is often the most unpredictable of all four Slams. The hysteria of the venue is a leveller while the effects of the calendar year also can bring surprises. Bianca Andreescu’s victory in 2019 was a great example of this.
But nothing can match 2021 in terms of flipping the script. The unheralded pair of Emma Radacanu and Leylah Fernandez duked it out in what was supposed to be portent of things to come. Both players have since vanished into the doldrums of the women’s game, highlighting the sheer unpredictability of this event.
Past Champions
- 2022: Iga Swiatek bt Ons Jabeur (6-2, 7-6)
- 2021: Emma Radacanu by Leylah Fernandez (6-4. 6-3)
- 2020: Naomi Osaka bt Victoria Azarenka (1-6, 6-3, 6-3)
- 2019: Bianca Andreescu bt Serena Williams (6-3, 7-5)
- 2018: Naomi Osaka bt Serena Williams (6-2, 6-4)
- 2017: Sloane Stephens by Madison Keys (6-3, 6-0)
North American Hardcourt Swing Results
- Washington Open: Coco Gauff bt Maria Sakkari (6-2, 6-3)
- Canadian Open: Jessica Pegula bt Liudmila Samsonova (6-1, 6-0)
- Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff bt Karolina Muchova (6-3, 6-4)
The Big Three- Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina
It’s very difficult to see a winner coming from outside this elite Eastern European Trio. Let’s take a look a more detailed look at their chances below.
Iga Swiatek – 9/4
Iga Swiatek has looked in decent nick during this North American Hardcourt Swing, reaching back-to-back semi-finals in Montreal and Cincinnati. The issue is that people tend to judge her against the form that saw her win 37 consecutive matches last year.
The Pole has still won four titles this year (including a fourth Major title at Roland Garros). She tends to play well on these surfaces as they are probably a touch slower than most of the regular-tour hardcourt events.
I actually think she has a decent chance of retaining the title after those successive WTA 1000 semi-finals. She looks sharp and will gain more cutting edge with the Grand Slam at stake.
Aryana Sabalenka – 9/2
Aryna Sabalenka has gone slightly quiet since she absolutely dominated the early portion of the season. The reigning Aussie Open champion has threatened to turn this into a seismic year, reaching the semi-finals of the French Open and Wimbledon Championships.
She will be harbouring dreams of chasing down Swiatek and claiming that number-one ranking for herself. She also loves these courts, reaching the semi-finals here in the last two seasons.
The Belarusian just needs to calm her nerves when she gets into the latter stages of these Slams. Some of her serving demons crept back in during those recent semi-final defeats and it will be interesting to see how she deals with the acute New York pressure.
Elena Rybakina – 7/1
Elena Rybakina has quickly become a real force to be reckoned with. I would argue that she could be the most feared player on the WTA Tour. She doesn’t stand on ceremony for anyone and she remains ice-cool in high-pressure situations.
She obviously won her maiden Grand Slam at Wimbledon last year. But I would argue that this year has been her breakthrough season. She showed her Grand Slam prowess once again with a run to the Aussie Open final.
She came within a whisker of winning the ‘Sunshine Double’ (losing to Kvitova in the Miami Open final). She won a maiden WTA 1000 clay-court event in Rome and she had a decent quarterfinal run at this year’s Wimbledon Championships.
She was the victim of crazy scheduling during her recent semi-final run in Montreal and this likely affected her preparations for Cincinnati. But I think Rybakina is going to be in tip-top shape and could be my personal pick from the so-called ‘Big Three’. She has a powerhouse serve that can accumulate plenty of free points.
Other Top 10 Contenders – Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova
While the consistent Jessica Pegula is currently ranked thirrd in the world, I still think she lacks something when it comes to this stage. She is a six-time losing Grand Slam quarterfinalist and I would swerve her (despite her Montreal victory).
Ons Jabeur has reached the final in three of her last five Slams. But I do think that the psychological impact of that Wimbledon defeat to Vondrousova might be hard to overcome.
Both Caroline Garcia and Maria Sakkari have been far too erratic to confidently back. I was a bit torn on Vondrousova. She is now a two-time Grand Slam finalist and she just lost to Swiatek in the Cincinnati Masters. I just feel like it’s a bit much to expect the injury-prone Czech to compete so soon after claiming her first Slam.
Coco Gauff
Eight of the last 15 Grand Slam women’s singles titles were won by first-time champions. And both of the following players fall neatly into that category. Doesn’t it feel like Coco Gauff is finally coming of age?
The 19-year-old rose to prominence when she beat Venus Williams in the first round of Wimbledon back in 2019. And she has risen steadily since then, progressing to her first Grand Slam final in Paris last year. But she was thrashed by Swiatek in the final and she started to develop a reputation for lacking BMT.
But she has revamped her coaching staff this year, axing Diego Moyano and taking on famed coach Brad Gilbert in an advisory capacity. And it reaped immediate benefits as she went on to win the Citi Open.
She then reached the quarters in Montreal before claiming her maiden WTA 1000 title in Cincinnati (crucially beating Swiatek in the semi-final). She seems to have discovered some real self-confidence and is finally starting to dominate matches.
Karolina Muchova – 20/1
27-year-old Karolina Muchova has overcome a series of debilitating injury issues and has been one of the form players in 2023. Her aggressive, all-court game came to the fore as she reached her maiden Grand Slam final at Roland Garros.
She impressively diffused Sabalenka’s power-based game in the semi-final before succumbing to Swiatek in a tight three-set final. She just reached her maiden WTA 1000 final in Cincinnati (going down to Coco Gauff in the final).
That run in Cincinnati improved her year-to-date hardcourt record to 15-6. She reached the 4th round here in 2020 and I think she looks physically prepared to go deep this year.
Mid-Tier Choices – Liudmila Samsonova and Madison Keys
Next up, we’ll take a look at some middle-of-the-pack choices who could rock the US Open boat.
Liudmila Samsonova – 33/1
24-year-old Russian Liudmila Samsonova has fast developed into one of the most consistent- and underrated- hardcourt players in women’s tennis. The powerful Russian came to our attention during a breakthrough 2022, going on an incredible hardcourt run that saw her win titles in Washington, Cleveland and Japan.
She lost a final in Abu Dhabi earlier this year but it was her recent performance at WTA 1000 level that really turned my head. She got to the final in Montreal, beating both Sabalenka and Rybakina along the way. Those two victories give me reason to believe that she could improve upon her fourth-round showing from last year.
Madison Keys – 50/1
My next choice- Madison Keys- is based less on form and more on expertise. The 28-year-old American has always reserved her best tennis for Grand Slam level. She has reached nine Grand Slam quarterfinals in her career, progressing to five semi-finals and one final.
That final came on these very courts in 2017, where she ultimately went down to Sloane Stephens in a decidedly one-sided affair. She won her 7th career title at Eastbourne earlier this year and she is fresh off another quarterfinal run at Wimbledon.
Keys is just a grizzled Grand Slam veteran who can never be underestimated. She just needs her serve and forehand to cooperate and she has a chance of making another deep run.
Longshot Options – Elina Svitolina and Sloane Stephens
Last up I’ll take a look at two battlers at the wrong end of the betting boards who I reckon could go on a decent US Open run this year.
Elina Svitolina
28-year-old Ukrainian Elina Svitolina returns to the seeds this week following a triumphant return from maternity leave. She won her 17th WTA title in Strasbourg and went on to reach the quarterfinals at Roland Garros.
She then produced an even more devastating display at Wimbledon, beating both Azarenka and Swiatek en route to a semi-final berth. She has been relatively quiet on the North American hardcourts but I expect her to once again show her Grand Slam mettle.
She reached the semi-finals here back in 2019 and she seems to have adopted a far more aggressive approach since returning to tour.
Sloane Stephens
2017 US Open champion Sloane Stephens has had an up-and-down career to say the least. But she has rediscovered some consistency this year and she could be a nice dark horse pick.
She reached the fourth round of this year’s French Open and is fresh off back-to-back round of 16 runs in Montreal and Cincinnati. She seems to be enjoying her time on court and at the time of writing, she was on the brink of reaching the quarterfinals of the Tennis in the Land event. She could be one for the top seeds to avoid early doors.
