Damien Kayat previews the 2023 Women’s Australian Open Semi-final matches as Elena Rybakina takes on Victoria Azarenka and Aryna Sabalenka faces Magda Linette.
2023 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Semi-finals
26 January
Elena Rybakina (46/100) | Victoria Azarenka (17/10)
What more can I say about Elena Rybakina? Relegated to sideshow status in the opening stages of the tournament, the reigning Wimbledon champion has had to fight for respect in Melbourne.
Perhaps that had something to do with her drastic dip in form post-Wimbledon. Regardless, I think it’s fair to say that the Kazakh star has now got the world’s attention. She has put on a serving masterclass in Melbourne. Her total of 29 tournament aces puts her well out in front of her fellow competitors.
She actually launched down 11 aces in her quarterfinal demolition over the similarly aggressive Jelena Ostapenko. Her serve and flat hitting has just proven to be the ideal fit for these surfaces. I think one thing that has struck me is her calmness on court. Her demeanor hasn’t really altered as the tournament has progressed.
33-year-old Belarusian Victoria Azarenka has proven her naysayers wrong with performances that harken back to her time as World No.1. The two-time Aussie Open champ has battled custody issues and injury woes over the years.
But she also lost the ability to win. She has only won a single WTA singles title since claiming the Sunshine Double in 2016 (the 2020 Cincinnati Open). That’s incredible. Her run to the 2020 US Open final was a little glimpse of Azarenka at her resplendent best.
But she has failed to build on that over the last two years. She says that she has conquered her issues with anxiety and is more at peace on court. She hasn’t had it all her own way this week (she had to come from a set down in her 3rd and 4th round matches).
But she put on a masterclass against the heavily favoured Jessica Pegula in their quarterfinal clash. She took the ball early and completely suffocated Pegula. She may find returning slightly more difficult against the explosive power of Rybakina.
Verdict: Rybakina to win in straight sets at 23/20
Rybakina leads 1-0 in their head-to-head rivalry. She took down the Belarusian in routine fashion at last year’s Indian Wells Masters. This is a really interesting one.
Azarenka clearly loves these courts and seems to be getting stronger as the tournament progresses. But I think Rybakina’s serve makes this match an entirely different proposition. Azarenka won’t be able to step inside the baseline with the same authority.
Aryna Sabalenka (1/5) | Magda Linette (7/2)
A few years back, Aryna Sabalenka was the butt of jokes. She was the uber-talented player who just couldn’t hack it on the game’s biggest stages. She hadn’t got beyond the 4th round of a Slam leading into the 2021 Wimbledon Championships.
But a flip seemed to switch from that moment onwards. She has now reached the semi-finals in four of her last six Grand Slams. And she will be heavily favored to reach her maiden Grand Slam final this week. She has been nothing short of sensational this year.
She has now won nine consecutive straight sets matches in Australia. She blew big-hitting Donna Vekic off the court in unceremonious fashion, overturning an extremely poor head-to-head record with almost comical ease. She is serving solidly and just looks completely unflappable.
We need to put how incredible this Magda Linette performance is into context. The World No.45 has never gone beyond the 3rd round of a Grand Slam in 29 previous appearances.
Now she is in her first Grand Slam semi-final. And it’s not as if she has enjoyed some magical draw without major pitfalls. She had to beat hardcourt dynamo Anett Kontaveit in the 2nd round. She also took down reigning WTA Finals champ Caroline Garcia in straight sets in the 4th.
And she was the epitome of composure against Karoline Pliskova, showing no mercy to the Czech as she became increasingly encumbered by a wrist injury. Linette has credited emotional growth as her key to success this week. The 31-year-old Pole said she used to dwell on poor points for far too long.
I’m sure that emotional maturity is part of the package. But I also think she has become much more aggressive. She is looking to penetrate the court deeper and not merely hang in rallies. I think this more aggressive mindset has been crucial to her success.
Verdict: Sabalenka to win in three at 12/5
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head rivalry 2-0. She hasn’t dropped more than three games in each of the four set she has won. This isn’t too surprising. Sabalenka’s powerhouse brand of tennis should be too much for a nuggety baseliner like Linette.
But the Pole seems to have found an extra gear in this year’s tournament. She hasn’t been content to simply engage in interminable rallies. She has upped the aggression and will look to put pressure on Sabalenka’s serve.
Despite all her hard work, I’m sure the prospect of a maiden Grand Slam final may awaken some of Sabalenka’s notorious nerves. This could give Linette a set. I just think Sabalenka now has the mental fortitude to withstand some resistance.
