The 2023 Men’s US Open is widely seen as a straight shootout between Novak Djokovic and Spanish wunderkind Carlos Alcaraz. Is there a joker in the pack who can spring a surprise? Damien Kayat previews.
2022/2023 ATP Tour
Men’s US Open Championships
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre
28 August – 10 September
Last week’s epic Cincinnati final was the perfect amuse-bouche ahead of the year’s final Slam. Novak Djokovic’s gladiatorial comeback against reigning US Open champ Carlos Alcaraz was the latest chapter in the hottest rivalry in men’s tennis.
World No.1 Alcaraz has broken the hegemony of the old ‘Big Three’ with a brand of tennis that has probably never been seen before. His high-octane, Energizer Bunny style is pure box-office and has really given the men’s game a much-needed shot of adrenalin.
23-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic is not exactly the most beloved figure in the game. In fact, he essentially became a pantomime villain following his rather boneheaded anti-vax stance.
With Federer retired and Nadal perpetually in surgery, the game needed a new benevolent protagonist to go up against Djokovic. Enter Alcaraz.
The Spanish wunderkind was absolutely sensational in New York last year.
Whether it was a ‘tweener’ or a deft drop-shot, Alcaraz showcased an array of shot-making that left his contemporaries drooling with envy. The likes of Zverev and Tsitsipas- perennially frustrated by Djokovic, Federer and Nadal- were left wondering if they had missed out on their Grand Slam window.
Alcaraz downed the Serb in an epic Wimbledon final and most onlookers will be hoping for yet another Alcaraz-Djokovic deathmatch.
Elsewhere, the likes of Medvedev and Sinner will be hoping to disrupt expectations and create some history of their own. The atmosphere in New York is notoriously chaotic and form sometimes takes a backseat to personality and Grand Slam know-how.
Past Champions
- 2022: Carlos Alcaraz bt Casper Rudd (6-2, 2-6, 7-6, 6-3)
- 2021: Daniil Medvedev bt Novak Djokovic (6-4, 6-4, 6-4)
- 2020: Dominic Thiem bt Alex Zverev (2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6)
- 2019: Rafael Nadal bt Daniil Medvedev (7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4)
- 2018: Novak Djokovic bt Juan Martin del Potro (6-3, 7-6, 6-3)
- 2017: Rafael Nadal bt Kevin Anderson (6-3, 6-3, 6-4)
North American Hardcourt Swing Results
- Washington Open: Dan Evans bt Tallon Griekspoor (7-5. 6-3)
- Canadian Open: Jannik Sinner bt Alex de Minaur (6-4, 6-1)
- Cincinnati Masters: Novak Djokovic bt Carlos Alcaraz (5-7, 7-6, 7-6)
- Winston-Salem Open: in progress
The Big Three: Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev
The big three feature the two red-hot favourites, Alcaraz and Djokovic. However, Russian Daniil Medvedev stands every chance but will need to be at his absolute best to overcome the top two seeds.
Carlos Alcaraz – 6/4
With a 2023 record of 53-6, reigning Wimbledon and US Open champ Carlos Alcaraz won’t be letting that Cincinnati defeat keep him up at night.
He is World No.1 for a reason and I think he will feel extremely confident of defending his title. He also knows that his World No.1 ranking is seriously in play following Djokovic’s exploits in Cincinnati. But I think the young Spaniard will prefer this gruelling, five-set format.
He can have slight lulls in performance and bail himself out with his pure shot-making prowess. I think he probably has a slight edge going up against Djokovic in New York.
Novak Djokovic – 6/5
But it is probably foolish to bet against 23-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic. Lest we forget, the Serb won the first two Slams of the year and reached the final in the third.
He is still the guy with the biggest aura in these events and you can’t discount him. But he hasn’t won this event since 2018. That included back-to-back fourth round finishes in 2019 and 2020.
This event comes at the end of a gruelling campaign and it can be incredibly taxing on players’ bodies. That’s why I believe Federer battled to compete in this event in the closing stages of his career.
So, there is a part of me that thinks this could be a tough challenge for the greatest player of all time.
Daniil Medvedev – 7/1
Russian Daniil Medvedev has an impressive 49-11 record this year (which includes five titles). Four of those titles have come on hardcourts and I get the impression that people are sleeping on Medvedev this year.
He won the title here in 2021 and also lost in an absolutely thrilling five-set final in 2019. His serve seems to be getting bigger and bigger and he is one of the best returners in the world. His flat-hitting style allows him to dominate on these surfaces and I really believe he has the chance to disrupt the dream Alcaraz-Djokovic final.
Top 10 Contenders- Jannik Sinner and Frances Tiafoe
I think I can dismiss Holger Rune pretty swiftly. He is under a major injury cloud and he hasn’t really been at the races since his quarterfinal defeat at Wimbledon.
Last year’s beaten finalist Casper Rudd hasn’t looked the same player this season and I struggle to see him competing this year. Stefanos Tsitsipas has never made it beyond the third round here and he may more distracted than usual considering his fledging relationship with Paula Badosa.
Andrey Rublev seems unable to overcome his Grand Slam quarterfinal yips and I can’t see him progressing beyond that stage here. Taylor Fritz will obviously enjoy enthusiastic home support but I just think he is still slightly too one-dimensional to win a Slam.
Jannik Sinner -11/1
I’m willing to look past Jannik Sinner’s disappointing early exit in Cincinnati. The Italian already won the Toronto title and I think he used Cincinnati as little more than a glorified US Open tune-up.
Sinner has enjoyed a remarkably consistent season that has seen him reach two Masters 1000 hardcourt finals (Miami and Toronto). Crucially, the Italian broke his Grand Slam quarterfinal hoodoo with an impressive semi-final run at SW19.
And how can we possibly forget his run at last year’s US Open? Sinner reached the quarterfinals and came up against eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz.
It was arguably the match of the season, with both players pushing the other to the absolute limit of their abilities. Sinner actually held a match point while serving but couldn’t deny the irrepressible Spaniard.
I think he looks laser-focused this season and he will have revenge on his mind.
Frances Tiafoe – 40/1
Frances Tiafoe doesn’t exactly come into this year’s event in the greatest shape. He has been a fairly humdrum 6-5 since claiming his third career title in Stuttgart.
But don’t let that obscure how dangerous the big-serving American can be. He obviously enjoyed his huge breakthrough on these very courts, lighting up last year’s championships with a terrific semi-final run.
And he started this year’s campaign in similarly impressive fashion, reaching his first Masters 1000 semi-final at Indian Wells and picking up two further titles.
He has been disappointing over the last two months but this arena is where he was born to play. He loves to play one-two punch tennis and he isn’t overawed by the occasionally manic atmosphere.
Mid-tier choices- Alex Zverev and Hubert Hurkacz
Both Zverev and Hurkacz had the pedigree to mix it up at the US Open but might well struggle when they come up against the top seeds.
Alex Zverev – 22/1
Alex Zverev has to be on any sane person’s list this week. The German has a remarkable pedigree in this event, losing against Thiem in an epic 2020 final before another semi-final run in 2021.
He was forced to miss last year’s event due to that shocking ankle injury sustained at Roland Garros. But he has recently started to resemble the player who reached as high as number two in the ATP Tour rankings.
The German eased his way back into action with some decent results but it was his brave semi-final showing in Paris that really punctuated his comeback.
He won a recent title in Germany and he is fresh off a very solid semi-final run in Cincinnati. Zverev is starting to move more fluidly and that serve is looking decisive.
Hubert Hurkacz – 40/1
Current World No.17 Hubert Hurkacz has been on the precipice of having a really amazing year. He agonisingly lost to Korda in a fifth set tiebreak in the fourth round of the Aussie Open.
That result almost sums up his entire campaign. He won his sixth career title in Marseille and he has just been unfortunate in some of his recent draws.
He took a set off Novak Djokovic in a pretty even fourth-round Wimbledon clash. And he just pushed Alcaraz to three sets in Toronto and Cincinnati.
That semi-final run in Cincinnati leads me to believe that he is approaching his best level. Sure, he has curiously failed to progress beyond the 2nd round here before. But he just looks like he is on the brink of a real breakthrough.
Lest we forget, the Pole did reach the semi-finals of the 2021 Wimbledon Championships. He also won the Miami Open in 2021 and reached the Canadian Open final last year. He is a heavy hitter who knows how to deliver on the big stages.
Longshot Options – Christopher Eubanks and Matteo Berrettini
I’m not going to get sucked into a Tallon Griekspoor-type pick when it comes to my longshot options. I think it’s better to look out for explosive players who have a bit more Grand Slam experience.
Christopher Eubanks
Sure, Eubanks enters this year’s tournament on the back of three successive defeats. But I haven’t forgotten how dynamic he was during his remarkable grass-court campaign.
He won his maiden title in Mallorca before a herculean run to the Wimbledon quarterfinals. The American will enjoy fanatical support this week and his performance at SW19 tells me that he can harness this rambunctious New York crowd.
He hits plenty of winners and I think he will grow into this event and become a really dangerous dark horse. I reckon he could claim a major scalp or two!
Matteo Berrettini – 40/1
Let’s hope that Matteo Berrettini has overcome the worst of the injury issues that have blighted his career of late. The big-serving Italian emerged as one of the premier Grand Slam threats over the past five years, reaching at least six quarterfinals since 2019.
And he has been uber-consistent in New York, reaching the quarterfinals here in three of the last four editions (the highlight being a semi-final run in 2019).
He beat Zverev en route to the 4th round at Wimbledon and I’m hoping that his impeccable Grand Slam instincts allow him to overcome his recent dip in form.
