Damien Kayat previews the 2023 Men’s Australian Open Selected Quarter-final matches as Novak Djokovic takes on Andrey Rublev and Tommy Paul faces Ben Shelton.
2023 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarter-finals
25 January
Novak Djokovic (2/13) | Andrey Rublev (9/2)
I’m sure those left in the men’s draw were secretly hoping that Djokovic’s apparent hamstring issues would get progressively worse this week. But the Serb looked back to his imperious best against Aussie Alex de Minaur, effectively emptying the stadium with a masterclass of shot-making.
Incredibly, this was the Serb’s 38th consecutive win on Aussie soil. He has not lost at Melbourne Park since the 2018 4th round. And it looks like it’s going to take a minor miracle to halt his passage to a seemingly inevitable 10th Aussie Open crown. Dating back to his defeat to Holger Rune in the Paris Masters final, Djokovic has now won a stunning 15 consecutive matches.
He has almost played within himself for most of the tournament. But poor De Minaur was afforded no luxury. The Serb obviously realized the danger of giving the home crowd anything to latch on to. He looks a man possessed after being unceremoniously booted out of the country last year.
In stark contrast to Djokovic, Andrey Rublev came into this year’s Aussie Open with absolutely horrendous form. He had early exits at the Paris Masters and both Adelaide events.
And Rublev has developed a reputation for underperforming at the Grand Slam level. Isn’t it remarkable that the 13-time ATP Tour winner is yet to reach a Grand Slam semi-final? So, many never expected him to thrive this fortnight. And it has been a struggle.
The Russian hasn’t really brought his A-game to proceedings. He has looked impatient at times and has tried to force the issue. His 4th round victory over Holger Rune was a perfect distillation of the good and bad of Rublev. He played some devastating tennis (particularly on his forehand wing).
But he looked uncomfortable in the longer exchanges and committed far too many unforced errors. But he did show remarkable composure to save two match-points and conquer the Dane. How much gas will Rublev have left in the tank after that marathon?
Verdict: Djokovic to win in four at 2/1
Djokovic leads the head-to-head 2-1. The Serb trounced Rublev in straight sets at last year’s ATP Finals. Could that hamstring actually be a factor? Or was this all some psychological gamesmanship by the Serb? Rublev is going to have to be more consistent in the defensive aspects of his game.
He looks great on offence, penetrating the court with that forehand. But he has struggled when players get into extended rallies. And what is Djokovic if not a master of extended rallies? Still, I think Rublev has the class to take a set. But there will simply be no stopping the former World No.1.
Tommy Paul (4/11) vs Ben Shelton (85/40)
For the first time since 2000, three Americans have reached the Aussie Open quarterfinals. And none of them are named Taylor Fritz. What a fairy tale ride it has been for 20-year-old Blake Shelton.
Granted, the physically imposing lefty has benefitted from an extremely favourable draw: he is yet to face a player ranked inside the top 50 in the world rankings. Still, the American has shown plenty of composure for someone who was ranked outside the top 400 in July.
The American’s game is really based on one major weapon: his serve. Cut from the cloth of John Isner and Andy Roddick, Shelton has a beast of a serve that can help him win plenty of cheap points.
He also isn’t afraid of coming in behind the serve to finish off points at the net (ala Goran Ivanisevic). He will obviously need that weapon to operate at peak capacity as he faces his toughest opponent yet: Tommy Paul.
World No.35 Tommy Paul continued his excellent tournament with a very composed victory against veteran Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut.
The 2021 Stockholm Open champion is coming off the best season of his career (where he momentarily snuck into the top 30 in the world). He reached the 4th round of Wimbledon and the 3rd round of the US Open.
That means his record currently stand at 9-2 in his last three Slams. He also picked up top 3 wins against Alex Zverev and Rafa Nadal. Paul doesn’t have a dominating serve like Shelton.
He relies on greater variety, mixing aggression with strong defensive abilities. He also does have the tendency to approach the net from time to time. He will feel confident of absorbing the Shelton barrage and outlasting him in the extended rallies.
Verdict: Shelton to win in four at 13/2
This will be the first career meeting between these two. I know the logical money is on Paul to outclass his opponent with his greater all-round game. But I just feel that Shelton could ride the wave to victory here.
That serve is explosive and will be hard to counter if utilized effectively. It’s the type of serve that can keep a player on terms even if he is playing poorly. This has been the Aussie Open of crazy results. Why not bring on another?
