Damien Kayat previews the 2023 Men’s Australian Open as Hubert Hurkacz faces Lorenzo Sonego and Botic van de Zandschulp takes on Tallon Griekspoor.
2023 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
Selected Matches
19 January
Hubert Hurkacz (1/4) | Lorenzo Sonego (3/1)
Over the past two years, 25-year-old Pole Hubert Hurkack has quietly become one of the most reliable players on the entire tour. He won the Miami Open and reached the Wimbledon semi-finals in a breakthrough 2021 campaign.
And though he somewhat disappointed on the Grand Slam level in 2022- he delivered elsewhere. He reached the semi-finals in Dubai and Miami. He then won his maiden ATP 500 title in Halle. He would also reach yet another Masters 1000 final in Canada. The powerful all-court player has become one of the most ruthlessly efficient hardcourt players on the planet.
And this was on full display during his opening round demolition of poor Pedro Martinez. Just look at these stats: the Pole hit an astonishing 53 winners to just 19 unforced errors. That is close to perfect tennis. His big serve and massive forehand just pummeled the poor Spaniard into submission. Curiously, the Pole is yet to progress beyond the 2nd round in Melbourne. Surely this must be the year to rectify that.
27-year-old Lorenzo Sonego is a three-time ATP Tour winner and is often hard to gauge. He has the capacity to go on a seven-match losing streak before suddenly going deep in a tournament.
Sonego is in the mould of that newer breed of Italian player who is fairly comfortable on harder surfaces (think Berrettini and Sinner). He hits the ball flat and penetrates the court well (this explains why he reached the 3rd round here last year). He actually enjoyed a pretty dismal 2022 before suddenly winning his 3rd ATP Tour title at the Moselle Open. He was ultimately made to work for his first-round victory against Nuno Borges.
He hit the same number of winners as Hurkacz (53). But he hit a staggering 43 unforced errors. He is going to need to cut out some of those if he stands any chance here.
Verdict: Hurkacz to win in four at 85/40
I was pretty surprised to learn that Sonego holds a commanding 3-1 head-to-head advantage over the Pole. The Italian actually won their last two encounters (both on indoor hardcourts) in straight sets. Sonego’s defensive capabilities allow him to absorb and redirect Hurkacz’s power. But I just think the Pole looked imperious in his opening match.
Botic van de Zandschulp (5/6) | Tallon Griekspoor (20/21)
Curiously, this will be the first time since 2001 that two Dutch tennis players will face each other in a Grand Slam. And these two know each all too well (they actually won last year’s European Open doubles event together). Dutch No.1 Botic can de Zandschulp has actually enjoyed quite a meteoric rise over the last 18 months or so.
He rose to prominence in 2021, becoming only the 3rd qualifier in US Open history to reach the quarterfinal stage of the tournament. He once again showcased his Grand Slam credentials with a 4th round run at last year’s Wimbledon Championships.
He also showed excellent all-court dexterity throughout the year, reaching semi-finals on clay, grass and hardcourts. He reached his first ATP final in Munich (ultimately withdrawing from the final due to chest pain). He came through a tricky opening encounter against Ilya Ivashka and will be eager to take down his good mate.
Dutch No.2 Tallon Griekspoor is a really interesting little sleeper this week. Many will remember him for his trailblazing exploits on the Challenger circuit (he won a record eight titles on the 2021 Challenger Tour).
He reached his first ATP Tour level quarterfinal with a run to the quarters at the Melbourne Summer Set 1. But other than that- he was pretty nondescript. But that has changed in 2023, with Griekspoor capturing his maiden ATP Tour title at the Maharashtra Open.
He would have felt a bit nervous about playing first-round opponent Pavel Kotov: Kotov has beaten him in their previous two encounter. But the Dutchman brushed him aside with nonchalant ease, extending his winning streak to five matches.
Verdict: Van de Zandschulp to win in five at 15/4
They have only met once on the senior tour (with Van de Zandschulp winning in straight sets at last year’s Winston-Salem event). I just have the feeling that this one is going all the way. Van de Zandschulp will look to dictate points while Griekspoor chases everything down. I just feel that Van de Zandschulp’s Grand Slam experience will help steer him to a narrow victory.
