Damien Kayat previews Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev (ATP Tour) and Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys (WTA Tour) in Selected Semi-final matches of the US open Championships, on the 8th of September 2023.
2023 ATP/WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
US Open Championships
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre, New York, USA (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Semi-final preview – 8th September
ATP Tour
Carlos Alcaraz 2/7 | Daniil Medvedev 13/5
Carlos Alcaraz never actually started his quarterfinal clash with Zverev that well, trying far too many ill-judged drop-shots and hitting a slew of errors. But Alcaraz- like the true champion he is- found a way. The quality of his tennis got better in the 2nd, and you almost had to feel for the visibly fatigued German.
He pulverized Zverev’s 2nd serve and dominated the net. But a medical time-out helped Zverev come out rejuvenated in the 3rd and it actually got quite competitive before Alcaraz sealed the deal. The reigning Wimbledon and US Open champion is now 16-1 in this arena.
He feeds off the manic New York energy as if he were a stereotypical New Yorker. He has a cocksure swagger that flirts with arrogance. He will be looking to solidify his place in the semi-finals as another potential grudge-match with Djokovic looms.
Daniil Medvedev verbalised what many in New York have been thinking during his straight-sets victory over compatriot Andrey Rublev, stating that ‘one player is going to die’. He was obviously referring to the disgustingly hot conditions that have made some of these quarterfinal matches feel somewhat absurd.
They actually could close the roof and turn on the air-conditioning. In any event, defensive maestro Medvedev consigned Rublev to his 9th consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal defeat (ouch). Rublev actually led by a break in each set only for the remarkably dexterous Medvedev to crawl his way back into control.
Medvedev has been outstanding this year and he now enters his 7th Grand Slam semi-final (and his 4th in New York). He lost the 2019 final to Nadal before winning his maiden Grand Slam title with victory over Djokovic in 2021. He holds a remarkable 26-3 record here since 2019.
Verdict: Alcaraz to win
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 2-1, soundly beating the Russian in their two meetings this year. Medvedev is going to be up against it following the murderous heat he played in against Rublev. I think that Medvedev’s positioning could cause some problems for the Spainard.
He will return from deep- like Zverev- but he tends to make up that space far more efficiently when he needs to. But the Spaniard is just playing too well in the big moments to be denied.
WTA Tour
Aryna Sabalenka 38/100 | Madison Keys 2/1
The Aryna Sabalenka juggernaut just rolls on. Seemingly emboldened by the news that both Swiatek and Rybakina have been eliminated, the Belarusian has been a force of nature in New York.
Her 73-minute demolition of Qinwen Zheng continued her amazing record of not dropping more than five games in one match this entire fortnight. She won a staggering 37 of 46 total points on serve, becoming the first woman since Serena Williams in 2016 to reach all four Grand Slam semi-finals in one season.
She has now reached five consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals and three consecutive US Open semi-finals (she lost to Fernandez in 2021 and to Swiatek last season). But this is where Sabalenka’s recent history gets a bit dicey. She has a perfect 7-0 win-loss record in Grand Slam quarterfinals but she only owns a 1-5 record in Grand Slam semi-finals.
In fact, she threw away a match-point in this year’s French Open semi-final against Muchova. She would also lead by a set and a break against Jabeur before capitulating in their Wimbledon semi-final. So, there is precedent for a sizable Sabalenka collapse.
Perennial dark horse Madison Keys reached her 6th career Grand Slam semi-final following a solid straight-sets win against injury-affected Marketa Vondrousova. Keys is almost like a female version of Juan Martin Dl Potro.
She has a dominant first-serve and she looks to dictate play with one of the most devastating forehands in the game. She ultimately ended up with a first-serve rate of 70%, constantly pegging Vondrousova back on return. She also hit 18 winners to Vondrousova’s 10, using that ultra-aggressive style to great effect in these oppressive conditions.
Keys won her 7th title earlier this year in Eastbourne before a Grand Slam quarterfinal run at Wimbledon. But this is the event that she loves the most. She memorably lost to Sloane Stephens in the 2017 final before reaching the final four the following year. This will be her 3rd Flushing Meadows semi-final and could she be the one who finally steals a set off Sabalenka?
Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight-sets
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 2-1, soundly beating the American at Wimbledon this year. Sure, Keys was hugely impressive against Vondrousova.
But the Czech did squander nine break-point opportunities. To put that into perspective, Sabalenka didn’t face one break-point in her entire match against Zheng. The Belarusian won a staggering 23 of 26 first-serve points against the Chinese player and I think that’s telling.
I have almost been waiting for Sabalenka’s to implode this fortnight. But she appears to have an ice-cold focus and I think she will easily take down the American.
