Damien Kayat previews Borna Coric vs Fabian Marozsan and Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Anhelina Kalinina in the round of 16 matches of the Italian Open, on the 16th of May 2023.
2023 WTA/ATP Tour
WTA 1000/ATP 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 16 Matches – 12th May
ATP 1000
Borna Coric 2/5 | Fabian Marozsan 17/10
26-year-old Borna Coric is a somewhat maddening proposition. He can come out of nowhere and just put on a show on the biggest stage. But then he will often lose five consecutive matches in the aftermath of a brilliant performance.
He won the Cincinnati Masters last year and hasn’t really been able to build on that this year. And the transition to clay didn’t start too encouragingly: he lost his first two clay-court matches this season. But the defensive baseliner bounced back in style in Madrid, reaching his first career clay-court Masters 1000 semi-final.
I had my doubts whether he would be able to physically bounce back in Rome. And the strain certainly showed as he saved a match-point in a grueling opening match with Monteiro. But he prevailed in that match and soundly dispatched of Carballes Baena in his second match.
I didn’t expect the Croatian to find consistency on his least favorite surface. But he will feel confident of making it back-to-back Masters 1000 quarterfinals.
Wow! That must be one of the most stunning upsets in recent tennis history. World no.135 Fabian Marozsan is only the 3rd ranked male in Hungarian tennis.
What chance did he have against Carlos Alcaraz carrying a 30-2 win-loss record for the year? And lest we forget, the Hungarian is making his ATP 1000 main-draw debut this week. But he showed no nerves whatsoever, hitting 30 winners to Alcaraz’s 15.
It was a display of relentless hitting power that kept the World No.1 pinned back in the court. He also had the audacity to outduel Alcaraz in the drop-shot department. The Hungarian has been making strides on the Challenger Tour of late, winning his maiden Challenger Tour title in August last year.
He also won a clay-court Challenger event in March. But he actually rocked up to this Rome event in really poor form, losing five of his previous six matches. I think Alcaraz will probably be secretly pleased that he is able to get a bit more rest ahead of next week’s French Open.
Verdict: Coric to win in straight sets – 21/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Coric will probably feel quite confident with letting Marozsan take the initiative. I think the Hungarian may feel frustrated by Coric’s more controlled approach. He isn’t going to engage the Hungarian in a similar way to Alcaraz. I expect Coric’s experience to see him through.
WTA 1000
Beatriz Haddad Maia 4/6 | Anhelina Kalinina 11/10
Brazilian Beatriz Haddad Maia has defied the odds with an excellent showing in Rome. The statuesque lefty doesn’t really have a game tailored for clay-court success (she has never reached a clay-court final in her career).
She has a powerful serve and likes to keep points concise. This was evident when she won those back-to-back titles in Nottingham and Birmingham last year. She also reached the Canadian final in a tremendous 2022.
She hasn’t quite been able to replicate that form in 2023 (though she did reach a semi-final in Abu Dhabi). She enjoyed a decent start to the clay-court season with a quarterfinal run in Stuttgart. But a first-round exit in Madrid did not auger well for this challenge.
But she has taken advantage of a favourable draw and sailed into the quarterfinal without dropping a set. She only faced one break-point in her entire round of 16 match against Osorio. This type of serving dominance has really typified the Brazilian’s performance in Rome.
Ukrainian Anhelina Kalinina has been one of the surprise packages in Rome. She has endured a pretty humdrum year. She reached the quarterfinal stage in Hobart prior to a 3rd round run at the Aussie Open.
But her season really threatened to unwind of late (she came into this tournament on the back of four successive defeats). That run included poor first-round defeats in Charleston and Madrid. But she looked undeterred in her opening two matches, easily breezing past Blinkova and former Aussie Open champ Sofia Kenin.
She then produced one of the shocks of the tournament, coming from a set down to defeat strong clay-courter Madison Keys. She was able to absorb Keys’ considerable power and use it against her. That match was almost the ideal preparation for this challenge.
Verdict: Haddad Maia to win in straight sets – 13/8
Kalinina won their only previous top-level encounter, prevailing at last year’s Miami Open in three sets. I just think Haddad Maia has enough power to blast through Kalinina. That awkward lefty serve is tricky for opponents to deal with and I think she will dominate on serve.
