Damien Kayat previews Andy Murray vs Fabio Fognini and Elina Svitolina vs Lesia Tsurenko in the Round of 128 matches of the Italian Open, on the 10th of May 2023.
2023 ATP/WTA Tour
ATP/WTA 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 128 Matches – 10th May
ATP Tour
Andy Murray 2/5 | Fabio Fognini 13/8
You have to wonder how much Andy Murray is going to have in the tank this week. The 35-year-old Scot just won his first title since 2019 at the ATP Challenger in Aix-en-Provence.
Sure, it was a second-tier event (it was actually his first Challenger-Level victory in 18 years). But he still managed to overcome Aussie-Open semi-finalist Tommy Paul in the final. It was a significant result in that it has propelled the surly Scot back to number 42 in the world.
If he manages a decent end to the clay-court campaign, the Briton may be able to secure himself a seed for his beloved Wimbledon. He has battled with being unseeded and coming up against strong opponents in the early portions of draws.
Murray won the title here in 2016 and has always been a formidable opponent on clay. But you have to think that the vagaries of last week’s victory may be an issue given his injury-riddled history.
Next up for Andy Murray is a tricky encounter against fellow veteran Fabio Fognini. The 35-year-old Italian is your archetypal clay-court specialist.
Of the 19 finals he has reached in his ATP career- 14 of them have come on clay. In fact, eight of his nine title have been won on the sticky stuff. The highlight of these results was a sensational victory at the 2019 Monte-Carlo Masters.
But he hasn’t been able to reach a final since. The former French Open quarterfinalist has struggled with consistency as he has reached into his mid 30’s. He comes into this match with a pretty dreadful 2-8 record for the year.
But he still managed to push wunderkind Carlos Alcaraz to three sets in Rio. The truth is this: Fognini has the capacity to push anyone to the brink on these surfaces. And he would dearly love to win this week. He famously lost in cool and blew a 3-0 final-set lead against Murray at the 2016 Olympics.
Verdict: Fognini to win in three at 21/5
Fognini and Murray share the head-to-head spoils at four wins apiece. That’s an indication of how ridiculously close this rivalry has been. Having said that, Fognini has won their last two encounters and their last clay-court encounter (at this event in 2017).
I can see Fognini getting motivated and picking himself up for this grudge match. He will use his brutal forehand to pummel Murray into submission. I think Murray is going to struggle with the physical hangover of last week.
WTA Tour
Elina Svitolina 13/10 | Lesia Tsurenko 11/20
This should be a fascinating all-Ukrainian clash in Rome. It has been a tough road back to competitive action for former World No.3 Elina Svitolina. She only returned to the tour in April after a year-long maternity break (she is currently playing under protected status).
She is fresh off an encouraging semi-final run at the Saint-Malo Challenger (she lost in the final four to former US Open champion Sloane Stephens). She needed that because she had been 1-4 prior to the Saint-Malo Challenger.
It may take the 28-year-old a considerable amount of time to reach her optimum levels. But she is coming to the right place if she is looking for some positive juju.
Svitolina has an exceptional record here, winning back-to-back Rome titles in 2017 and 2018. She also reached the quarterfinals here in 2020 and 2021. Could she draw from that experience and reignite her career?
33-year-old Lesia Tsurenko has had a far less illustrious career, winning four titles and reaching a career-high ranking of 23. And the last of those titles came at the 2018 Abierto Mexicano.
She lost her form over the last few years and fell out of the world’s top 100. But she has experienced a bit of a resurgence this year, reaching her first final in four years at the Hua Hin Championships.
She made it to the 3rd round of the Indian Wells Open as a qualifier and just reached the same stage at the Madrid Open. Tsurenko has always been a doughty competitor (though the majority of her success has come on hard surfaces).
Still, I think this will be a rare opportunity for her to have her compatriot’s number.
Verdict: Tsurenko to win in three at 13/5
Svitolina leads Tsurenko 2-1 in their head-to-head rivalry, last winning in straight sets at the 2017 Cincinnati Open. Obviously, this would be a fairly comfy Svitolina win had she been in her prime.
But I think Tsurenko’s decent recent form is enough to suggest she should prevail against an extremely rusty Svitolina. Tsurenko’s forehand has looked impressive of late and I can see her forcing plenty of errors out of Svitolina.
