Damien Kayat previews the 2023 Toray Pan Pacific Open.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 500
Toray Pan Pacific Open
Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 28th September
Caroline Garcia (3/4) vs Anhelina Kalinina (10/11)
French hardcourt specialist Caroline Garcia is coming off undoubtedly the best outing of her season in Guadalajara. Garcia- last year’s WTA Finals champ- has really struggled with consistency this season. As I have said before, her ultra-aggressive approach can get a bit one-dimensional. She reached finals in two lesser events in Lyon and Monterrey. But she has struggled to make an impact in the type of high-profile events that she flourished in towards the end of last season.
She found her footing in Guadalajara last week, beating an impressive Azarenka to reach her first WTA 1000 semi-final of the season. But she was absolutely thrashed by Sakkari in the final four and it will be interesting to see how Garcia responds to that drubbing. Sakkari really laid down the blueprint for success against Garcia. She committed only three unforced errors in the match, essentially allowing Garcia to thwart herself with errors.
Can Anhelina Kalinina inflict yet another upset win over Garca? The Ukrainian comes into this match following a crushing first-round victory against teenager Ashlyn Krueger. Kalinina improved to 23-22 for the season with that opening victory. Her season has really been defined by her heroic efforts in Rome, where she reached only her 2nd career final in a highly decorated WTA 1000 event. It was really a showcase for her clay-court prowess. She is yet to beat a top ten player this year.
Having said that, she did vanquish two players just ranked outside the top ten (Petra Kvitova and Veronika Kudermetova). The durable baseliner doesn’t really possess the types of weapons that can consistently penetrate the court. But she has a big heart and tries to run down everything in sight. And that fetishistic need to get the ball back in play is exactly what she needs against the erratic Garcia.
The Verdict: Kalinina to win in three
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Obviously, Garcia is the favourite here. She is a hardcourt specialist who is fresh off her best showing of the year. But I think there’s enough doubt here to chase the value and opt for a hard-fought Kalinina win. Kalinina is the type of steady baseliner who Garcia has struggled against this season. She will retrieve plenty of balls and I can imagine Garcia making plenty of errors. Also, Garcia’s humbling defeat to Sakkari may have left some residual damage.
Linda Noskova (8/11) vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (20/21)
This should prove to be a fascinating clash of generations. Teenage sensation Linda Noskova has enjoyed a really impressive breakthrough campaign that has helped propel her into the top 50 in the world rankings. In fact, she is now the 2nd highest ranked teenager in the world behind the redoubtable Coco Gauff. She started the year in incredible fashion, picking up victories over the likes of Jabeur and Azarenka en route to her maiden WTA final in Adelaide. Consistency has proved elusive for the Czech since that run.
However, she did reach her 2nd WTA final in front of her home fans at the Prague Open. She followed that up with victory over Kvitova in Cincinnati. She also pushed Ons Jabeur to three sets in their 2nd round US Open tie. She just breezed past Sakatsume and she will be desperate to finish this season like she stared it- in style.
A former French Open finalist, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has really struggled with injuries over the last two years. These setbacks have seen her ranking plummet to just inside the top 100 in the world. She barely played during the North American hardcourt season. In fact, her only win during that period came against a player ranked 729th in the world. The 32-year-old veteran hasn’t reached a final since her exceptional run at Roland Garros in 2021. You actually have to go back to 2019 to find a final before that. But you shouldn’t discount the injury-ravaged Russian.
The 12-time WTA winner can beat anyone on her day. She also happens to have a spectacular record in this event, finishing runner-up in 2017 and 2019. Crucially, she just blew Donna Vekic off the court in her opening match, improving her season stats to 20-14 in the process. The Russian is far more capable than her current ranking suggests.
The Verdict: Pavlyuchenkova to win in straight sets
This will unsurprisingly be the first career meeting between these two. Pavlyuchenkova’s comfortable win over Vekic will have sent some chills through this section of the draw. It was arguably her most complete performance of the season and I think she will easily move past the up-and-coming Czech.
