Danien Kayat previews Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stan Wawrinka and Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs Fabio Fognini in selected Round of 32 matches of the Swiss Open Gstaad, on the 18th of July 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Swiss Open Gstaad
Roy Emerson Arena, Gstaad, Switzerland (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 18th July
Roberto Carballes Baena 31/20 | Stan Wawrinka 4/9
People tend to throw around the term ‘clay-court specialist’ quite liberally these days. 30-year-old Spaniard Roberto Carballes Baena is a clay-court specialist in the truest sense.
To put it into context- 35 of his 37 Challenger and Futures finals have been played on the sticky stuff. In fact, he only reached his first ATP hardcourt quarterfinal at last year’s Firenze Open. And this season has really seen a continuation of that theme.
He broke into the world’s top 50 for the first time in his career courtesy of a 2nd career title at the Grand Prix Hassan II. Four of his five wins in Marrakech were pugnacious, grueling three-set epics. And that’s pretty much what you get from the dogged competitor.
He picked up a few rare Masters 1000 wins over the European clay-court swing. But he was just eliminated in the early stages of the Salzburg Challenger and he could do with a morale-boosting win.
It’s a sign of Stan Wawrinka’s amazing durability that he lost to Gaston Gaudio (remember him) in the 2005 final of this event. The 38-year-old Swiss player may never recapture the glory that saw him break the hegemony of the ‘Big Three’ and win three Grand Slam titles.
But he has certainly enjoyed an improved season that has seen him rise to a current world ranking of 74. He will be using this week as a little springboard prior to the start of the North American hardcourt season.
Wawrinka doesn’t actually possess a great record in Gstaad (the 2005 final aside). He currently holds a 9-10 career record here and he hasn’t played the event in ten years. He is fresh off a decent 3rd round Wimbledon run that ended in a fairly routine defeat to arch-nemesis Djokovic.
These are exactly the sort of tournaments where Wawrinka needs to cash in if he wants to edge back into the seedings of a Grand Slam event.
Verdict: Wawrinka to win in straight sets at 11/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two. I think Wawrinka is still a fearsome opponent to those ranked outside the top 30 in the world. He is in excellent physical condition and looked in good form at SW19. I expect him to shine in his first Swiss Open in a decade.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas 7/10 | Fabio Fognini 1/1
35-year-old veteran Albert Ramos-Vinolas has endured a tough time this season. The veteran clay-court operator has accumulated a poor 6-19 tour-level record this year. His best results of the year were a semi-final run in Cordoba and a quarterfinal run in Rio.
He will be looking to draw some inspiration from an event where he has plenty of positive juju. Ramos-Vinolas won the title here in 2019, beating Cedrik-Marcel Stebe in the final.
He lost to eventual champ Casper Rudd in last year’s semi-finals and reached the quarterfinal stage in his only other main draw appearance in 2016. He will be hoping that some of that form bleeds into his current game.
The four-time ATP tour winner could do with a little positivity ahead of what is likely to be a tough North American hardcourt season.
I think it’s fair to say that Fabio Fognini’s days in the game are numbered. The 36-year-old has plummeted down the rankings over the past few seasons (he recently fell out of the top 125 in the world rankings).
But the proficient clay-court operator will always be a dangerous dark-horse competitor in understrength events such as these. In fact, the hard-hitting Italian actually won the title here back in 2017.
But the truth is this: Fognini hasn’t reached an ATP final since his remarkable victory at the 2019 Monte-Carlos Masters. Many of the European and South American clay-court players need consistent tennis to stay sharp. This is where I think that subset of professionals was probably more affected by the Covid lockdown than most.
And I think Fognini falls firmly into that category. Still, he has a gigantic forehand that can pose a problem to anyone.
Verdict: Fognini to win in straight sets at 21/10
These two clay-court aficionados are certainly no strangers to each other. This will be their 13th tour-level meeting and 14th meeting overall. The Italian holds an imperious 11-2 advantage in their overall head-to-head rivalry.
Fognini won in straight sets when they last met in Cincinnati last year. In fact, you have to go back to 2016 and 2017 to find the Ramos-Vinolas victories. And I really think that will once again be the case.
The Spaniard is in dreadful form and Fognini just has more weapons at his disposal. I can see him pummeling that forehand down the line, exploiting the lefty’s somewhat vulnerable backhand wing.
