Damien Kayat previews Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Botic van de Zandschulp and Frances Tiafoe vs Gael Monfils in selcted round of 16 matches of the Swiss Indoors/ Erste Bank Open on the 26th of October 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 500
Swiss Indoors/ Erste Bank Open
Selected Round of 16 Matches – 26th October
SWISS INDOORS
Felix Auger-Aliassime 52/100 | Botic van de Zandschulp 29/20
I think it’s fair to say that Felix Auger-Aliassime is the most underperforming player in men’s tennis at this moment. The hugely talented Canadian has only won 18 of his 37 matches all season. He went into last week’s Japan Open with a 3-11 record in his last 14 matches!
That included first round defeats at the last three majors. What on earth has happened? I honestly think he is mentally struggling with the rise of players like Alcaraz and Sinner. Wasn’t he supposed to be the man who replaced the ‘Big Three’? At least he showed some improvement in Japan, reaching his first quarterfinal in an absolute age.
He just blew Riedi off the court and he will be dreaming of replicating his title winning run from last season. Auger-Aliassime won four indoor titles in an incredible spell year, underlining his suitability to these quick conditions. Can he silence some of the naysayers by making it to back-to-back quarterfinals?
Sure, Dutchman Botic van de Zandschulp doesn’t carry the same level of expectations as the misfiring Canadian. But he won’t be pleased with his own form this season (he has only won 20 of his 42 matches).
He actually started the season pretty well, reaching the semi-finals of the Maharashtra Open and the quarterfinals in Dubai. He would go on to push Holger Rune to three sets in the Munich final (he actually lost to Rune in the final of the same event last season).
But his form has absolutely plateaued since parting ways with longtime coach Lucassen in May. The Dutchman just ground out a tough three-set victory over the venerable Roberto Bautista Agut.
He had to come through qualifying this week and the last thing he really needed was a bruising Bautista Agut slugfest. But he is nothing if not durable: he memorably reached the quarterfinals of the 2021 US Open after coming through qualifying in murderous heat.
Verdict: Auger Aliassime to win in three sets at 11/4
These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece. Van de Zandschulp actually won their last encounter at last year’s Indian Wells Masters. I actually think the Dutchman has a decent upset chance.
He is a tireless worker and he will keep Auger-Alissime honest. Also, the Canadian’s poor form is hard to ignore. Still, I think the defending champion is extremely comfortable here and I can see him fending off a spirted Dutch challenge.
ERSTE BANK OPEN
Frances Tiafoe 96/100 | Gael Monfils 82/100
This one has blockbuster written all over it. American Frances Tiafoe has really come of age over the last 18 months or so. He has compiled a very respectable season, picking up 38 wins from 57 matches.
He helped guide USA to the inaugural United Cup and he also picked up individual titles in Stuttgart and Houston. He also impressed on the bigger stages, reaching the semi-finals at Indian Wells and the quarterfinals at the US Open. But his form during the Asian swing was abysmal- he suffered first round losses in Shanghai and Tokyo.
In fact, he was trailing Dan Evans in this week’s opener before the Englishman was forced to retire. Maybe that was exactly the type of luck Tiafoe needed to reignite his season. Tiafoe’s brand of high-octane, aggressive tennis should make him an ideal candidate for indoor conditions (a point he proved by reaching the final of this event in 2021).
I actually wasn’t sure if the ever-engaging Frenchman would return to action following his six-month injury hiatus. He has a young family now and I really thought he might lack the desire. Boy was I wrong. Monfils has accumulated 16 wins from 28 matches since returning to action. He showed his quality with a quarterfinal run at the Toronto Masters.
He then defied Father Time with a title-winning run at the Stockholm Open. His opening victory against Altmaier actually extended his current winning-streak to six matches. He clearly still has a deep love of the game and it’s completely infectious.
He actually reached the final here way back in 2008 and you can’t put it past him to do it again. But it’s going to be challenging for the flamboyant Frenchman to go deep after such a gruelling week in Stockholm.
Verdict: Tiafoe to win in straight-sets at 9/4
The head-to-head between these two is evenly poised at 1-1, with Tiafoe winning their last clash at the 2021 Canadian Open. I think it’s about time for the real Tiafoe to come out of hiding. He will look to dictate play with his huge serve and potent forehand.
I think Monfils will be feeling the strain of playing back-to-back tournaments and he will find it hard to play his usual, hyperactive game.
