Damien Kayat previews Taylor Fritz vs Stan Wawrinka and Holger Rune vs Dominic Thiem in the Selected Round of 32 Matches of the Monte-Carlo Masters, on 12 April 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Monte- Carlo Masters
Monte Carlo Country Club (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 12th April
Taylor Fritz 42/100 | Stan Wawrinka 8/5
World No.10 Taylor Fritz has enjoyed a remarkably consistent campaign thus far. The 2022 Indian Wells champion started the year in excellent fashion, helping to guide America to victory in the United Cup (he won four of his five singles ties).
He then suffered a rather chastening 2nd round exit at the Aussie Open. But his form since then has been excellent. He reached the semi-finals in Dallas before winning his 5th career title at Delray Beach. He reached the semis in Acapulco prior to back-to-back quarterfinals during the ‘Sunshine Double’.
Still, the American is yet to reach a clay-court final in his career. And this will be his first match on the red dirt all season. He reached the quarterfinals here last season (going down to eventual finalist Davidovich Fokina).
Fritz’s success is built around a solid service (he is 2nd on tour this year for first-serve points won). He will need to bring slightly more dimension to his game to consistently prosper on this surface.
You have to admire the durability of 38-year-old Stan Wawrinka. The three-time Major champion could have easily gone the way of compatriot Roger Federer and hung up his boots.
But his love for the game remains undimmed and he showed massive character to come back from a set down against Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor. He hit an impressive 35 winners to win his 22nd match at this Masters 1000 event (he won the title in the Principality in 2014).
Wawrinka is actually having a really decent, under-the-radar season. He followed back-to-back quarterfinals in Rotterdam and Marseille with a solid round of 16 run at Indian Wells. He accounted for both Miomir Kecmanovic and Holger Rune in that stout Indian Wells performance. He needs to serve better against Fritz.
He won an ordinary 66% of his first-serve points against Griekspoor. But he ultimately had to save nine break points to tread water in the match. But you always have to take Wawrinka seriously on this surface. 13 of his 30 career finals have come on clay.
Also, three of his four Masters 1000 finals have come on this surface. The former French Open champion is a renowned fighter who still has plenty of grit.
Verdict: Wawrinka to win in three
Wawrinka leads Fritz 2-0 in their head-to-head encounters. But it’s been some time since they last met (at the 2018 Japan Open). I think there is a chance for an upset. Wawrinka knows these surfaces intimately and the American will be playing his first clay-court match of the season.
I actually think it’s advantageous that Wawrinka was thoroughly tested by Griekspoor. He will be match-ready after choosing to skip Miami.
Holger Rune 31/100 | Dominic Thiem 85/40
This should be an interesting clash between the old guard and the NextGen talent. 19-year-old sensation Holger Rune rose to prominence with an astounding 2022 campaign, winning three titles including the Paris Masters (where he beat Djokovic in the final).
Though his standout success came on hardcourts; it was clay where the magic started. He won his maiden ATP Tour title at last year’s Bavarian Tennis Championship. He then went on a herculean run at Roland Garros, stunning 4th seed Tsitsipas on his way to a quarterfinal showing.
Rune hasn’t quite been in the same devastating form this season. He is yet to reach a final thus far: semi-finals in Montpelier and Acapulco have been his best results.
Still, he does have a pretty decent overall 14-7 record for the year. Up next for the rising star is former clay-court expert Dominic Thiem.
Rafael Nadal is the undisputed King of Clay. For some time, Dominic Thiem was the undisputed Prince in waiting. He lost back-to-back French Open finals to Nadal in 2018 and 2019.
He also lost back-to-back Madrid finals in 2017 and 2018. The 2020 US Open champion has won 10 of his 17 career titles on clay. But it has not been an easy path back to form after years of injury issues.
Thiem has a lousy 4-9 record this season. His quarterfinal run at Estoril actually broke a streak of five consecutive losses. But Thiem did look a lot better on clay last week.
And he looked remarkably composed in his opening round victory against Richard Gasquet, hitting 18 winners to register his first Masters 1000 match since 2021 in Rome. That being said, Thiem actually has a pretty ordinary 7-6 record in this very event.
Verdict: Thiem to win at 85/40
This will be the first career meeting between these two. I really think there’s value once again in the upset here. Thiem played his best tennis in some time against Gasquet.
Despite his clay-court success last year, Rune is still a work in progress on clay-courts. Maybe I’m naively backing on the old Thiem to suddenly resurface. But I still think there’s more top level tennis in the Austrian.
