Damien Kayat previews Holger Rune vs Taylor Fritz and Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Tommy Paul in the Round of 16 Matches of the Miami Masters, on 28 March 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Miami Masters
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches – 28th March
Holger Rune 23/20 | Taylor Fritz 8/13
This was always going to be a pivotal season in the progress of 19-year-old wunderkind Holger Rune. The Dane took the tour by storm last year, winning three titles and ending the year in the top ten of the ATP rankings.
All of this was punctuated by that herculean victory at the Paris Masters. He beat five top ten players (including the nigh-on invincible Novak Djokovic in the final). I think it was always going to be tough for him to race out the blocks this year.
Some of the surprise factor has gone and he has faced a few setbacks (chief of them being a loss to veteran Stan Wawrinka at Indian Wells). But the Dane has looked solid in Miami, vanquishing both Marton Fucsovics and Diego Schwartzman in straight sets.
He hit a combined total of 49 winners in those matches and has looked back to his best on serve (his delivery has eluded him this year). But he won 81% of his first-serve points against Fucsovics and looked similarly dominant against Schwartzman.
25-year-old American Taylor Fritz enjoyed a stellar 2022 campaign that catapulted him into the limelight. He won his maiden Masters 1000 title at Indian Wells and reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon.
The big-serving American has continued to excel in 2023. He helped guide Team USA to a United Cup triumph before a disappointing 2nd round defeat at the Aussie Open. But since then, he has been supremely consistent, reaching at least the quarterfinal stage of every event he has entered.
He won his 5th career title at Delray Beach (momentarily making him the 5th ranked player in the world). And he looked impressive in his title defense at Indian Welles- eventually going down to Jannik Sinner in an epic three-set quarterfinal duel.
He has looked immense this week, brushing aside Nava and the dangerous Shapovalov in straight sets. He has fallen at this stage of the tournament in each of the last two seasons and will be desperate to break that sequence.
He has fast become one of the most consistent players on tour and looks a decent bet to complete the ‘Sunshine Double’ this year.
Verdict: Fritz to win in three at 12/5
This will actually be the first career meeting between these two. These two should prove very evenly matched. Rune has the better movement of the two and will look to chase down everything. But I think this could boil down to who serves the best in these sweltering conditions.
Rune seems to have got his groove back. But Fritz still has the ability to dominate matches on his delivery (plus his movement isn’t too bad for such a tall guy). Fritz will also feed off fanatical home support and I think that could play a part in him sneaking by in three.
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2/13 | Tommy Paul 7/2
19-year-old Spanish sensation Carlos Alcaraz reclaimed the vaunted World No.1 ranking with his brilliant title run at Indian Wells. He was already the youngest ever Miami Open champion (winning this title last year).
Success at Indian Wells made him the youngest man to ever attain the ‘Sunshine Double’. The reigning US Open champion looks dead-set on staying at the top of the rankings of years to come. And that has rubbed a few the wrong way.
He was criticized far and wide for his celebrations during his opening demolition of Facundo Bagnis. The optics weren’t great: why run around fist-pumping when you are absolutely trouncing your much lower-ranked opponent? But people tend to forget he is only 19 years of age.
And that is exactly the kind of ruthlessness that sets the likes of Alcaraz and Swiatek apart from others. He wasn’t quite as dominant against Dusan Lajovic (the 2nd set would go to a tiebreak).
But that victory took his record for the year to an imperious 16-1 (the only loss coming to Cameron Norrie in the Rio final). He seems to have shaken the last remnants of that hamstring injury and he is looking like an absolute force of nature.
25-year-old American Tommy Paul has been one of the breakout stars of the 2023 campaign. He hinted at this type of progress last year (reaching the 4th round at Wimbledon and making two Masters 1000 quarterfinal runs).
But few would have envisaged him making such a dent this season. He clawed his way into the Aussie Open semi-final with two weeks of grit and determination. He then reached his maiden ATP 500 final in Acapulco (ultimately going down to De Minaur in three sets).
Coach Brad Stine has helped Paul adopt a more aggressive approach and attack the net a little more often. He survived a scare in his first-round against a dogged Marc-Andrea Husler.
But he consolidated with a far more commanding performance against the talented Spaniard Davidovich Fokina. He is going to have to severely raise the ante should he stand any chance of progressing against the exceptional Alcaraz.
Verdict: Alcaraz to win in straight sets at 12/25
Tommy Paul actually holds the head-to-head advantage, beating Alcaraz in last year’s Canadian Open (which is all the more impressive when you consider Alcaraz’s feats at the US Open). You can see why Paul is a good fit for Alcaraz.
His footwork is excellent, and he can counterpunch effectively. But Alcaraz seems to be on a different level at this moment in time. I think all the drama surrounding his celebrations will fuel a massive performance against a hometown favorite.
