Damien Kayat previews Cameron Norrie vs David Goffin and Grigor Dimitrov vs Roberto Carballes Baena in the selected round of 16 matches of the Lyon Open and Geneva Open, on the 24th of May 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Lyon Open and Geneva Open
Selected Round of 16 Matches – 24th May
Lyon Open
Cameron Norrie 11/5 | David Goffin 3/10
With Rafa Nadal withdrawing from this year’s French Open through injury, Cameron Norrie will lead the lefty charge at this year’s 2nd Slam. Norrie is actually shaping up as a real dark-horse contender for this year’s Roland Garros title.
He has emerged as one of the most consistent all-court players over the past few seasons (his recent highlights including a 2021 Indian Wells title and a 2022 Wimbledon semi-final). But he has also firmly established himself as a solid clay-court presence.
This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise when you see how much heavy topspin he generates on that forehand side. He has reached five clay-court finals over the past three years. He will actually be aiming to reach his 3rd consecutive Lyon final (losing to Tsitsipas in 2021 before winning the title last year).
He clearly has an affinity for these courts. He also picked up the biggest clay-court title of his career earlier this year, beating wunderkind Carlos Alcaraz in the Rio final. He has gone slightly quiet since a quarterfinal final run at Indian Wells (he is 4-5 in five events). He will be hoping that this event can reinvigorate his slightly flagging fortunes.
A former World No.2 and ATP Finals runner-up, David Goffin’s ranking has spiralled over the last few seasons. Injury and form have truly hamstrung the Belgian baseliner.
He has reached the quarterfinal in three of the four Slams but he never quite possessed the weaponry to consistently challenge the elite players. And the 32-year-old has really struggled to make any impression this year. He did win a Challenger event earlier this season and recently reached the semi-final of the Challenger Aix-En-Provence.
But he has struggled to make an impression on the tour proper, going 2-4 during the last four clay-court events. But the arch-baseliner did put up a real fight against Zverev in Rome, winning the first set and forcing an excellent comeback. But it’s hard to see Goffin surging back in this match.
Most of his best tennis has come on hard surfaces (particularly of the indoor variety). Neither of his wings are explosive and he likes to draw his power from the pace of the surface. I can’t see that double-handed backhand pinging around this surface too briskly.
Verdict: Norrie to win in straight-sets
Norrie leads the head-to-head rivalry 2-0. This included an absolutely titanic five-set battle at last year’s Wimbledon Championships. But Goffin had the tools to be competitive on that surface. He is going to struggle to flatten out his groundstrokes against Norrie’s heavy topspin.
Geneva Open
Grigor Dimitrov 2/5 | Roberto Carballes Baena 17/10
I think it’s fair to say that Grigor Dimitrov simply hasn’t lived up to the potential that saw him dubbed ‘Baby Fed’. I think the 33-year-old Bulgarian struggled to deal with the psychological impact of those expectations.
Still, the former World No.3 can’t be too dismayed with eight titles to his name. But clay hasn’t really played to his big-hitting strengths. He last reached a clay-court final in 2016. And the French Open is the only Slam in which he hasn’t reached a quarterfinal (reaching the semi-final stage at each of the other Slams).
But that doesn’t mean he can’t produce on his day: he is a three-time ATP 1000 semi-finalist on the sticky stuff. Dimitrov produced a massive upset by beating Casper Rudd at last year’s Monte-Carlo Masters. That shock semi-final run went a long way to resurrecting his ranking position.
And he is fresh off a three-set defeat to GOAT Novak Djokovic in Rome (a result which took his season to 12-11). He reached the Rotterdam semi-finals and Marseille quarterfinals and will dearly love a solid week ahead of this year’s French Open.
30-year-old Spaniard Roberto Carballes Baena is your stereotypical clay-court journeyman. A stunning 35 of his 37 Challenger and Futures finals have come on clay. That’s amazingly lobsided- even by clay-court specialist standards.
Both of his ATP titles have come on clay. That 2nd title came at the start of this year’s clay-court swing (he lifted the Grand Prix Hassan II trophy in April). He has also looked competitive in the recent ATP 1000 events, losing to Zverev in three-sets in Madrid prior to a decent round of 32 run in Rome.
He managed to crack the top 50 in the ATP rankings for the first time in his career this year and he will present Dimitrov with plenty of issues. He just picked up a workmanlike three-set win over Rincon and should now feel up to pace with the court-speed in Geneva.
Verdict: Carballes Baena to win in three
Dimitrov won their only previous encounter courtesy of a Carballes Baena retirement at the 2020 French Open. Dimitrov clearly has the edge in pure unbridled talent. But Carballes Baena is a streetfighter who chases down everything on these surfaces.
I can see him frustrating Dimitrov into committing plenty of errors. Still, this should be a close tussle. I just see the Spaniard harnessing all that clay-court nous and claiming victory.
