Damien Kayat previews Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe and Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner in the semi-finals of the Indian Wells Masters, on 18 March 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
WTA 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Gardens, Indian Wells, California (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Semi-finals – 18th March
Daniil Medvedev 24/100 | Frances Tiafoe 16/5
I was certain that the Medvedev roadshow was coming to an end after he went a set down against Alex Zverev. We even got the customary Medvedev temper tantrum, with the Russian vocalizing his displeasure at the speed of these courts.
But he rallied to pull off a spectacular come-from-behind win. Things were far more straightforward last time out, as he eased past Spaniard Davidovich Fokina in straight sets. That victory took his current winning streak to a staggering 18 matches.
I have been really impressed with the way the Russian has been able to adapt to conditions. You could see he was visibly destabilized in the matches against Zverev and Ivashka, frustrated with his inability to penetrate the court.
But he has utilized his brilliant athleticism to mitigate that lack of power, hanging in points and mixing up his play with startling variety. Aiming to win his 4th successive title, Medvedev is going to take some beating this week.
That being said, the Russian is fighting an ankle injury that could come into play here.
A real surprise package this week, Tiafoe had never previously made it past the 3rd round until this year. But the charismatic American has now won four successive straight-sets matches.
He was impressive against former Indian Wells champion Cameron Norrie, hitting an incredible 22 winners with just nine unforced errors. Tiafoe has served brilliantly and is one of the few players with the ability to generate his own pace from the back of these courts.
He will look to get into some protracted rallies, pushing the injury-affected Medvedev from side to side. A semi-finalist at last year’s US Open, Tiafoe has struggled to really make much of an impression in 2023.
This is his maiden ATP Masters semi-final and it could be the catalyst for Tiafoe’s entire season.
Verdict: Tiafoe to win at 16/5
Medvedev holds a commanding 4-0 head-to-head advantage over the American. He won their last meeting in straight sets at the 2021 Miami Open. I really think that Tiafoe could be worth a gander here. He seems to have tapped into the pace of the courts and will look to exploit Medvedev’s ankle issues.
Carlos Alcaraz 11/20 | Jannik Sinner 7/5
Carlos Alcaraz has roared back to relevance following an injury-affected start to the season. The reigning US Open champion unfortunately lost his World No.1 ranking after only holding the title for 20 weeks.
He won in Buenos Aires before disappointingly losing to Cameron Norrie in the final of the Rio Open. A semi-finalist here last year, Alcaraz has looked every bit a former World No.1 player this week. The Spanish teenager- hard to believe that- is yet to drop a set this week.
He has been devastating, balancing his monumental power with the deftest touch imaginable. He seems to be developing a head of steam and will be looking to complete the Sunshine set (he won last year’s Miami Open).
21-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner overcame a spirited Taylor Fritz fightback to advance to this year’s semi-finals. It shouldn’t have actually come as much of a surprise.
The versatile Sinner hadn’t dropped a set leading into the quarterfinal clash against the defending champion. A Miami Open finalist in 2021, Sinner has been on the cusp of greatness over the past two years (he reached three Grand Slam quarterfinals last year).
And his 2023 form has started to reflect his massive talent. After a disappointing Aussie stint, he won his first title of the year in Montpelier (actually becoming the first player to win a tour-level title in 2023 without dropping a set).
He would then lose to Daniil Medvedev in the Rotterdam final (this is his first event since losing that final). A finalist in the 2021 Miami Open, Sinner is clearly quite the fan of this ‘Sunshine Double’.
Verdict: Alcaraz to win in three at 14/5
These two NextGen superstars already have a wonderful rivalry building (they share the head-to-head spoils with two wins apiece). And their meeting at last year’s US Open was one for the ages, with Alcaraz emerging victorious in one of the best matches I have ever seen.
Sinner is the perfect foil to Alcaraz’s flamboyance and raw power. He plays a more measured game, controlling the percentages and using controlled aggression. And I think that will keep him in touching distance here. Still, I think the Spanish star will have that extra but I magic when it matters.
