Damien Kayat previews Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova and Maria Sakkari vs Karolina Pliskova in the Selected Round of 16 Matches of the Indian Wells Masters, on 14 March 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Gardens, Indian Wells, California (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches – 14th March
Aryna Sabalenka 4/6 vs Barbora Krejcikova 5/4
This could prove to be a riveting clash between two massively in-form players (who are now both Grand Slam champions). Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka started this year like a house on fire, winning the Adelaide 1 event before claiming her maiden Grand Slam title in Melbourne.
It was a watershed moment for a player who many thought lacked the personality to seal a Grand Slam title (me included). But her 13-match winning streak was brought to an abrupt end by none other than Barbora Krejcikova (more on that in a minute).
Still, she brought an imposing 13-1 record into this year’s event. And things couldn’t have gone smoother for Sabalenka thus far. She annihilated Rodina in a performance that typified her new ruthlessness. She then received a bye into this round after Tsurenko withdrew due to personal reasons.
But it says something that Sabalenka has never gone beyond this stage in this tournament. She doesn’t get full value for her power on these sticky surfaces. She has improved vastly on clay of late and it will be interesting to see if she can correct that poor Indian Wells record.
I have always felt that Krejcikova’s singles form has been diminished somewhat by her superlative doubles achievements. Last year saw her struggle at times to balance those two threads.
But the 2021 French Open champion did win two late-season titles that were a portent of things to come. She started this year in indifferent singles form. That all changed with her magnificent victory in Dubai.
She won her maiden WTA 1000 title, beating the top three players in the world in the process. This included a remarkable come-from-behind victory against Aryna Sabalenka. She actually conceded a dreaded bagel set in the opener. But she soon got to terms with Sabalenka and produced a roaring comeback.
She carried that Dubai form into her first match this week, crushing Dayana Yastremska in straight-sets. But she was sloppy against Wang last time put, serving ten double-faults in a three-set win. The Czech is now the one protecting an eight-match winning streak. Could Sabalenka return the favour and break it?
Verdict: Krejcikova to win in three at 11/4
Sabalenka actually led their head-to-head rivalry 2-0 prior to their meeting in Dubai. But everything seems to point towards the Czech here. The French Open champion loves slower surfaces that encourage patient point construction. I expect her to grind Sabalenka down over three sets.
Maria Sakkari 1/1 vs Karolina Pliskova 5/6
I still find it hard to fathom the fact that Maria Sakkari has only one title to her name. It baffles me. She has, however, proven to be a bastion of consistency, establishing herself in the world’s top 10 despite an apparent lack of killer instinct.
She has reached three semi-finals this year alone (at the United Cup, Linz and Doha). But last year’s beaten Indian Wells finalist hasn’t found things that easy this year. She has had to dig deep, coming back from a set down against both Shelby Rogers and Anhelina Kalinina.
That could boil down to rustiness following a two-week hiatus. Sakkari will be hoping to emulate her performance from last year and move her respectable season to the next level. Next up for her is the woman who absolutely destroyed her in Dubai: Karolina Pliskova.
Former World No.1 Karoline Pliskova has been working hard to reaffirm her place in the upper echelons of women’s tennis. She missed much of last season due to a recurring hand injury.
But she has shown some signs of life this year and has compiled a solid 15-5 record for the year. She reached the quarterfinals of the Aussie Open and also reached the final eight in Dubai. She has often run out of gas in events, clearly struggling to regain full fitness after such a prolonged absence.
She showed real grit to come from a set down in her first match against Kalinskaya. She looked far more assured last time out, polishing off the in-form Kudermetova in straight sets. You can never discount Pliskova. She has reached 32 finals in her career and possesses a serve that can dictate matches.
Verdict: Sakkari to win in three at 5/2
This has proven to be quite an intense rivalry (with the Czech leading 3-2). Pliskova has won their last two matches on hardcourts. She absolutely demolished an out of sorts Sakkari two weeks ago in Dubai.
But I think that a revitalized Sakkari isn’t about to be turned over like that again (especially on this surface). Sakkari has struggled to get out the blocks in both of her matches thus far. This makes me lean towards a three-set Sakkari win. Pliskova’s relatively poor movement is going to be majorly tested on this ultra-slow surface.
