Damien Kayat previews Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz and Daniil Medvedev vs Borna Coric in the Quarter-finals of the 2023 ATP Tour – Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 500
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Aviation Club Tennis Centre, Dubai, UAE (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals – 2nd March
Novak Djokovic 1/12 | Hubert Hurkacz 5/1
I knew that was going to happen. Djokovic scraped through his first match against lowly Tomas Machac. He was apparently still feeling the twinge of an apparent hamstring strain.
I think he was probably toying with his food, getting to grips with the speed of the courts for the more important matches ahead. Novak Djokovic extended his current winning streak to 19 with a ruthless display against the game Tallon Griekspoor.
He only faced one break point in the entire match. By contrast, the Serb managed to create 16 of his own (converting four of those). He recently became the man to spend the most weeks at number one in tennis history (378). He is aiming for his 6th Dubai title and will be unanimous favorite against anyone he meets.
Hubert Hurkacz is coming into this match with a bit of momentum on his side. The 2021 Miami Open champ and Wimbledon semi-finalist has struggled to consistently reach that level of excellence.
But he showed up again on the big stage last year (reaching the final of the Masters 1000 event in Canada). He also won his maiden ATP 500 title in Halle. He started this year with his deepest run yet at the Aussie Open- losing to Seb Korda in an epic duel 4th round duel.
He disappointed in Rotterdam before claiming his 6th career title in Marseille. It seemed that his Marseille victory bled into this week, as he needed to draw on every fiber of his being to get past the unheralded Shevchenko in his first match.
But he looked far more composed against Kotov, winning in straight sets and losing only three points on his first-serve (he wouldn’t face a break point). Hurkacz is going to have to serve somewhere near that level to push the elastic Djokovic. He has some pedigree here, reaching the semi-finals in last year’s edition.
Verdict: Djokovic to win in three at 11/4
The Serb has dominated Hurkacz in their head-to-head encounters. There have been moments when the big-serving Pole has threatened to break down the Serb. He won the first set in their 2021 Paris Masters match and won a set in their 2019 Wimbledon encounter.
But ironman Djokovic always manages to withstand the serving barrage and impose his style upon Hurkacz. He penetrates deeper in the court and has far better movement than the Hurkacz. I think there’s some value in the Pole serving himself at least a set.
Daniil Medvedev 2/13 | Borna Coric 15/4
Russian Daniil Medvedev is aiming to make it a pretty unique Russian threepeat in Dubai (Karatsev won in 2021 and Andrey Rublev won last year). He has shown no signs of fatigue following his back-to-back tournament wins in Rotterdam and Qatar.
He beat both of his early opponents by the exact same score: 6-4, 6-2. His last victory against the enigmatic Alexander Bublik was an absolute masterclass in serving dominance.
He won a ridiculous 29 of 30 first-serve points, not facing a single break-point in the match. That victory against Bublik took his current winning streak to 11 matches.
Borna Coric came back from the tennis ether towards the end of last year, becoming the lowest-ranked champion in Masters 1000 history by winning the Cincinnati Open.
Very much a defensive baseliner, the injury-plagued Coric really needs to be operating at optimum level to compete with some of these bigger hitters. It’s been a really strange start to the year for Coric.
He won two out of three United Cup matches before a dispiriting first-round exit at the Aussie Open. He then won both his Davis Cup matches before a quarterfinal run in Marseille. And he has had a fairly unique ride thus far in Dubai.
Dan Evans was forced to withdraw from their opening match. But Coric then had to withstand a serving barrage from Thanasi Kokkinakis, coming back from a set down to secure his place in the quarterfinals.
Verdict: Medvedev to win in straight-sets at 52/100
This is a fascinating rivalry. Coric has won three of their four Tour matches (not including their two NextGen Finals meetings in 2017). But they haven’t met since Medvedev beat Coric in the St Petersburg final. So, I don’t know how much stock you want to put into these figures.
I just can’t look past Medvedev’s ridiculous serving display against Bublik. Coric has looked lukewarm this year and will struggle to break down Medvedev’s more explosive game.
