Damien Kayat previews the 2023 China Open.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 500
China Open
National Tennis Centre, Beijing, China (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 29th September
Holger Rune (3) (21/20) vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (4/6)
It felt like Holger Rune was almost walking on water in the opening salvos of his ATP career, enjoying a virtually uninterrupted period of success over the last 18 months. This year he solidified his reputation as the new prince of clay with two brilliant runner-up showings in Monte-Carlo and Rome (not to mention the title win in Munich). He showed some real Grand Slam pedigree with back-to-back quarterfinal runs at the French Open and Wimbledon Championships.
But he is currently experiencing the first real sticky period in his fledgling career. He has been struggling to return to full fitness following a back injury he sustained during the North American hardcourt swing. He actually comes into this match on a four-match losing streak. His last outing was gruelling three-set defeat to Monterio in the Davis Cup Finals. Rune is perhaps feeling the pinch after enjoying so much success on arduous clay surfaces.
What a disappointing season it has been for Felix Auger-Aliassime. Long touted as a potential World No.1 in the making, the clean-hitting Canadian has only won a humdrum 14 of 29 matches this entire season. His semi-final run in Qatar was his best run of the entire campaign. He seems to have utterly lost his confidence as the likes of Alcaraz and Rune have shot past him. He is fresh off a poor first-round exit at the US Open and he needs a solid end to the season to repair his shattered confidence.
He will look to dictate play from the baseline, largely depending on his immense forehand to keep Rune hemmed in. But the variety of the Dane could cause the Canadian problems. Auger-Aliassime doesn’t like it when his rhythm is disrupted and Rune is a master of change-ups. He will throw in drop-shots and take the Canadian into uncomfortable positions.
The Verdict: Rune to win in three
These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece (Rune won their most recent meeting at last year’s Paris Masters). This could prove to be a very tight match. Rune is clawing his way back to full fitness while there’s a sense of desperation brewing for Auger-Aliassime. Ultimately, I feel that Rune’s variety of stroke will give him the edge here. Auger-Aliassime can be a tad one-dimensional and I think Rune will improve as the match progresses.
Daniil Medvedev (2) (23/100) vs Tommy Paul (11/4)
Russian hardcourt ace Daniil Medvedev will be making his first appearance since a comprehensive straight-sets defeat to Novak Djokovic in the US Open final. The Russian was exceptional in Flushing Meadows, brushing off poor performances in Canada and Cincinnati to reach his 4th Grand Slam final. His semi-final victory over Carlos Alcaraz was arguably the greatest individual performance of the entire tournament.
I’m sure that the Russian will be frustrated that he hasn’t added to that 2021 US Open crown. But he has still enjoyed a fantastic season, winning an incredible 55 of 67 matches (including five titles). He should feel refreshed after a timely break and he will take some beating on these surfaces.
American Tommy Paul has enjoyed a pretty decent season himself, rocketing into the top 15 in the world rankings courtesy of some splendid results. He reached his maiden Grand Slam semi-final with an unexpected surge at the Australian Open. He then went on to reach the biggest final of his career in Mexico (going down to ‘speed demon’ Alex de Minaur in the final). He then enjoyed an incredible breakthrough in Toronto, taking down Carlos Alcaraz en route to his maiden Masters 1000 semi-final.
He will feel really disappointed in the way he succumbed to compatriot Ben Shelton in the 4th round of the US Open. Still, he has continued to collect impressive results throughout the year and he cannot be underestimated. He is a ‘control’ player who likes to manoeuvre his opponent around the baseline. He has a versatile backhand and I like the way he incorporates slice into his game. He also isn’t averse to coming to the net. He will have to make use of all these skills if he wishes to succeed against Medvedev.
The Verdict: Medvedev to win in three sets
The Russian leads the head-to-head 1-0, overcoming Paul in four sets at the 2021 French Open. Paul has proven to be a tough competitor and his sheer variety could pose Medvedev some real problems. But I think the Russian will grow into the encounter and figure his opponent out. Paul looks to wear his opponents down through sheer volume and Medvedev retrieves it as well as anyone.
