Damien Kayat previews the 2023 China Open.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 500
China Open
National Tennis Centre, Beijing, China (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 28th September
Andrey Rublev (46/100) vs Cameron Norrie (6/4)
This has been a strange season for former ATP 500 titan Andrey Rublev. The Russian won the biggest title of his career- unbelievably on clay- at the Monte-Carlo Masters. But he hasn’t reached the quarterfinal stage of another Masters 1000 event. He was unable to break his Grand Slam quarterfinal hoodoo this year despite playing some fine tennis in the Majors (he has reached the quarterfinal stage in three of the year’s four Slams).
He also won a Swedish Open title and appeared in a further three ATP finals. It’s been a season of true highs and lows for the metronomic baseliner. He returned to action at the recent Laver Cup only to lose both his singles and doubles ties. Rublev will know that a strong showing in China will almost certainly seal his ATP Finals qualification. He should feel right at home on these brisk Beijing surfaces.
Brit Cameron Norrie has been in a bit of a rut after starting the year in really impressive fashion. The lefty reached finals in Buenos Aires and Auckland before claiming his only title of the season in Rio. Following a quarterfinal exit in Indian Wells he couldn’t win consecutive matches till Rome. Amazingly, he didn’t win a single match between Wimbledon and the US Open. He did manage to snap that four-match losing streak with a 3rd round run in New York. I think it’s fair to say that this was always in the post for Norrie.
The seemingly inexhaustible Brit has played a mountain of tennis over the past few years and it was bound to catch up with him. And his ultra-athletic style just needed a 5% drop-off in order to drastically affect his results. This was evident with his early exit at last week’s Zhuhai Championships. He just looks leggy.
The Verdict: Rublev to win in straight sets
These two share the head-to-head spoils at two wins each. Norrie did manage to win their last meeting at Indian Wells earlier this season. But those extremely slow conditions played perfectly into the Brit’s hands. Rublev will feel far more comfortable on these relatively quick surfaces. Norrie’s awkward lefty serve has given Rublev some difficulty in the past. But the Russian is in far better form and should emerge a comfy winner here.
Andy Murray (9/4) vs Alex De Minaur (2/7)
I think we may be approaching the end of Andy Murray’s brilliant career. The Scot has openly stated that he is giving thought to exiting the game should he remain ineffective against the upper echelon players. That’s pretty understandable when you consider that he was the man who most consistently disrupted the hegemony of the ‘Big Three’. I think his straightforward 2nd round Wimbledon defeat to Dimitrov was an eye-opener for the Brit.
He went down to Karatsev in last week’s Zhuhai Championships and he has been handed another tricky draw in Beijing. Should he beat De Minaur, he would likely face hardcourt machine Daniil Medvedev in the final 16. A champion here back in 2016, does Murray have it in him to make one last glorious stand in his career?
Andy Murray will be up against it as he comes up against ‘speed demon’ Alex De Minaur. The Aussie is currently enjoying a stellar campaign, winning 35 out of 53 matches thus far. He won the biggest title of his career at the Mexican Open while runner-up finishes at Los Cabos and Queens highlighted his all-court prowess. But it was his heroics in Toronto that really captured the imagination. He picked up the biggest result of his career with a maiden Masters 1000 final run in Toronto.
He actually managed to overcome hardcourt dynamo Daniil Medvedev in straight-sets during that run. The Russian would exact his revenge with a 4th round victory at the US Open. Still, De Minaur has enjoyed a remarkable campaign and he will be quietly nursing ambitions of making it to Turin.
The Verdict: De Minaur to win in straight sets
This was one of those stats that made me literally jump back in my chair a little. The Aussie leads the Scot 4-0 in their career head-to-head meetings. That includes two thrashings on this year’s tour. The truth is this: De Minaur is really a nightmare opponent for Murray at this stage of his career. He is a defensive beast who looks to make everything and loves extended baseline exchanges. Could a humbling defeat here signal the end of Murray’s stellar career?
