Damien Kayat previews Alexander Bublik vs Marcos Giron and Roman Safiullin vs Brandon Nakashima in Selected Round of 32 Matches of the Chengdu Open on the 20th of September 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Chengdu Open
Sichuan International Tennis Centre. Chengdu, China (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 20th September
Alexander Bublik 8/13 | Marcos Giron 23/20
5th seed Alexander Bublik is one of the most confusing oddities on the ATP Tour. The towering Kazakh has played five of his eight ATP finals on hardcourts. But he has been pretty dreadful on the harder surfaces this season. In fact, he started the season with four consecutive defeats.
But then the mercurial Bublik managed to reach the semi-finals in Marseille. There’s no rhyme or reason to his form. He then picked up the biggest success of his career by winning his maiden ATP 500 title in Halle.
He followed that up by reaching the 4th round of a Grand Slam for the first time at Wimbledon. And he hasn’t won a match since. He should theoretically be quite dominant on these surfaces: he serves big and has heavy groundstrokes.
But he tends to throw in too many off-pace shots and it allows opponents to finish off points quickly. He needs to sort out his mentality if he wishes to rise any further in the game. Still, he is returning to a venue where he reached a final back in 2019 and he cannot be underestimated.
Experienced 30-year-old American Marcos Giron is an intriguing joker in the pack this week. Giron- like many of his contemporaries- was an accomplished collegiate player, winning the NCAA Division I Tennis Championships in 2014.
But he has really struggled to find his feet at tour-level. He is a robust hardcourt operator but he just doesn’t possess the massive weapons necessary to be a persistent threat. However, he has managed to accumulate some decent results over the last 18 months, propelling him into the top 50 in the world earlier this year.
He reached his maiden ATP final in San Diego last year. And he reached four quarterfinals in a pretty consistent opening portion of this season. But his form has fallen off an absolute cliff in the last two months and he comes into this off the back of four successive defeats.
But he does have a knack of pulling off upsets in these ATP 250 events and Bublik is more than a little susceptible to one of those.
Verdict: Bublik to win in three
Giron actually leads Bublik 2-1 in the head-to-head stakes, winning their last two matches on clay. But it was the Kazakh who won their only previous hardcourt encounter, outlasting the American in a true slugfest at the 2021 Cincinnati Open.
So, there’s enough evidence here to support a Giron upset. I just can’t bring myself to make that leap. Giron is in awful form and Bublik is a former finalist here. Bublik in three seems a sensible option.
Roman Safiullin 11/10 | Brandon Nakashima 5/8
26-year-old Russian Roman Safiullin has enjoyed an incremental rise up the rankings over the past two seasons. He really came to the fore at last year’s ATP Cup, leading Russia to the semi-finals after winning two singles and three doubles matches alongside Daniil Medvedev.
He would then go on to reach tour-level semi-finals in Marseille and Tel Aviv. 2023 has been far less consistent for the swift baseliner. But who needs consistency when you can reach a Grand Slam quarterfinal at the first time of asking?
He became only the 12th man to reach the quarterfinals on his Wimbledon main draw debut. He is fresh off a devastating 2nd round exit at the US Open (he led 14th seed Tommy Paul by two sets before a terrible collapse). He is a hard-working player who relies on relentless persistence and selective aggression.
What on earth has happened to Brandon Nakashima this season? He reached two ATP Finals in 2021 before enjoying a really successful 2022 campaign.
He won his maiden title at last year’s San Diego Open and he also reached the 4th round of a Slam for the first time in his career. It all culminated in him winning the 2022 NextGen Finals. But this season has been pretty much a disaster for the indefatigable baseliner.
He is a dismal 8-20 for the season (all the poorer considering he reached the semi-finals in Lyon). It’s like he hit a brick wall when players figured out that he doesn’t possess any potent weapon.
He did show some glimpses of form at Winston-Salem, beating Kubler and Fils before losing to veteran Gasquet in the final 16. He desperately needs something to reinvigorate a rapidly sagging career.
Verdict: Safiullin to win in three
This will be the first career meeting these two. This is going to probably be an arduous encounter, with neither player possessing the one weapon that will dictate proceedings. But I ultimately think the Russian has what it takes to outlast the struggling American.
