Damien Kayat previews Carlos Alcaraz vs Borna Coric and Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova in the Selected quarterfinal and semi-final matches of the Madrid Open on 5 May 2023.
2023 WTA 1000/ ATP 1000 Tour
Madrid Open
La Caja Magica (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Semi-final
Matches – 5 May
Carlos Alcaraz 1/20 | Borna Coric 13/2
Can anyone stop Carlos Alcaraz in Madrid? Or, can anyone stop him anywhere? The Spanish shot-making virtuoso has truly returned to his best following the hamstring issues that saw him miss the Aussie Open. His straight-sets win over Karen Khachanov took his 2023 record to an awe-inspiring 27-2. And he showed grit in that match, coming back from 5-2 down in the 2nd set to win the final five games of the match.
The reigning Madrid champion extended his unbeaten run here and he will be looking to make it back-to-back clay-court titles after victory in Barcelona. He truly has all the weapons to usurp Nadal as the world’s premier clay-court player. His victory over Khachanov took his career clay-court record to an imposing 56-12.
He already thrashed Alex Zverev in a repeat of last year’s final (crushing the German 6-1, 6-2 in their round of 16 match). His serve is a rocket and he is forcing players to find ridiculous angles in order to hit clean winners.
17th seeded Croatian Borna Coric produced a workmanlike display to end the dream run of lucky loser Daniel Altmaier. 26-year-old Coric is essentially the Jelena Ostapenko of the men’s tour, popping up with amazing results out of seemingly nowhere.
The 2018 Shanghai Masters finalist won his maiden ATP 1000 title in Cincinnati last season. He did this despite not being seeded for the tournament. And the defensive baseliner came was in absolutely dreadful form, losing five consecutive matches leading into this year’s Madrid Open. But Coric has once again showcased his innate ability to surprise on the biggest stage. He saw off Gaston and Hurkacz without much fuss.
But he faced an uphill struggle against hometown hero Davidovich Fokina, outdueling the Spaniard in three tight sets. Altmaier probably would have fancied his chances following that ordeal. But the Croatian upped his game significantly for the quarter, winning a staggering 90% of his first-serve points. He will need to serve at a similar level should he stand any chance of stopping the Alcaraz juggernaut.
The Verdict: Alcaraz to win in straight sets
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Coric simply doesn’t possess the weapons to harm Alcaraz. He is an excellent defensive player who can exploit other player’s weaknesses.
But I just don’t see enough weaknesses in Alcaraz’s game. He basically needs the Spaniard to play at a sub-par level to be competitive here.
Iga Swiatek 1/20| Veronika Kudermetova 13/2
If you thought Alcaraz had it tough; what odds do you give Veronika Kudermetova here? Two-time French Open champ Iga Swiatek is steamrolling players again and seems to have ironed out some of her recent kinks. She just blasted Petra Martic off the court in 70 minutes, humiliating the Czech with a bagel in the first-set.
That victory took Swiatek to eight consecutive clay-court victories (including her recent Stuttgart title defense). The World No.1 has a 2023 record of 24-4. She obviously had to get over the disappointment of that 4th round Aussie Open loss. But the Pole has finally started to look her all-conquering self once again. Her footwork looks impeccable and she seems to have found fluidity on both wings.
Her victory over Martic took her career clay-court record to a stupefying 52-7. I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to know that she will be a massive favorite here.
26-year-old Russian Veronika Kudermetova has been a real surprise package in Madrid. She came into this event with the mental baggage of four consecutive defeats. That included first-round clay-court exits in Charleston and Stuttgart.
But there is something deliciously mercurial about the big-serving Russian. This will be he 3rd semi-final of the year (following final-four runs in Adelaide and Qatar). She burst into the WTA top 10 last year courtesy of three final appearances. Her powerful, overly aggressive style seems to result in a lot of unpredictable results. This will be her first WTA 1000 semi-final and it should come as no surprise that it came on clay. She won her maiden WTA title at the 2021 Charleston Open and she reached the quarters at the French Open last year.
She just beat the metronomic Jessica Pegula in three sets (her 4th consecutive three-set win). Could she top that result with what would be one of the shocks of the season?
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in three
Swiatek has comfortably won all three of their previous matches. And the Pole absolutely crushed the Russian earlier this year (conceding just one game in their Qatar semi-final).
I think there could be some value in the Russian pinching a set due to her serve. But I fully expect the Pole to reach her 4th final of the year. I’m just hoping that Kudermetova could find some outrageous serving numbers for one set.
