There are plenty of narratives around the 2022 edition of the Women’s US Open- Serena Williams is set to retire from the sport, Iga Swiatek’s form has fallen off a cliff and Emma Radacanu appears to be getting back to her best. Damien Kayat previews.
Speaking purely from a spectator’s perspective: I think I prefer the current state of women’s tennis to that of the men. I’m going to write a sweeping preview of the men’s event, pointing out which players have the best chance of usurping Novak and Rafa (in the event that Djokovic is allowed to play).
But in the hypothetical event of both legends participating, there is an 85% chance that one of them will have another Grand Slam title come the 6th of September. And you can probably narrow down the list of plausible contenders to around six names.
The women’s draw is the polar opposite. And I love it for that. The men’s draw is like Harry Potter (you essentially know who is going to make it to the end). The women’s draw is more like Game of Thrones: your favourite character could be eliminated at any moment.
Just look at the last major precursor in Cincinnati. Caroline Garcia came from nowhere to beat fellow unseeded player Petra Kvitova. What on earth am I supposed to make of that?
This was supposed to be the easiest article in the world to write. World No.1 Iga Swiatek’s world domination looked all but assured a few months back. She had filled the void left by Ashleigh Barty’s shock retirement with ruthless certainty, going on an incredible 37-match winning streak that left the tennis community speechless.
But the Pole has looked vulnerable lately and I think the entire chasing pack can smell blood in the water.
But there are literally around 20 players you can make a solid case for this week. Seeds are almost redundant in a draw this insane. Could we have a repeat of last year, with two completely unfancied opponents going head-to-head in the final?
It will be interesting to see how Emma Radacanu deals with the pressure of being a defending champ. Perhaps most importantly, this marks the final event in the storied career of Serena Williams. Could the American conjure up one final magical moment to leave the rambunctious New York crowd speechless (if that’s even possible)?
This promises to be a fascinating fortnight and I can’t wait for it to start.
Past Finals
2021: Emma Radacanu bt Leylah Fernandez (6-4, 6-3)
2020: Naomi Osaka bt Victoria Azarenka (1-6, 6-3, 6-3)
2019: Bianca Andreescu bt Serena Williams (6-3, 7-5)
2018: Naomi Osaka bt Serena Williams (6-2, 6-4)
2017: Sloane Stephens bt Madison Keys (6-3, 6-0)
The Big Narratives- Serena Williams, Iga Swiatek and Emma Radacanu
Serena Williams: 50/1
What more is there to say about Serena Williams? The dominant figure in women’s tennis for almost two decades, Williams’ contribution to the sport will never be in doubt.
After her performance in Cincinnati, I can’t really see her equalling Margaret Court’s record of 24 Grand Slams. But wouldn’t it be just like Serena to shock the world and go out in style?
She won her last Grand Slam when she was around nine weeks pregnant. She just has that ability to defy expectations. I think she would also love a grand send-off to offset the lingering memories of Osaka-gate in 2018.
A heroic fourth-round run could represent a decent swansong for the greatest player in the history of women’s tennis.
Iga Swiatek: 3/1
Iga Swiatek is coming into this year’s US Open in a bit of a weird headspace. Just the other day she seemed as indestructible as John Wick. Her 37-match winning streak was the longest this century.
There were times when you couldn’t comprehend her losing a tennis match. But there has been a drastic change of momentum for the Pole since her shock third-round defeat at Wimbledon.
She has lost four matches since Wimbledon and is looking slightly ragged out there. She won three WTA 1000 events on hardcourts this year alone. But she seems to be struggling on these slightly faster US Open Swing surfaces.
The World No.1 may thrive with slightly less expectations this year. But I think she could do with a few early straight-sets victories.
Emma Radacanu 14/1
Emma Radacanu is perhaps the hardest mainstream narrative to gauge. Her success last year was truly unheralded (she became the first qualifier to win a Grand Slam title in the Open Era).
The teenager attracted a slew of lucrative contracts and was positioned to be the next dominant force in the game. But she has lost 19 of her 34 matches since that US Open final.
She is constantly being crucified in the media as the new Kournikova (a player too interested in off-court glitz and glamour). But then she rocked up in Cincinnati and knocked out two former World Number 1’s in less than 24 hours.
She annihilated Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka before succumbing to Pegula in the quarterfinals. Fun fact: she only committed one unforced error in 90 points against Williams.
Can she harness that type of tennis for another two-week stint at glory? Or will the pressure prove a bit too much for her? I personally can’t see her making the second week.
She hasn’t reached one semi-final since winning this title. There are too many dangerous players in this draw for her to survive.
The Best Top Ten Picks- Simona Halep and Jessica Pegula
Simona Halep: 7/1
As I alluded to earlier, it’s perhaps best not to get too enamoured with seedings this year. Fourth seed Paula Badosa hasn’t gone beyond the fourth round on any hardcourt event this year. And ninth seed Garbine Muguruza has a woeful 9-14 win-loss record for 2022. But there are two players who stand out for me in this range.
Two-time Grand Slam champion Simona Halep looks like a woman on a mission. Her powers looked on the wane after a disappointing 2021 campaign. But she looks reinvigorated by her burgeoning partnership with Patrick Mouratoglou.
She is 39-10 for the year, claiming the recent WTA 1000 championship in Toronto. She also reached semi-finals in Dubai, Indian Wells and Wimbledon.
A semi-finalist here in 2015, I think Halep could take advantage of the fragmented status of women’s tennis to claim her third Grand Slam title. It would also be fitting if Halep won under the tutelage of Mouratoglou (a key figure in the glory years of Queen Serena).
Jessica Pegula: 25/1
Another one to watch out for is American Jessica Pegula. She has been one of the standout players on tour this year (especially on hardcourts). She reached the semi-finals in Miami and Toronto.
She then narrowly missed out on a final-four berth in Cincinnati last week. There is little doubting her suitability for North-American hardcourts. She has also grown as a Grand Slam player, reaching the quarterfinals at this year’s Aussie and French Opens.
The American is a no-nonsense hardcourt aficionado with relentless power on both wings. Like Ons Jabuer, Pegula is a late bloomer who has toiled for 11 years on tour. This could be her time to shine.
Mid-Range Picks- Coco Gauff and Madison Keys
Coco Gauff: 11/1
I think there are a lot of people getting a little bit high off the Caroline Garcia hype at present. She has probably been one of the most consistent players on the tour since June, culminating in her third WTA 1000 title in Cincinnati. But I think it’s quite easy to swerve her.
I tend to avoid players in the women’s draw who are getting too much pre-tournament hype. Also, Garcia has never made it beyond the third round in New York. I think two homegrown options make far better sense in this range.
Doesn’t it feel like Coco Gauff has been on the tour for a decade? That impression is probably bolstered by the remarkable composure she shows for someone her age.
The obvious highlight of her year was that fantastic run to the Roland Garros final. But she has remained one of the more consistent players on tour, currently sitting fifth on the Porsche Race to the WTA Finals.
She is yet to impress herself upon this particular championship. But I think she will go slightly under-the-radar this week with all the hullabaloo surrounding Williams’ last dance.
Madison Keys: 25/1
Madison Keys has been trending magnificently this year. The American has enjoyed a career renaissance in 2022, winning her sixth title in Adelaide and picking up some massive results along the way.
The Floridian has a wonderful knack of bringing her A-game to the Grand Slam stage. She reached her fifth career Grand Slam semi-final at this year’s Aussie Open. And her best result on the big stage came with that brilliant run to the 2017 US Open final.
She is fresh off an excellent run in Cincinnati, taking down the likes of Swiatek and Rybakina en route to a semi-final finish. She is loving these superfast surfaces and she should enjoy some raucous support in New York. Her combination of Grand Slam form and current form is pretty irresistible.
Long Range Shots- Shelby Rogers and Zheng Qinwen
Shelby Rogers: 50/1
I think you can see a bit of an American theme brewing in my picks this year. They just have a wealth of dynamic hardcourt specialists at their disposal.
29-year-old Shelby Rogers has sneakily edged her way into the world’s top 30 for the first time in her career. This was courtesy of a run to the San Jose final three weeks back.
That was incredibly her first WTA final in six years! She beat the likes of Andreescu, Sakkari and Anisimova en route to that final. That’s rather an impressive list of vanquished foes.
She reached the quarterfinals here in 2020 and she has developed a habit of pulling off huge upsets in New York. She beat World No.1 Ashleigh Barty last year when the Aussie looked frankly unbeatable. I think a deep run could be on the cards for Rogers this year.
Qinwen Zheng: 50/1
My final longshot this year is the unseeded Chinese teenager Zheng Qinwen. At 19, she is already ranked 40th in the world and has won 30 of her 44 matches this year.
She gave eventual Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina a scare in their third-round match at SW19. She is also fresh off a really promising quarterfinal run in Toronto.
She eventually lost to Karolina Pliskova in a nail-biting three-set encounter. She was also the only player to take a set off Swiatek at Roland Garros. She is certainly one to watch this year.
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