The seedings are in for the men’s draw of the 2022 US Open. Damien Kayat delves into the draw and gives his predictions for each quarter, as well as a final verdict.
So, it’s decided then. Novak Djokovic will not be able to compete in this year’s US Open due to his refusal to get vaccinated for Covid. That renders him ineligible to enter the US under current guidelines.
It’s fairly ironic that he is banned this year after competing in 2020 and 2021 (in the height of the Covid pandemic). But at the same time, it’s hard to feel too sympathetic for a man who thinks that the rules shouldn’t apply to him.
Djokovic’s absence should open the door for a certain Spanish bulldog to claim his 23rd Grand Slam title. Rafa will actually be competing in New York for the first time since winning his 4th title in 2019.
But you do have to wonder about the headspace of the Spanish superstar. His wife is reportedly undergoing surgery soon due to pregnancy complications. I don’t care how much of a consummate professional you are, that must affect your preparations.
The absence of Djokovic and Alex Zverev (through injury) does open up the draw to other would-be contenders. Defending champion Danil Medvedev will be looking for redemption this fortnight. He needs to exorcise the memories of the tantrum that killed his Aussie Open chances.
Stefanos Tsitsipas comes into this event with decent momentum while Carlos Alcaraz Garfia is looking to rediscover his electrifying early season form.
As I said in my women’s preview, there is something slightly more predictable about the men’s draw. But the absence of Djokovic has certainly thrown a major spanner in the works. This could open the door to the NextGen hopefuls that just haven’t had a sniff over the past few years.
1st Quarter
Top Seeds: Danil Medvedev (1) 9/4, Felix Auger Aliassime (6) 25/1
World No.1 Danil Medvedev just has to remind himself that he is the defending champion this week. It has been a challenging year for the Russian and you still get the impression that he is haunted by the events in Melbourne earlier this year.
He is 34-12 for the season but he has started to pick up some steam during his favoured North-American hardcourt swing. He won his first title of the year at the Los Cabos Open and he is fresh off a creditable semi-final run in Cincinnati. But the number one seed will have to negotiate a really tricky draw this year.
19-year-old Blake Shelton- the 2022 NCAA Division I champion- could be his potential 3rd round opponent. But it’s his potential 4th round opponent Nick Kyrgios that will be keeping the Russian up at night.
The Wimbledon finalist beat Medvedev in Canada and will be many people’s dark-horse for this year’s US Open title. I’m not so sure. I truly admire his Wimbledon odyssey. But I just don’t think that the enigmatic Aussie is reliable enough to produce a 2nd consecutive Grand Slam charge. I think that Medvedev’s biggest issues may come from the bottom half of this draw.
And I’m not necessarily talking about 6th seed Felix Auger Aliassime. A semi-finalist last year, the Canadian has been consistently underwhelming throughout this entire campaign. I’m thinking more along the lines of Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard is a former two-time US Open semi-finalist. Furthermore, he just won his maiden Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open. Carreno Busta is a physical juggernaut who can withstand the rigours of two weeks in New York. I think he could be the one to watch in the bottom half of the draw.
Likely Quarterfinalists: Danil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno Busta
2nd Quarter
Top Seeds: Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) 11/1, Casper Rudd (5) 50/1
Stefanos is one of the guys who could benefit the most from the absence of Djokovic and Zverev. The five-time Grand Slam semi-finalist arrives in New York off the back of an excellent run to the Cincinnati final.
He has been extremely consistent this season and seems to be trending in the right direction. But questions linger about his ability to seal the deal at Grand Slam level.
I personally have my doubts about Tsitsipas in these physically exhaustive conditions. He is yet to go beyond the 3rd round here in five attempts. He has a fairly routine path through to the 4th round. But Matteo Berrettini could be a huge stumbling block for the Greek star.
Sure, Berrettini is coming off back-to-back first round losses in Canada and Cincinnati. But the big-serving Italian reached the semi-finals here in 2019 and the quarterfinals last year.
He has also evolved as a Grand Slam player, reaching the Wimbledon final last year before a semi-final showing at this year’s Aussie Open. His huge serve and forehand could prove too devastating for Tsitsipas (who just got overpowered by Coric in Cincinnati).
I think that another big server- Taylor Fritz- should hold sway in the bottom half of this draw. There’s little doubt that 5th seed Casper Rudd has evolved on faster surfaces.
Nominally a clay-court specialist, Rudd made huge headway by reaching the final in Miami earlier this year. He backed that up with a semi-final showing in Canada a few weeks back.
But I think the French Open finalist could struggle on these extremely quick surfaces. American Taylor Fritz will receive fanatical support and his big-serving game should suit this challenge perfectly. He won at Indian Wells earlier this season and he reached his maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon. There’s something special brewing for this dynamic American youngster. Could this be another Andy Roddick circa 2003.
Sidenote: I don’t see Andy Murray lasting too long in these demanding conditions. I wonder if this could be Murray’s final tilt at a 2nd New York crown.
Likely Quarterfinalists: Matteo Berrettini and Taylor Fritz
3rd Quarter
Top Seeds: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (3) 5/1. Hubert Hurkacz (8) 28/1
This is the quarter of the draw that I think has the best chance of going to seed. Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has certainly tapered off somewhat since his blistering start to the campaign.
He won Masters 1000 titles in Miami and Madrid. More crucially, he reached back-to-back finals during the ‘Sunshine Double’. But his form tailed off just when he was expected to launch title bids at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
I think he will benefit from lowered expectations this year. He has also developed physically and may be able to withstand the vagaries of an arduous two-week event (remember he had to withdraw from last year’s quarterfinal due to a leg injury).
Borna Coric and Marin Cilic are his likely 3rd and 4th round opponents. Despite Coric’s Cincinnati success, I still think the Spaniard has the power to dominant him. And I think it will be a tough ask to expect 2014 US Open champ to hang in there at his late stage of the season. Cilic has only gone beyond the 4th round here once since reaching the 2015 semi-finals.
Hubert Hurkacz- who reached the semi-final at Wimbledon last year- has enjoyed some fantastic results on hard surfaces this season. He reached the semi-finals in Miami and recently reached his 2nd Masters 1000 final in Canada. And he has a delicious set of potential opening matches. He plays Otte in the first match before likely clashes with Ivashka, Musetti and Sinner. Obviously, Sinner is the slightly concerning link in that chain.
But the Italian is yet to really make his mark on the Grand Slam stage. Furthermore, the Pole has actually beaten Sinner in each of their two outdoor hardcourt matches. That included a routine victory for Hurkacz in last year’s Miami Open final.
Likely Quarterfinalists: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia and Hubert Hurkacz
4th Quarter
Top Seeds: Rafa Nadal (2) 4/1, Cameron Norrie (7) 28/1
I’m not even going to spend too much time in this portion of the draw. Rafa Nadal has a dream draw in this quarter. Honestly, I like Cameron Norrie and I have been impressed by the way in which he has added power to his more defensive game.
But there is only room for one lefty baseliner in this section. Rafa should motor his way through a section where Kecmanovic may provide him with his sternest test. I think Norrie will do well to get past Rublev in their possible round of 16 match. Rublev has largely disappointed on the biggest stage. But he is still a two-time US Open quarterfinalist and one of the premier hardcourt players in the world.
Likely Quarterfinalists: Rafa Nadal and Andrey Rublev
Gaming it Out: US Open
So, I’m going to take my predictions and try narrow the results down until we find this year’s US Open Champ.
Quarterfinals:US Open
- Medvedev to beat Carreno Busta
- Fritz to beat Berrettini
- Hurkacz to beat Alcaraz Garfia
- Nadal to best Rublev
Semi-final: US Open
- Medvedev to beat Fritz
- Nadal to beat Hurkack
Final: US Open
Medvedev to beat Nadal
Summation: US Open
I have the feeling that Medvedev is out to prove his doubters wrong this week. I don’t really think he has anything to prove. Unlike the likes of Tsitsipas and Zverev: Medvedev already has that all-important Grand Slam title.
These hardcourts are much more to his liking than those in Australia. They are faster and will allow him to flatten out his groundstrokes in a possible duel with Nadal. I think that Nadal should sail serenely through to the final.
I think that Alcaraz Garfia’s stamina may let him down in the latter stages of the tournament (allowing Hurkacz to possibly pounce).
But I think it is Taylor Fritz- egged on by the most rambunctious crowd in world tennis- who may end up leaving the biggest impression at this year’s Championships. Or I could be completely and utterly wrong. Either way it’s fine. I can be super impressed with myself or enter self-deprecation mode.
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