OUTRIGHT PREVIEW: 2023 Australian Open – Women

2023 WTA Tour
111th Australian Open
Women’s Preview
Melbourne Park, Australia (Hard- Greenset)
16th-29th January

There is almost a surreal feeling about the Women’s Aussie Open this year. On one hand, everything is somewhat back to normal. Covid regulations have vastly diminished for the first time in three years.

But the retirements of Grand Slam demigoddess Serena Williams and defending champion Ashleigh Barty contributes to a slightly strange feeling. Add Naomi Osaka’s pregnancy announcement into the mix and you get one thing: a likely first-time winner (more on that later).

Does that make it a procession for reigning World No.1 Iga Swiatek? The Pole dominated 2022 in almost unprecedented fashion, decimating opponents with her relentless aggression and determination.

But surely that kind of year will be impossible to replicate. If not Swaitek, then who? There is a smorgasbord of women aiming to capitalize on any mistake by the high-flying Pole. And it will be my job to parse through the likely- and less likely- candidates.

Past Winners

2022: Ashleigh Barty bt Danielle Collins (6-3, 7-6)
2021: Naomi Osaka bt Jennifer Brady (6-4, 6-3)
2020: Sofia Kenin bt Garbine Muguruza (4-6, 6-2, 6-2)
2019: Naomi Osaka bt Petra Kvitova (7-6, 5-7, 6-4)
2018: Caroline Wozniacki bt Simona Halep (7-6, 3-6, 6-4)

The Favourite- Iga Swiatek 11/5

What more is there to say about Swiatek? A two-time Grand Slam champion last year, the Pole reached the semi-finals here in 2022 and looks primed to make it four career Grand Slam titles.

John McEnroe rather glibly implied that Ashleigh Barty’s retirement robbed Swiatek of a true rival. And I can see what he’s getting at. But you still have to go out there and beat a plethora of amazingly talented women, week-in, week-out.

Granted, Swiatek’s performances waned slightly in the latter half of the year. But she still won the US Open. I think she may actually benefit from a humbling defeat to Jessica Pegula in the United Cup.

It has arguably dampened expectations and could allow her to operate more freely this week. I really think she has what it takes to win her fourth Slam (and therefore set up a chance at a career Slam at Wimbledon).

Top 10 Players To (Possibly) Avoid

Now this is the part of the predictions where you’re always opening yourself to a banana peel or two. Which top ten players would I fancy and which would I look to avoid?

Ons Jabeur 14/1

Ons Jabeur enjoyed an incredible 2022 and I wouldn’t be surprised if she fares well this fortnight. She has turned into an all-court dynamo and she reached the semis in Adelaide last week.

I just think the two-time Grand Slam finalist may need a bit more tennis to find her groove. She was beaten in the first round here last year and I’m tempted to swerve her.

Aryna Sabalenka 7/1

And I know that both Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are receiving plenty of buzz.

Sabalenka has reached three Grand Slam semi-finals in the last two years and made it all the way to the WTA Finals Championship match last year.

She is also fresh off a commanding title victory in Adelaide. But you always have to take tension into account with Sabalenka. I’m sure a match will come along where that fragile service will come into question.

Plus, she has never gone beyond the fourth round here. So, I think I’m happy to swerve the Belarusian.

Coco Gauff 14/1

And I think I harbour similar doubts about the wonderfully talented Coco Gauff (who is remarkably still just 18 years of age).

She had an excellent 2022, reaching her maiden Grand Slam final in Paris and making it all the way to the WTA Finals. But she actually failed to register a title all year.

And her two biggest matches of the year- the Paris final against Swiatek and the New York quarterfinal against Garcia- turned out to be one-sided demolitions.

I think she is still best suited to slightly slower surfaces. She sometimes lacks aggression and likes to construct rallies. I think these faster surfaces might limit her options.

My Top 10 Contenders

Jessica Pegula 12/1

Jessica Pegula comes into the Australian Open with something greater than momentum: a comprehensive victory over Iga Swiatek.

She was aggression personified against the Pole in the United Cup, taking balls on the rise and giving Swiatek a taste of her own medicine. Pegula has slowly started to become a real fixture in Slams, reaching the quarterfinal stage in four of her last five outings.

This included a quarterfinal defeat to Ashleigh Barty last year. She won her maiden WTA 1000 title towards the end of last year in Guadalajara, highlighting just how far she has come.

I think her aggressive, flat hitting style should work perfectly on these surfaces. Also, Americans have been utterly brilliant in this event of late (more on that a little later).

Caroline Garcia 11/1

I’m really liking the look of Caroline Garcia. She looked a different player during the US Open series, emerging as arguably Swiatek’s most dangerous foe.

She won in Cincinnati before a semi-final run at Flushing Meadows. The Frenchwoman closed out the year in majestic style, capturing the WTA Finals title and cementing her reputation as one of the most dangerous hardcourt players in world tennis.

Her aggression and sheer power were revelatory in her success and it could prove decisive this fortnight. She will stand inside the baseline and look to dictate points on her opponent’s serve.

My Dark Horse Picks

Danielle Collins 28/1

The last three Aussie Open finals have featured an American. It encapsulates how their generally flatter hitting style is well tailored to this surface.

And Danielle Collins was the last, losing to Ashleigh Barty in last year’s championship match. The hard-hitting American has real pedigree in this event, also reaching the semi-finals in 2019.

The 27-year-old had a fairly ordinary end to the year (though a fourth-round run at the US Open highlighted her ability in Slams). Collins’ hell-for-leather approach to shot-making makes her a somewhat difficult player to predict.

Currently in the quarterfinal stage of the Adelaide II event, Collins looks to be starting the year in positive fashion and could contend again.

Liudmila Samsonova 40/1

I wouldn’t get too hung up on Liumila Samsonova’s current form (she has lost two of three matches this year). We all know that these events are essentially glorified training sessions.

But just look at what the big-serving, big-hitting Russian achieved in and around last year’s US Open. She enjoyed a spectacular period, winning three titles in four events.

This included Washington and Tokyo Open titles. She won 18 out of 19 matches in this period (winning 16 of those matches in straight sets).

She is just one of those opponents that the top players will be itching to avoid towards the end of the opening week.

My Longshot Picks

Victoria Azarenka 50/1

I alluded to the fact that we are very likely going to see a first-time victor this year. Or are we? Sure, it has been ten years since Victoria Azarenka won the second of her back-to-back Aussie Open titles.

And it’s also fair to say that Azarenka- now 33 years of age- isn’t quite the player she once was (protracted custody battles saw to that). But history has taught us that the Belarusian has the capacity to pull off big results out of seemingly nowhere (she reached the US Open final in 2020 before reaching the Indian Wells final in 2021).

She reached the fourth round here last year before a humdrum campaign. She never played any grass-court tennis due to Wimbledon’s Belarusian ban.

But she did reach a WTA 1000 semi-final at Guadalajara at the end of the year. She is still a dangerous competitor at this level.

Amanda Anisimova 66/1

I’m opting for another American in the form of 21-year-old Amanda Anisimova. She hits powerfully and she hits it flat (which should be a recipe for success here).

Sure, she doesn’t come into this match in great form, losing two of her three matches this year. But just look at how consistent she was throughout 2022.

She ultimately compiled an 11-4 record for the year in Grand Slam tennis. This included a second Aussie Open fourth-round appearance. A broken toe really scuppered her momentum during the US Open Series.

But I just have a feeling that her style could cause some surprises this week.