We take a look at the two intriguing Hamburg European Open clashes between Andrey Rublev and Alexander Bublik as well as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Jozef Kovalik.
Round of 32 – Hamburg European Open
Andrey Rublev (2) (1/7) vs Alexander Bublik (15/4)
It’s been a bizarre year for Russian ATP 500 specialist Andrey Rublev. He has an impressive 29-9 win-loss record for the year. This has included three titles (Marseille, Dubai and Belgrade).
But the Russian is still yet to crack a semi-final berth in a Grand Slam. He has also struggled to replicate his best form in the premier events this year (aside from a semi-final showing at Indian Wells). He is starting to look suspiciously like the most elite flat-track bully in men’s tennis. His season was obviously affected by Wimbledon’s decision to ban Russian athletes.
He chose last week’s Swedish Open as the site of his return to tennis. It was going swimmingly until he ran into clay-court sensation Sebastian Baez. Still, Rublev’s clay-court tennis has improved dramatically over the last few years (he has won 11 out of 15 matches on this surface this year).
His mammoth forehand allows him to hit through the slower conditions. He won the title here in 2020 and will be looking to further cement his status as the ATP 500 king.
The absolutely chaotic season of Alexander Bublik has been a thing to behold. His current win-loss record for the season stands at a humdrum 22-18. But that tends to mask some of his achievements. The massive Kazakh is fresh off his 2nd ATP Final of the year at Newport (Bublik won his maiden ATP title earlier this year in Montpellier).
Admittedly, Bublik is far better suited to the challenges of grass than clay. But he still looked mighty impressive when he dispatched of Andy Murray in the Newport quarterfinals. He is a massive server who can beat anyone if he gets that weapon rolling. But he does tend to serve a bunch of double-faults on this surface- obviously in a quest to prevent protracted rallies.
He has served 64 double-faults on clay in eight matches this year. That’s insane. He will need to serve at close to 70% this week if he stands any chance against Andrey Rublev.
The Verdict: Rublev to win in three sets at 16/5- Rublev has dominated this head-to-head rivalry, leading the Kazakh 3-0 this far. Having said that, their last meeting came back in 2020.
Bublik has evolved considerably since then and could pose a greater threat to the Russian. Bublik’s crazy use of drop-shots and underarm serves could throw Rublev out of his baseline-hugging comfort zone.
Round of 16 – Hamburg European Open
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (1/5) vs Jozef Kovalik (3/1)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina rivals Alexander Bublik in terms of wild inconsistency. The 23-year-old Spaniard is almost the male version of Jelena Ostapenko.
He swings wildly from the fences and this has resulted in a season of crazy results. He reached his maiden ATP Tour final at the Monte-Carlo Masters. It was a week where his aggression paid off to ultimate effect.
One would have thought that result would have been the kickstart to more consistency for Fokina. But he has been 7-8 since Monte-Carlo (including a disappointing round of 16 defeat in Sweden last week). But he is fresh off an impressive straight sets victory against Botic van de Zandschulp. It was actually a crazy match.
Davidovich Fokina was broken twice in each set but still managed to ease past the Dutchman. This highlights both Fokina’s wild unpredictability and enigmatic talent.
Jozef Kovalik is your prototypical journeyman professional. The 29-year-old Slovakian has never been able to fully establish himself at the full ATP Tour level. Having said that, he is an accomplished clay-court specialist at the Challenger and Futures level.
In fact, 19 of his 23 finals at the lower level have come on clay. Including qualifying this week, he has won eight of his last ten matches. This includes his come-from-behind first-round victory against teenage wildcard Max Hans Rehberg. That means he does arrive in decent form. Furthermore, this tournament is the site of one of his crowning moments at full ATP Tour level.
He reached the semi-final here in 2018 (losing to defending champion Leonardo Meyer). This combination of decent form and court history makes him a compelling underdog this week.
Verdict: Kovalik to win at 5/1- This will be the first career meeting between these two.
Sometimes in life you just have to go for the crazy result. There’s just enough evidence here to suggest an upset could be on the cards. Kovalik has reached the semi-finals here in the past and he looks to be in a decent vein of form. Furthermore, Davidovich Fokina can always be relied upon to drop in an absolute stinker.
The Spaniard will probably easily dispatch of the Slovak. But there’s enough here to warrant the sly underdog bet (especially at that price).
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