Damien Kayat previews the 2022 Australian Open Women’s Final as Ashleigh Barty goes up against Danielle Collins.
Ashleigh Barty – 19/100
Ashleigh Barty has underlined her status as the world’s best player with a devastating fortnight in Melbourne. She came into this match in fine form following victory in Adelaide.
And she has gone from strength to strength, dropping just 21 games in her six matches thus far. Her semi-final win against Madison Keys took her unbeaten 2022 streak to ten matches.
It has been a serving masterclass from Barty, who has only been broken once the entire fortnight. She only lost ten points on serve against Madison Keys in the semi-final.
This dominance on serve gives her the security to play more aggressively on return. She plays wonderfully sound percentage tennis. She frustrates more aggressive opponents with her backhand slice and awkward angles. She just needs to keep that serve purring and she will be hard to break down.
This could be a monumental week for Barty. Victory here would give her a 3rd Slam and the chance of completing a Career Slam in New York later this year. But victory here also has national significance, as it would make her the first Aussie woman to win this title since Chris O’Neil in 1978.
Sure, she has looked absolutely unflappable this week. But could the pressure of a nation’s collective expectation weigh her down? She will be looking to take down her 4th consecutive American opponent in 27th seed Danielle Collins.
Danielle Collins – 15/4
2020 Aussie Open semi-finalist has been the inevitable surprise package in the women’s draw. But this isn’t a surprise package ala Emma Radacanu or Jelena Ostapenko.
Many saw her as a real dark horse contender this year. She has been one of the most consistent players on the WTA Tour since undergoing surgery for endometriosis last April.
Her record since that surgery is 36-10, including her first two titles in Palermo and San Jose. Still, few could have expected the juggernaut we have witnessed at this year’s championships.
She has dropped just one set this year, using her full-throttle style to pulverize and demoralize opponents.
I was really surprised with how easily she overcame the pugnacious Iga Swiatek. She was particularly brutal on the second serves, winning an astonishing 86% of the Pole’s 2nd deliveries.
She just stepped inside the baseline and took the ball early. This aggression has been key to Collins’ magnificent run. Unlike Barty, Collins will be playing with a relative degree of freedom. As a result of her exploits this week, she is already guaranteed to enter the WTA top 10 for the first time in her career.
Verdict: Collins to win at 15/4
Unsurprisingly, Ashleigh Barty leads Collins 3-1 in their head-to-head meetings. But if you do a bit of digging, you will find that this rivalry is in reality much closer. Interestingly, their last two meetings came in Adelaide.
Barty edged Collins in three tight sets in 2020. But the American avenged that defeat last year, comfortably beating the Aussie in straight sets. This one is very delicately poised.
Barty is a clear favourite and will look to dictate on her serve. She has already shown (with the likes of Anisimova and Keys) that she loves playing aggressive baseliners who try to hit winners non-stop.
But it’s been her consistent serve that has really allowed her to dictate the tempo of matches. I just have a feeling that she may struggle to replicate that consistency in this high-pressured environment.
Collins has married precision to power in this year’s championships and I think she makes great value as an underdog here.
Bet on the 2022 Australian Open Women’s Final at www.hollywoodbets.co.uk or www.hollywoodbets.ie
