Rafa Nadal faces off against Matteo Berrettini and Stefanos Tsitsipas goes up against Danil Medvedev in the 2022 Australian Open semi-finals.
Rafa Nadal 8/15 | Matteo Berrettini 13/8
Every single player in this year’s 2022 Australian Open semi-finals has been put through the physical wringer this year. It has made for wonderfully compelling entertainment and we should suspect equally arduous semi-final clashes.
Rafa Nadal has looked largely untroubled in his quest to win his first Aussie Open title since 2009. The Spaniard dropped just one set leading into his quarterfinal clash against the enigmatic Denis Shapovalov.
And he looked serene in the opening stages against the Canadian, racing to a two-set lead. But the Canadian fought back in his typically mercurial style, taking advantage of Nadal’s escalating stomach issues.
Nadal managed to pull through, saying that he felt physically destroyed after the match. He is going to need a quick physical turnaround if he wishes to keep his bid for a record-setting 21 Grand Slam title alive.
Nadal is unbeaten in 2022 and will look to contain the dangerous Berrettini with his criminally underrated serve.
Matteo Berrettini has proven to be the ironman of this year’s Championships. He has survived two four-set clashes and two marathon five-set epics. He managed to survive the heavy-hitting onslaught of Carlos Alcaraz Garfia in the 3rd round.
He then survived a real scare from the experienced Monfils, who almost came back from two sets down in their quarterfinal clash. Not only did Berrettini have to overcome the ungainly Frenchman, he also had to placate a crazy crowd that flirted with boorishness.
The spectators were clearly Monfils’ corner and this spilled over into some unsavoury post-match jeers. Honestly, this year has felt much more akin to the accepted lunacy that is experienced at Flushing Meadows.
It’s probably a holdover of Covid restrictions (no doubt amplified by the entire Djokovic debacle). Nevertheless, Berrettini became the first Italian male to reach the Aussie Open semi-finals.
Last year’s Wimbledon semi-finalist has become a Grand Slam staple (he has a 19-3 record in his last four Slams).
Verdict: Nadal to win the 2022 Australian Open semi-finals in four sets at 5/2
Nadal won their only previous encounter at the 2019 US Open. It will be interesting to see how each of these men is able to physically handle this high-octane match.
Rafa’s stomach issues have been well documented and will present some issues. But Berrettini also has a history of injury issues, pulling out of last year’s Aussie Open and ATP Finals with abdominal problems.
Berrettini plays one way: all-out action. If Nadal leaves anything remotely short, he will be there to jump on it. His massive forehand will dictate periods of this match.
But his much weaker backhand side could be key to this match. You can expect the wily Nadal to hone in on this side. Expect plenty of crosscourt forehands and sliced serves out wide.
Stefanos Tsitsipas 2/1| Danil Medvedev 38/100
When Tsitsipas underwent elbow surgery at the end of last year, his doctor said it was highly unlikely that he would make it to the 2022 Australian Open. It is a testament to his powers of determination that the Greek has performed so well.
Much like the other semi-finalists, it has not been plain sailing for last year’s Roland Garros runner-up. In fact, his emphatic victory over Jannik Sinner was his first straight-sets in this year’s tournament.
He made Sinner look like a young upstart, playing near-perfect tennis. His serve has been particularly impressive, allowing him to set up far more free points than even a year ago.
It seems as if he has exorcised the demons that have plagued him since losing to Djokovic in last year’s French Open final. Now he has the chance to get vengeance against his conqueror in last year’s semi-final: Danil Medvedev.
Medvedev staged arguably the comeback of the tournament in his quarterfinal, roaring back from two sets down against Auger Aliassime (which will have done nothing for the Canadian’s already battered self-confidence).
It was actually amazing to watch how the game evolved. Medvedev looked shattered in the early stages, seemingly resigned to his fate against the focused Auger Aliassime.
But then everything changed. There was something Djokovic-esque about the way that Medvedev slowly figured the Canadian out. His mid-match decision to suddenly come roaring to the net completely bamboozled Auger Aliassime.
It was yet another indication of the tennis intelligence that has come to define Medvedev. He will need to cut down on those pesky double-faults if he wishes to progress to his 2nd consecutive Aussie Open final.
Verdict: Medvedev to win the 2022 Australian Open semi-finals in five sets at 9/2
This one is very hard to predict. Medvedev has a commanding 6-2 head-to-head record against Tsitsipas. But the Greek did win their last encounter at last year’s French Open (though the red clay would have obviously suited Tsitsipas).
This has the making of a classic that could go all the way. I expect Tsitsipas to come out roaring ala Felix Auger Aliassime. But I still fancy ironman Medvedev to pull through in a marathon match.
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