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2022 ATP Tour – French Open Best Bets

2022 ATP Tour
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Damien Kayat previews the selected round 2 matches of the 2022 ATP Tour – French Open between Frances Tiafoe vs David Goffin as well as Danielle Collins and Shelby Rogers on  26 May 2022.

Frances Tiafoe (24) (6/5) vs David Goffin (13/20) -2022 ATP Tour – French Open

In the past I have waxed lyrical about the enigma that is Frances Tiafoe.  I thought he would be the next best thing after he winning that 2018 Delray Beach title.  But he has struggled for consistency throughout his young career.  I think he has been overly dependent on that gargantuan serve and forehand.  He has lacked variety and dimension when Plan A doesn’t succeed.  Still, Plan A can be effective if that first-serve percentage is up. 

This year has been a perfect distillation of his career.  He had reached one quarterfinal in seven events leading into Estoril.  Then he exploded into life with a run to the final.  That was actually his 2nd Estoril final (he also lost the 2018 final).  This indicates that he has some ability on clay.  He uses an unorthodox amount of topspin on his forehand.  This gives him better variety than some of the flatter American hitters off that wing.  But amazingly, opening victory over Bonzi was his first main-draw victory at the French Open in seven attempts.  That is unbelievable for a player with his potential and clay-court credentials. 

David Goffin is like the little engine that could.  Much like David Ferrer- a player from a previous generation- Goffin has punched above his weight with a lack of true firepower.  But the Belgian has forged a respectable career for himself in the age of the ‘Big Three’.  The fact that he has never surpassed the quarterfinal stage in 41 previous highlights his limitations.  He has stayed relevant by mastering fringe events. 

Much like Tiafoe, Goffin has enjoyed a middling season punctuated by one stellar result.   He was 4-9 going into the Grand Prix Hassan (his first clay-court event of the year).  He went on to win his 6th career title despite not being seeded.  He has actually looked better since the switch to clay.  His biggest individua; moment of the year was arguably his three-set defeat to Nadal in Madrid.  He actually blew four match-points against clay-court god Rafa Nadal. 

Perhaps the strength of that performance is mitigated by the fact that Nadal was under an injury cloud.  He needed four sets to get past lowly Lehecka in his opening match here.  It’s really hard to gauge Goffin. 

The Verdict- 2022 ATP Tour – French Open

Tiafoe to win in four at 6/5- Goffin holds a 3-1 head-to-head record against Tiafoe.  To be fair, their last meeting came at the 2019 Miami Open.  And they have never met on a clay-court.  This is a tight one.  It all depends on how well Taifoe serves.  If his first-serve percentage goes down, I fully expect Goffin to attack the weakest part of his game.  But I just have the feeling this could be a watershed moment for Tiafoe. It’s time for him to fulfill his potential and look for him to overpower Goffin in four. 

Danielle Collins (9) (32/100)  vs Shelby Rogers (12/5) – 2022 ATP Tour – French Open

This all-American clash could be fascinating.  It’s little secret how much I admire Danielle Collins.  I was impressed by the way she bounced back from endometriosis surgery last year, winning back-to-back titles at the Palermo Ladies Open and Silicon Valley Classic. 

I have picked her as one of my dark horse selections despite her relative lack of clay-court form.  Collins obviously made a huge breakthrough earlier this year by reaching her maiden Grand Slam final in Melbourne.  But since then, her form has been humdrum. 

The likes of Sofia Kenin and Madison Keys have shown that many American players save their best tennis for the Slams.  Collins has shown her Grand Slam mettle before, reaching the Aussie Open semi-finals in 2018 and the quarters here in 2020.  Collins is a fighter who thrives on the big stage.  She probably hits the ball harder than 90% of the women out there.  She destroyed little-known Tomova in her first-round match and will likely face a sterner test in Shelby Rogers.   

Shelby Rogers is not enjoying her greatest season.  Something of a journeywoman, Rogers has stumbled to a 6-9 year going into this year’s French Open.  But those stats conceal how dangerous Rogers can be in these Slams. 

She has developed a penchant for taking down big-name opponents on the biggest stage.  She beat Simona Halep at the 2017 Aussie Open and Ashleigh Barty at last year’s US Open (when Barty was indisputably the world’s best player).  She also beat Petra Kvitova at both the 2016 French Open and 2020 US Open (on both occasions reaching the quarterfinal stage).  Rogers even beat Serena Williams at the 2020 Top Seed Open.  She is a giant-killer who thrives on operating under the radar.  Could she prematurely end Collins’ quest to reach successive Grand Slam finals? 

The Verdict – 2022 ATP Tour – French Open

Collins to win in straight-sets at 17/20- These two have met twice before, sharing the spoils in matches that were played last year.  Collins easily dispatched of Rogers at Stanford before having to withdraw from their Cincinnati clash.  I know I was biggin up Rogers’ chances there.  But I don’t think she has a chance against a motivated Collins.  Collins is just a better version of Rogers in every department.

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