This fixture is essentially a play-off game with the winner virtually guaranteed second spot in Pool A and a quarter-final date with one of South Africa or Scotland.
New Zealand v Italy
Friday 29 September
Groupama Stadium
New Zealand 1/150 | draw 28/1 | Italy 13/1
The Azzurri have a massive task on their hands if they are to upset the All Blacks this Friday evening. The Italians have never beaten the Kiwis, who have won all 15 clashes between the sides. The reading gets even uglier for fans of the Azzurri when you take a look at the last two games between the sides with New Zealand beating them 3-66 in Rome back in 2018 and 9-47 in the same city in 2021.
While the above statistics will not comfort Italian fans, there is some hope for them in the fact that their side has come on in leaps and bounds since their last defeat to New Zealand. While this isn’t necessarily indicated by their results in 2023 – their only wins leading into the World Cup came against a struggling Japanese outfit and minnows Romania – they have put in some encouraging displays against Tier 1 European opposition.
The Azzurri have also enjoyed a solid start to their World cup campaign beating Namibia 52-8 and then a dangerous Uruguayan outfit 38-17.
While Italy are unbeaten in their opening two World Cup fixtures, the All Blacks have won one and lost one going down 27-13 to France in the tournament opener before beating Namibia 71-3.
The All Blacks have struggled for consistency this term, however, winning the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup without suffering a defeat and then being hammered by the Springboks 7-35 in their final World Cup warm-up fixture.
In terms of team news for this one, New Zealand will be without prop Ethan de Groot, who copped a three-match ban for a dangerous tackle against Namibia while Tyrell Lomax and Shannon Frazell should come back into the equation this weekend with their injuries ruling them out of the first two fixtures.
Italy lost hooker Luca Bigi but have an able replacement in the form of Zebre hooker Marco Manfredi, who was called up to the squad a day ago.
I’m expecting a massive performance from the Kiwis here. They need to start hitting their straps and they tend to do just this the deeper into a tournament they get. While the handicap is a big one, I’ll be backing the southern hemisphere side to clear it.
Verdict: New Zealand (-26.5) 17/20
