It's been an odd gap between Webb Ellis Cups with a global pandemic and an early pool announcement having a major impact on the set-up of the 10th edition of the world's pinnacle rugby tournament.
Regardless of the influence of the above factors will have on the tournament, it should still be a cracker with the home nations fans fully behind the sport due to the resurgence of their national team.
Darry Worthington takes a look at the pools and gives his verdict on who he thinks will reign supreme in France.
To Win Tournament Outright
New Zealand 11/4
France 3/1
Ireland 9/2
South Africa 10/3
Pool Previews
For the pool previews, the sides with a better chance of winning the tournament will have a more in-depth write-up while the minnow outfits will be glanced over.
Pool A
France 3/1
The host nation comes into this one as second favourite with the books to win their first-ever Webb Ellis Cup. In truth, however, if they were any nation other than France they would probably be labelled tournament favourites.
Les Bleus have enjoyed a great build-up to the 2023 World Cup bagging the 2022 Six Nations title as well as registering wins over southern hemisphere heavyweights New Zealand, Australia and South Africa.
While past French teams have flattered to deceive at Rugby World Cups or fallen at the last hurdle, this French outfit looks like it could well go all the way.
They are not reliant on any single player – although their halfback Antoine Dupont is a class apart – as they have an insane squad depth and most of their players have come through a highly successful Under 20’s program that saw them win multiple Junior Championships. Unlike past French outfits, this is a side that knows how to win silverware.
They have suffered a massive blow with Toulouse fly-half Romain Ntamack out of the tournament due to a knee injury. They are, however, blessed to have a lot of talent in reserve and while no fly-half in the country is as good as Ntamack, they do have some solid replacements to call upon.
Italy 500/1
The Azzurri have come on in leaps and bounds over the past couple years, and are no longer the whipping boys of the Six Nations. While they don’t win a lot of games in Europe’s premier tournament, they are able to give the big guns a run.
They’ve also had a decent build-up to France ’23, running Scotland close in their opening World Cup warm-up game and then giving a solid account of themselves against the Irish in their second warm-up fixture.
They face the tough task of getting out of Pool A with a resurgent All Blacks side and a brilliant French outfit likely to be the two sides to advance. However, there should be some solace for the Italians who will likely claim wins over minnows Uruguay and Namibia.
New Zealand 11/4
The Kiwis are back! Well, it seemed that way until the Springboks demolished them at Twickenham two weeks before the tournament kicked off.
Ian Foster’s men enjoyed a great start to their 2023 campaign beating arch-foes South Africa, neighbours Australia and South American outfit Argentina to claim yet another Rugby Championship. They also managed a clean sweep of the Bledisloe Cup as their second team just managed to pip Australia 23-20 in the second Test.
That defeat at Twickenham would have brought the squad back down to earth a bit. And while it’s obviously not ideal to suffer a record defeat on the eve of the World Cup, Ian Foster will at least be able to try iron out any issues in the two weeks before their tournament opener against the hosts.
While the Kiwis have blown hot so far this year, they have relied on some key players with Richie Mo’unga’s presence improving the side vastly. This was evident in Bledisloe 2 with the Crusaders kingpin coming on to help his side complete their mammoth comeback. He hasn’t always produced on the biggest of stages but if he can carry his recent form over to the World Cup and stay fit, then the Kiwis have a massive chance of being the first side to claim four Webb Ellis Cups.
Uruguay 1000/1
The South Americans will be looking to avoid hammerings at the hands of Italy, New Zealand and France and then claim a win over their fellow minnows Namibia. While a harsh statement, this is the reality for a side that still fields a number of semi-pros.
In fairness, the Uruguayans have made magnificent progress in recent years and qualification for France ’23 is a mean feat in itself.
They have enjoyed a decent build-up to this campaign beating fellow South Americans, Chile 26-25 and Namibia 26-18 in warm-up fixtures.
Namibia 1000/1
The Southern Africans will be looking for their first-ever World Cup win in what will be their ninth tournament appearance. However, their only opportunity to achieve this will come against Uruguay.
They have a handy enough squad with loads of players plying their trade in South Africa’s domestic leagues but they are still far behind the big guns in this pool and I would not be surprised to see them ship 70-80 points against New Zealand and France, who have hammered them by similar margins at previous World Cups.
Pool B
Ireland 9/2
The world’s number one ranked side come into this one as only fourth favourites to claim their first-ever World Cup. This is mainly due to the fact that they have butchered some brilliant chances of lifting the Webb Ellis Cup before and have never made it further than the quarter-final phase of the tournament.
This Irish side will fancy their chances of breaking the drought, however, especially after grabbing some real confidence-boosting results last year, including a series win in New Zealand.
Hopes of the Cup visiting the Emerald Isle for the first time will likely hinge on the fitness of veteran pivot Johnny Sexton. There’s a massive gulf in class between himself and the next flyhalf off the rank. Should he avoid injury, Ireland’s chances will improve tenfold.
There’ll certainly be a few alarm bells ringing, however, after a shocker of a performance against Samoa in their final warm-up game, which they edged 17-13. Keep in mind that this Irish side was only missing one or two of their big guns.
Romania 1000/1
The second lowest-ranked team in the tournament will make a return to rugby’s biggest showcase having missed the 2019 edition after being disqualified for fielding unregistered players.
They’ve managed to win five games at the eight World Cups they have attended but they may well struggle to bag a sixth win this year with Tonga looking solid, having nationalised a number of highly talented former All Blacks and Wallabies.
The Romanians are a physical side, however, and the other four teams in their pool will know they’ve had a game when the final whistle goes on the days they take on the Eastern Europeans. They were duly walloped by the Italians in a warm-up game and may end up being the side with the worst points differential in the tournament.
Scotland 40/1
The Scots are proper dark horses for this one with their talented side capable of ruffling a few feathers in this group.
They enjoyed a decent enough Six Nations campaign finishing the tournament in third and have gone alright in their warm-up matches beating Italy and an understrength France outfit.
As noted earlier, they have a really talented side but they are lacking squad depth. An injury to the likes of Duhan van Der Merve or Finn Russel, especially the latter, could sink their chances of advancing from the pool.
Gregor Townsend’s men will also be without one of their elder statesmen as Stuart Hogg announced his retirement from rugby just a few weeks ago.
South Africa 10/3
The reigning world champions will be looking to repeat the feats of the class of 2007 and bag a World Cup title on French shores.
The Boks used the close of 2022 and the start of 2023 to blood new players and this is seen in the mixed bag of results they have produced. A second-placed finish fielding two squads at the Rugby Championship is nothing to sneeze at, however, and they did accomplish their goal with Manie Libbok and Grant Williams both performing admirably.
The South Africans have a vastly experienced squad with a number of players having been a part of the 2019 win in Japan.
One concern for the South Africans is the absence of Handre Pollard who – while still on stand-by and possibly able to come into the squad after the tournament has kicked off as injury cover- missed out on the original World Cup squad. His goal-kicking and ability to marshal his backline was so crucial to South Africa’s 2019 win. And while Libbok offers solid back-up, he is not yet on the same level as the veteran fly-half.
Many of these injury fears would have been allayed after inflicting a record defeat on the All Blacks in their final warm-up game. That they were missing a number of key players made the feat all the more impressive.
Pollard wasn’t the only big gun to be put on stand-by with Lukanyo Am. Thomas du Toit and Lood de Jaeger all deemed not fit enough to travel to France. With Rassie Erasmus still heavily involved, the original squad announcement may have been a spot of gamesmanship or perhaps a way to include a bigger playing pool with all those on stand-by still able to link up with the squad should a player get injured.
The South Africans’ biggest test will come against the Irish in this pool. A loss may not be the worst thing, however, as they would face either New Zealand or France in the quarters should they do what is predicted and finish first or second in their pool.
Tonga 500/1
While I can’t see them advancing from this pool, the Tongans will certainly be interesting to watch this year with the Pacific Islanders set to name a squad featuring former Wallabies Adam Coleman and ex-All Blacks George Moala and Ben Tameifuna, Malakai Fekitoa, Charles Pitau and Vaea Fifta.
This Tongan side could be pretty dangerous for the big guns as they won’t just be able to field a second-strength side and canter to a win. Tonga will give them a real stern test which means less rest time for the South African and Irish stalwarts.
Pool C
Australia 11/1
Eddie Jones’ men may be the highest-seeded side in the pool but progression out of it is not a given with Wales potentially on the up and up and Fiji getting better with every outing.
The Wallabies have struggled since Jones took over the coaching reigns and are currently 0/5 in 2023 having lost all their Rugby Championship fixtures and another loss to New Zealand in their Bledisloe 2 fixture as well as a hammering at the hands of France in a warm-up game. And while they did decently against New Zealand in their second Bledisloe clash, they were unable to hold on for the win and ended up going down by three points to a greatly weakened Kiwi outfit.
The Aussies do have some serious talent on their hands though with young backs Mark Nawaqanitawase, Tate McDermott, Carter Gordon and Jordan Petaia showing promise in both Super Rugby Pacific and the Rugby Championship. They also have some wily old veterans in their squad with Marika Koroibete, Samu Kerevi, James Slippera and Will Skelton all having plenty of World Cup experience.
Unfortunately for Wallabies fans, veteran flanker Michael Hooper was dealt a cruel blow as he has been left out of the squad due to fitness issues, while Quade Cooper was surprisingly left out as well.
Fiji 100/1
The Fijians could well cause an upset here and knock the Welsh or Australians out at the pool phase. They have come on leaps and bounds in the past two years with the presence of the Drua in Super Rugby Pacific providing a great platform for their players to gain vital experience against some of the top names in the game.
The Fijians were all-conquering in the recently concluded Pacific Nations Cup beating Samoa, Japan and Tonga by comfortable margins. While they were still at their free-running best but their set-piece play and game management has improved drastically over the past couple of years.
This improvement in their all-round game reaped dividends as they shocked England at Twickenham, beating Steve Borthwick’s men 30-22. Their 150/1 price tag might just entice a few punters to have a nibble.
The Fijians also have some serious talent on their books with Semi Radradra and Josua Tuivosa and Levani Botia household names across the globe.
Georgia 500/1
The Georgians are another team that could well throw the cat amongst the pigeons in this pool. The Eastern European outfit are known for their physicality and solid scrum but they have added other strings to their bow in recent years with their backline now capable of giving the ball some air.
The Georgians illustrated that they are too good to be playing in the Rugby Europe’s second-tier competition – basically the second division of the Six Nations – as they swept away all in sundry beating Germany, Portugal, Romania, Spain and the Netherlands with ease.
They will be relishing their chance to go at it with the big guns and especially Wales, whom they beat 12-13 back in December 2019. While they are unlikely to get out of this pool, they could have a huge say in which side does.
While comfortably beaten by 33-6 by Scotland in their final warm-up game, their first-half performance in that fixture would have the Eastern Europeans plenty of encouragement.
Portugal 1000/1
The new boys on the block face an uphill battle here but they will be happy to make their return to the World Cup for the first time in 16 years.
Ironically, Portugal’s last appearance was at France 2007 where they finished their pool campaign with zero wins from four games and had averaged a concession rate in excess of 50 points per game. With this pool featuring some seriously talented sides, Portugal might once again have cricket scores put over them.
Wales 40/1
Good news for those of a Welsh persuasion as it seems your team may well be on the up after a dire Six Nations campaign that saw the Dragons finish fifth.
It’s been a tough couple of years for Welsh rugby with their union hoping from one crisis to the next and their playing personnel suffering a shock defeat at the hands of Italy in the 2022 Six Nations.
There have been encouraging signs in recent weeks for the Dragons, however, with a warm-up win over the old enemy England illustrating that their young talents are ready to step up and be counted in 2023. Their heavy defeat against the Springboks a week later wouldn’t have been too concerning, with that side made up of largely second-string players.
They do face a tough task getting out of this pool though, as Fiji have beaten them in a World Cup staged in France while Georgia also got one over them in the 2019 Autumn Nations series.
Pool D
Argentina 25/1
Los Pumas are an absolute enigma and they could well crash and burn in this Pool or end up topping it, such has been their inconsistency under the stewardship of former Wallabies head coach, Michael Cheika.
The Argentines have been dealt a rather kind hand in this pool with the Japanese looking a shadow of the side that made the 2019 Rugby World Cup quarter-finals while England are struggling for form and Samoa – while loaded with some very talented players who have become available due to the IRB’s eligibility laws – are still far from the finished product.
Cheika has selected a vastly experienced squad that features World Cup veterans Agustin Creevy, Julian Montoya, Nicholas Sanchez and Juan Imhoff. Should the they finish first or even second in the pool they face either Australia, Wales, Georgia or Fiji and they’ll certainly fancy their chances of advancing to the semis with a win over one of those outfits.
Chile 1000/1
The lowest-ranked side at the tournament, Chile will be looking to avoid drubbings at the hands of their pool mates.
This will be a venture into the unknown for the Chileans as this will be their World Cup debut. Their qualifying run for France ’23 was very impressive as they beat North American heavyweights the United States and Canada on the way to securing passage to the global showpiece.
While Chile are likely to receive a few pastings at the hands of their opposition in Pool B, it’s an achievement on its own making it to France.
England 14/1
All is not well with English rugby. They looked an unbalanced outfit throughout the 2023 Six Nations where they only won two games and ended up finishing fourth.
Matters came to a head more recently after they suffered their first-ever defeat at the hands of Fiji in a poorly attended game at Twickenham.
While coach Steve Borthwick will look at the Six Nations as merely a staging ground for the World Cup, the defeat against eh Pacific islanders would have knocked the wind right out of their sails.
There were plenty who thought that they’d make it out of this pool at the very least, that defeat against Fiji will
Japan 400/1
Like England, Japan have regressed since their 2019 World Cup heroics, which is fully understandable given they have lost some crucial players over the past four years.
They head to France off the back of a poor Pacific Nations Cup which saw them beaten by Fiji and Samoa as well as run close by Tonga. While the results will be concerning for the Japanese brain’s trust, what will be of more worry for them will be their discipline with the Brave Blossoms shown red cards in their Pacific Nations Cup games against Tonga and Fiji.
I simply cannot see this Japanese side getting close to the knock-out phase and they may well suffer another defeat at the hands of Samoa.
Samoa 500/1
Samoa will bring a loaded squad to the World Cup which features former New Zealand Steven Luatua, Lima Sopoaga and Charlie Famuina as well as ex-Wallaby Christian Leali’ifano.
The Samoans have always been known for their physicality at World Cups but now they have some guile as well, as evidenced by their outrageously good performance against Ireland in their final warm-up game. They way they decimated the Irish scrum at time will more than worry the likes of Argentina and England.
Value Bet
Argentina
This is a massive hit and hope but Los Pumas are on the kind side of the draw and the price is certainly right as they are trading in the 20’s to claim their first ever World Cup.
As touched on earlier, the South Americans face an easy enough run to the quarters with Australia, Wales or possibly Fiji their opponents for the quarters.
While their semi-final will opponents will probably be one of the four tournament favorites, you cannot write-off a semi-final upset and then it would be over to the final where anything could happen.
I’m not massively strong on this one but do think at their current price Argentina offers great value especially considering they have beaten New Zealand a good couple of times in recent years.
To Win Tournament Outright
France
Le Bleu have fallen just short at numerous World Cups – 1999 and 2011 still rather fresh in the memory – but they will never get a better chance of winning a World Cup than this one as they have all the momentum going for them.
They may not be tournament favorites at the moment but they certainly have the best and deepest squad.
They found themselves on the wrong side of the draw, however, with a quarter-final clash against South Africa, Ireland or Scotland their destiny in the first set of knock-out fixtures. They have beaten all these sides over the past two years, however, and they’ll have a very vocal crowd behind them at every game they play.
I really do fancy the French to break their World Cup duck in their own back yard even with Romain Ntamack out of the picture.
