It was a mixed bag of results for Patches in Round 4 with the main puncture coming in the form of the Saracens match in which the minus 16.5 fell short by just two points.
However, this week I have a good bet to get us out of the “poor house”, carry on reading to find out.
Sale Sharks v Harlequins – Round 5
Sale scored a final try in injury time last week against the Cherry and Whites ensuring the gamble on Gloucester failed in fruition.
In fact, I still can’t quite believe that match, Gloucester were leading 33-15 with 5 min left and would have lost the game had the final conversion been kicked. It was an impressive fightback by Sale and despite missing a host of front liners they played far better than expected.
Meanwhile, there is no time to take a breath for the hosts as next up are none other than the Champions, Harlequins.
What an insane match last Friday night, trailing 0-21 to Bristol they simply slipped into another gear after HT and ran out easy 54-24-point winners. Surprisingly the last time Quins walked away with a win at Sale was in 2014.
Betting Angle
Sale Sharks fought back doggedly last week away to Gloucester and almost won the game with the final kick of the match. They played better than expected and may well be welcoming some personal back to the front lines which should help even further. They are normally a sound defensive unit at home but will be stretched by the free-flowing Harlequins attack.
The hosts welcome back Tom Curry and Manu Tuilagi, Quins have made 3 changes with Smith, Chisholm and Northmore starting. Sale are back at home and I’m expecting a big forward battle in game. If they decide to swing the ball they’ll play into the visitor’s hands. I’m prone to think they’ll play the former game plan and as a result can see them surprising Quins.
The referee is Tom Foley and the weather forecast is mostly sunny but chilly.
Patchy’s Pick: Sale plus 2.5 pts 17/20 @ Hollywoodbets for 3 units. Will also look at an unders quote if around the 55.5 pts for 2 units.
Newcastle Falcons v Bristol Bears – Round 5
The Falcons played so much better than I expected at the X-Stone Stadium and scored way too many points against Sarries for my liking, ensuring the handicap pick was forever on the back foot and it ultimately ran up short by 2 points.
They’re a decent side at home and will take a fair amount of confidence into this match against a Bristol side still struggling to regain their best form.
Betting Angle
It appeared as though the Bears had turned the corner after defeating Bath at home 25-20 and still so when racking up a 0-21 lead against Harlequins last weekend.
Then the implosion. They are side not to be trusted whilst Newcastle frustrated Saracens enough last week to show they have enough in the tank to steal a win and compound Bristol’s agony.
Referee is Christophe Ridley and the weather forecast predicts cloudy, chance of showers.
Patchy’s Pick: I had hoped for a slightly larger plus on the Falcons but am happy with plus 1.5pts at 17/20 @ Hollywoodbets for just the 1.5 Units.
Wasps v Exeter Chiefs – Round 5
Wasps put a poor first half against Saints last Sunday but turned a new leaf for the 2nd half in defeating the undefeated Northampton Saints. It was a decent enough performance, and they get to welcome the Chiefs who appear to be back to their best, as they crushed the Warriors last week 42-5.
Betting Angle
Surprisingly we have another team that has a good recent record against top class opposition, with Wasps winning the last two matches between these rivals at home 34-5 and 42-5.
Exeter were ruthless last week but will find it much tougher in Coventry. The handicap looks about right and won’t get too involved.
Referee is Wayne Barnes and the weather forecast is cloudy.
Patchy’s Pick: It’s yet another plus handicap the call, with 2.5 Units on Wasps plus 5.5 pts at 17/20 @ Hollywoodbets and with Wayne Barnes blowing there should be plenty of points. Any quote around 54.5 I’ll be looking to add an overs bet for 1.5 units.
Worcester Warriors v Leicester Tigers – Round 5
The Warriors after a fair bit of hype and an injection of some new players pre-season were woeful last week against Exeter and could only manage a solitary unconverted try in the entire match. They may well improve back at home but face the unbeaten Leicester Tigers and will start once again as underdogs.
Leicester were made to work hard for their victory last weekend against an improved Exiles side, they will be confident of making it 5 wins from 5 starts having a decent historical record over the Warriors over the years with 37 matches and 29 wins, quite some record.
Betting Angle
The Warriors will no doubt improve back at home and were so bad last week that they’ll probably been read the riot act during training these last few days. Leicester are unbeaten, hold a good psychological edge of the Warriors and knuckled down to beat the Exiles last week.
It’s not a game that interests me on the betting front with too many uncertainties and will stay away as a result.
Referee is Luke Pearce and the weather is cloudy.
Patchy’s Pick: No pick
Bath v Saracens – Round 5
Bath enjoyed a bye last weekend but will have to be in top form to pose a threat to Saracens. The latter were not at their best last week and it took a little time for them to hit their straps and as mentioned just failed to cover my biggest bet of the weekend.
Betting Angle
Surprisingly the hosts have won 3 of the last 5 matches played at The Rec. They return from a bye, not always a benefit but can take heart from some good historical performances. I was very disappointed by Sarries last week and am probably somewhat biased here in my prediction.
They were somewhat complacent against Newcastle at home last week but when they put their mind to it, they did pull away. Any complacency here could see them lose and I feel the hosts may just have enough in their armoury to pull off a shock.
Referee is Jack Makepeace and the weather is cloudy with showers.
Patchy’s Pick: Bath plus 7.5 at 15/20 @Hollywoodbets for just 2 units.
London Irish v Gloucester – Round 5
London Irish are eating into their home fixtures at a rapid rate and welcome the improvers Gloucester to the Brentford Community Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Their overall play improved last week, with good defence a highlight of their progress. However, this time around the penalties were a little silly at times and they went down by 5 points to the Tigers in a low scoring match.
Gloucester made it two wins on the trot and were cruising to a comfortable victory last week before a strong fightback by Sale. It’s a game they could have lost had the last try been converted and were in fact leading 33-15 with 5 min to go. Some implosion indeed, but whilst playing well they looked good with their B & I star Zammit scoring a brace of tries.
Betting Angle
London Irish are without a win in four games so far and despite picking up six points in their efforts so far, the pressure cooker must be close to bursting in the Exiles’ camp.
Gloucester are starting the game with confidence but must have the final stages of last week’s narrow win at the forefront of their minds.
You had to wait till the last item on the preview to find out that this is Patchy’s best bet of the weekend. It may not be the most obvious considering they are winless this season so far, but I feel with the improvement and the pressure mounting on all parties, it will enable this side to get over the line.
Referee is Karl Dickson and the weather is cloudy.
Patchy’s Pick: London Irish, 6 Units on the outright at 5/7. London Irish, 3 Units on minus 1.5 at 17/20. Both are available @ Hollywoodbets.
Follow Patchy on Twitter @BrenHBetsnet.
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