Round 12 and my best bet of the weekend is Gloucester on the handicap. However, it’s best to keep an eye on team news as late changes due to positive Covid tests could shift markets quickly.
Bristol v Sale – Round 12
Betting Angle
Bristol put up a brave fight at Sandy Park last week, despite being on the back foot for most of the game and even though losing their last 5 matches in the Premiership, there has been good improvement in their play over the last three weeks.
However, another tough match awaits them in the form of the Sale Sharks. The Sharks were easy winners against Wasps last Saturday but again showed their inability to cover their predicted handicap.
Weather = A little windy and showers.
Patchy’s Pick
Despite recent improvement from the Bears I think Sale may be too strong and I prefer the slight head start on the handicap. It’s not an overly confident call especially as the Bears should have huge home support for the game. So, for now 2 units Sale plus 4.5 points @17/20.
Harlequins v Exeter – Round 12
Betting Angle
What a match we have in store here!
Quins were made to work very hard last week against an excellent Gloucester and despite not being at their best they managed to squeeze out a narrow victory and showed just how hard a team they are to beat .
Their visitors are none other than Exeter who, on the face of things, made hard work in beating Bristol at Sandy Park last week. However, they are a class act and might have had one eye on this fixture instead.
Weather = Rain in the morning, clearing.
Patchy’s Pick
The last time these two met was in the final almost 7 months ago, where the score ended 40-38 in favour of Quin’s. With the possibility of some rain around, I can’t see such a try fest this time but I do think it’ll be just as close. The bookies agree.
However, I like Exeter here. They’ve shown that they are almost at their best but more importantly there is potential improvement to come and therefore Exeter plus 1.5 points at 17/20 for 3 Units is the pick.
Newcastle v Northampton – Round 12
Betting Angle
The Falcons were trounced 31-0 at Welford Road last week but that was their first game in a while and they should improve with that run under the belt.
Northampton’s season, meanwhile, is beginning to unravel fast, this after one of their better starts to a campaign. I can’t quite put my finger on it but it appears as though there is a lack of confidence and belief, that has taken over the camp. They have an opportunity here to get back to winning ways but it won’t be easy.
Weather = 80% chance of rain.
Patchy’s Pick
Despite an artificial pitch there could be a lot of rain about and that should mean low points and I’ll be on the unders around 47.5 with no rain about and 41.5 if it is pelting down. I’m surprised that the Falcons are slight favourites on what I’ve seen so far this season, so undecided on the outrights.
Saracens v Gloucester – Round 12
Betting Angle
Saracens continued their good form, scoring 24 unanswered points after going into the break 6 all away to the Saints last Sunday. They are unbeaten at home, winning 4 and drawing one.
Gloucester have enjoyed a sensational season so far and pushed Quins all the way last time out. They don’t have a good record away to Sarries though, which is a concern for them, with their best performance a 15-15 draw in 2012.
Weather = 40% chance of showers
Patchy’s Pick
In the largest handicap of the weekend Saracens have a 12-point handicap to overcome and on past history it looks very probable. However, this is a very good Gloucester side and I’m confident they’ll perform well. 3 Units on Gloucester plus 12.5 points @17/20.
Bath v Worcester – Round 12
Betting Angle
I had lined up the Bath plus 11.5 points against London Irish last weekend, but for the game to be cancelled as, evidently, Bath didn’t have enough suitable players to safely play the game. Hopefully a week later they are in a better place and once again will be itching for that first win.
The Warriors enjoyed a bye last week and have not had a good season either although they have though managed to win 3 games whilst Bath remain winless.
Weather = Light winds and dry
Patchy’s Pick
As a good friend of mine likes to refer to these sorts of matches as “it’s a rubbish v rubbish affair” and doesn’t deserve any money and he’s not wrong! We have Bath dreaming of that first win and the Warriors trying to redeem what was meant to be a promising season. I have to have a bet though, as I feel the Warriors with a 4.5-point head start is just too much. It’ll just be 2 Units though @ 17/20.
Wasps v Leicester – Round 12
Betting Angle
Wasps are still battling depth in a number of key positions and they have the unenviable task of hosting the unbeaten Tigers. There were moments last week where Wasps showed some flash but they’ll be up against a seemingly invincible Leicester here and barring a huge upset Leicester should win this comfortably.
Weather = Partly cloudy and dry
Patchy’s Pick
My first minus of the weekend takes centre stage here. Wasps are all at sea while the Tigers keep gathering momentum, so it’s Leicester minus 4.5 points for 3 Units @17/20.
Prices correct at time of writing.
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